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Punjabi: Russia and Ukraine War Like Situation

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Map of Ukraine as on July 17, 2022:

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Russia holds 20% of Ukraine's territory and is getting closer to full control of the Donbas which seems possible for the Russian army in the coming months. However, the new equipment received by the Ukrainian army is causing a problem for the Russian army. Seeing this Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu gave orders on Monday for missile and artillery weapons received as aid by Ukraine to be targeted before they can do more damage to Russian supply chains.

Even after taking the entire Donbas, the Russian army will have a hard time going any further and may go on till winter as a long war. The more time passes, the more difficult it will become for Russia to finance Putin's war. Probably this is what Zelinsky has in his mind to go into counter-offensive mode to recover territory. But will the West support Ukraine for so long? It is doubtful. better for Zelensky to go for negotiations now to avoid further destruction of his country.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Russian general Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi.captured in Ukraine
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He was the commander of the West Group, one of the four top Russian commanders in Ukraine. He was captured with his driver as he was trying to flee back to Russia in a stolen civilian car. He tried turning his epaulet stars sideways and claiming to be a LtCol, but his driver kept calling him “general.”
He has now disappeared from sight. But he has two choices. He can collaborate completely, or he can end up remanded to the Hague for war crimes trial before the International Criminal Court.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Saturday, 22 October 2022, 11:47

As the battle for Kherson rages on between Ukrainian and Russian forces in southern Ukraine, here's a brief update released twenty minutes ago by news outlets and war correspondents on the scene:

  • The war appears to be at a turning point with Kherson as the pivot. Ukrainian forces are still advancing on the city as Russian forces continue their evacuation of civilians. Experts say the outcome of the battle for Kherson will be a decisive factor in the war for months to come.
  • Russian media is reporting roughly 60,000 civilians and administrative staff are being moved from Ukrainian held territory on the Dnieper River's right bank to its other side. Most of the civilians are being moved against their will. It's unclear how many people remain on the right bank.
  • Ferries and pontoon crossings are being used by the Russians to cross the river due to bridges being destroyed by the Ukrainian military. The Antonivsky Bridge in particular has been repeatedly shelled by the Ukrainian military in recent days but is still slightly usable.
  • Military analysts are describing the situation as “of major significance ahead of winter and the most important battle for Ukraine to date.”
  • Analysts also warned Russian troops might still try using what remains of the Antonivsky Bridge for a counteroffensive attempt targeting Odesa which if successful would give Russia complete control of Black Sea access and reduce Ukraine to a land locked country.
  • Experts agree there are two significant signs Russia may be about to abandon the bridgehead at Kherson. The first being the aforementioned forced evacuation of civilians. The second that military “regroupings” are being actively discussed by Russian commanders in the field and on Russian social media platforms.
  • The Ukrainian military is also focused on shutting down a water canal that is the sole remaining source of water to the Crimean Peninsula. Reports tell of steady Ukrainian advances towards the canal
  • Austrian colonel and military historian Markus Reisner is quoted today as saying, “If the strategy of the Russians is to consolidate a strong line before the winter, it seems logical that they would abandon the west bank and return to the east bank," he said. “But this would also mean that Russia would not be able to attack Mykolaiv and Odesa from Kherson - at least for the time being.”
  • Experts are also agreeing that recent remarks made by Russian General Sergei Surovikin regarding the situation in southern Ukraine being "not easy" and he would not rule out “difficult decisions” confirm the Russian military is seriously considering a general retreat. However, the New York Times reported yesterday that Putin has repeatedly rejected requests from the Russian military to retreat from the Kherson area.
main-qimg-e453891af4e96e7537db0b57029649a6-pjlq

Graphics Courtesy DW Germany

Sources: The New York Times, DW Germany, The Washington Post, BBC, Politico
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Logical lessons from Russia Ukraine War

- Never underestimate Your Enemy.

-Assess and prepare well your forces before they are put to war

-prepare your own people for war.

-Propagate well about the necessity of war before you get into it.

- Win enough friends to be with you during war

-Communications must be quick and efficient

-You never know how good your army is until they are put in combat situations

-an army fighting for its home will be more motivated than the other army

-as in all wars, logistics are critical

-before going to war, make sure the goal is worth it

-see if your goal can be accomplished by means other than war

-the war will also be fought in the court of world opinion

-never underestimate how the rest of the world will respond

-Don’t wage war against your customers
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Ukraine had re-taken Kherson, and now Russia says Kherson is back in its control. Why Kherson is important?

main-qimg-b0ec0a31c997a87da02cfcc018cf7083-lq

Kherson

The importance of Kherson to Ukraine is that it’s a major port on the Dnipro river. The river runs from Kyiv down to the Black sea, it’s wide and slow, therefore it can act as a major transport artery that needs little infrastructure. Kherson could serve as a dock where barges from the river are unloaded and goods get transferred onto seagoing vessels.

Dnipro is also home to a number of hydroelectric dams, which reduce its potential as a traffic artery. Still, this is what made Kyiv viable as a major city in medieval times and it deserves a mention.

The second major importance in Kherson is its position on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro river. Russia had no other positions on that bank of the river since the first month of the war. As you can see in the image above, Dnipro is slow but wide, and as such a major barrier to any passing forces. If Russia is to take Ukraine, it must cross the Dnipro. With positions, including most of their capital, on the right bank of Dnipro, Ukraine remains defensible if it can hold the entire length of the river on at least one side. So long as Russian forces held Kherson, any future Russian offensive from that city was an existential threat to Ukraine. Furthermore, with Kherson occupied, the last two remaining seaports of Ukraine were Mykolaiv and Odesa. There are no major natural barriers between Kherson and Mykolaiv, so while Russian forces held Kherson, Mykolaiv was at constant risk as well. This risk has now abated.

In other words, the liberation of Kherson means Ukraine will remain a viable and defensible state after this war has ended. Whether they negotiate now or push to liberate more ground doesn’t make a difference in the key question: Ukraine will survive and Russia will not be able to hold a knife to its neck, not without committing far more resources than it already poured into this war.

This is the true importance of Kherson in the war. At Kyiv, Russia lost the ability to win the war quickly, at Kherson they lost the ability to win the war and return at a later date for the final blow. Now the most Russia can hope for is to retain control over small and strategically insignificant areas that have been depopulated and impoverished by the war.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Russian Withdrawal from Kherson
Russia's 20,000 troops with guns, tanks, etc were stuck up on the Ukraine side of the Dnieper river before vacating Kherson. Since the heavier bridge over the Dnieper was damaged boats were used though a footbridge existed. They pulled out in stages. The Ukrainian military had been reporting their withdrawal from Kherson for a couple of weeks and said they were concerned that it was a trick to lure Ukraine into the city. It was no artifice or deception. Just a simple retreat. An act that Russia has become very accomplished.

No doubt Putin realized that staying and fighting was a useless activity that would result in the loss of even more soldiers.
Russia's withdrawal caused around 4,000 soldiers casualties to them. This rate is unsustainable. No doubt Putin decided he could not afford to lose another 30–40,000 troops and pulled them back across the Dnieper.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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The best Russian troops were concentrated in Kherson, the 7th, 76th, and 98th air-assault divisions, and the 11th independent air-assault brigade. Altogether, 24 light infantry battalions, were reinforced with 7 artillery divisions and 8 "Rosgvardiya" battalions.

The Russians did not want to withdraw from Kherson. They tried a trap to defeat the Ukrainian troops, but they also had a plan B this time. The trap consists in drawing the Ukrainians towards a very well-defended Kherson and attacking them from the flanks. That is why the Russians cut off all means of communication in the area, hoping that the Ukrainians would not be informed. It didn't work, the Ukrainians have good spies in the area.

A large part of the Russian trap troops was in concentric trenches on the flood line of the Dnieper (a wrong tactical decision of General Surovkin). The Ukrainians made them a surprise: they used the Himars and attacked the downstream dam from Nova Kahovka. The bombardment was risky but they achieved exactly what they set out to do, a valve got blocked (but the dam was not destroyed), part of the water overflowed so that it flooded the trap trenches on the west bank of the Dnieper so that the Russian troops had to empty it. So they applied plan B and hastily evacuated Kherson, but they had a plan B to carry out the withdrawal. There are still Russian troops blocked and surprised on the western bank of the Dnieper.


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What is the state of the Russian army at this moment?

A month ago, 12 criminals recruited by the Wagner Group from the frontline in Bahmut, arrived in Russia, leaving behind a series of rapes, robberies, and murders. It was clear that the situation was getting out of control, which is why the Kremlin appointed General Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin, who 15 years ago founded the Russian Military Police.

Surovkin found a total disbandment: the Russian army discipline was a mess, looting was something normal, and even the thermopane windows of the apartments were stolen from Kherson. 11,452 dangerous criminals recruited by the Wagner Group 'fight' in Ukraine.

General Surovikin banned the sale and consumption of alcohol and established patrols, which arrested those caught drunk, looters, and those who were preparing to desert by abandoning their uniforms and stealing the boats of the locals. Russian forums are discussing 15 cases in which the Military Police shot soldiers and "Wagnerites" on the spot.

However, the new commander has not yet proven that he is either a strategic(he has already made several mistakes) or logistical genius, we will see if the implemented measures will be successful.


What will the Ukrainians do? It is premature and challenging to say. Until now in the last 6 months, they have outclassed the Russians in every single tactical and strategic decision.

Very likely, the Russian troops withdrawn from Kherson will be positioned exactly on the front's central attack line, which it is the most sensitive point. Penetration of the Ukrainians towards Mariupol or Melitopol as far as the Sea of Azov would determine a dramatic logistical situation for the troops protecting Crimea.

The Ukrainians can try to attract them and grind the Russian troops in the central area for another 3-4 months, or they can try to force the Dnieper (maybe it's cold and the river is frozen, I think the Ukrainians have the balls to cross). There is also a small chance that Surovkin will restore the morale of the Russian army and defeat the Ukrainians or at least stop them.

I don't think that the war will end quickly, nor that the Ukrainians are already victorious, but now they have the first chance. If they succeed in a quick penetration (and with few losses) to Mariupol, they have the best chance of liberating 90% of the territory except for Crimea.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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The latest updates are that Ukraine has taken back Kherson. Russia has been sustaining casualties of up to 1,000 per day. This amount is not sustainable and is impacting their ability to mount any offensive. Maybe, it is a result of sending marginal recruits into battle with little or no training. Ukraine is suffering from fatigue from the war but still pushing forward. Ukrainian intelligence thinks Putin may be putting them into a trap. So Ukraine is pushing forward cautiously.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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There has been evidence of Ukrainian special forces attack behind Russian lines several times in the past. One of the more prominent tax was in Crimea at the Saki Air Force Base. No doubt Ukrainian special forces are continuing their work behind Russian lines. However, the focus may not be on the supply trains.

1669211527927.png


Ukraine has been destroying rail lines and bridges with missiles to disrupt the supply of Russian troops. In addition, Ukraine has hit multiple Russian supply depots with missiles destroying them.

Ukraine would much rather use their missiles to destroy Russian supply, lines, and depos rather than use special forces. No doubt Ukraine is reserving the use of their special forces for more strategic missions. And their missiles are doing an excellent job of taking out Russian supply lines.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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'It is no time for war' Indian PM Modi rightly said. It is the time for negotiations, especially in the context of Russia Ukraine war. Ukrainian has lost its East while Russia has lost its war potential. The number of 100 Ukrainian soldiers killed each day is about accurate. And equally accurate is the assumption that this number of losses is not sustainable, at least not in the long term. Russian losses are many times more. They are even less sustainable, even with the considerably higher Russian population numbers. The advantage of Ukraine at the moment is its ability to conduct offensive combat operations. The Russians have lost this ability, all they can do is defend what they have gained. Ukraine also has a much better supply of arms and ammunition, mostly due to Western help. Ukraine is fighting on its own turf which means shorter supply routes and the ability to make use of (relatively immobile) home defense forces. The Russians, on the other hand, often have to transport their troops from Russian republics that are far away from the frontline. And, of course, a soldier that defends his homeland is higher motivated than a guy who has a family that lives thousands of miles away. For these reasons, it is only in the interest of both Russia and Ukraine that they start negotiations. Russian military operations have come to a total standstill and there’s nothing to gain for them in Ukraine anymore. It is difficult for Ukraine to save the lost land from the hands of Russia. The future looks bleak for both.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Petro Andriushenko, advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol, on his Telegram channel. Andriushenko has noted significant equipment and troop movements through Mariupol toward Huliaipole over the past week. large scale Russian troop movement has been seen towards Huliapole.

Russia has not relented its attacks on Ukeraine as is apparent from the news in Ukraine reporter Over the past day, Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Kurdiumivka, Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, Pidhorodne, Spirne, Stelmakhivka, and Yakovlivka settlements of Donetsk region. Nov 21, 2022, Ukraine reporter
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Can Mariupol be the next target for Urkeraine to liberate. Before Mariupol Urkeraine may prefer to take Melitopol. Mariupol’ is important but may not be immediate target. The most likely next target of an Ukrainian offensive, if it takes place in southern Ukraine, is the town of Melitopol’ even though, the stern defence of Mariupol’ overshadowed it whereas Melitopol’ fell without a shot being fired.

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As in the map above, Melitopol’ is a major crossroads and an important logistical hub for Russian forces. If Russia loses Melitopol, the only way to resupply forces in soutwestern Zaporizhia oblast and Crimea are the routes through Crimea, including the Kerch strait bridge. If Ukraine takes Melitopol’, it is likely to be able to continue south and liberate those regions as well. The Kerch strait bridge also becomes vulnerable to an attack from the north.

This could well be a major reason as to why Russia abandoned Kherson. Ukraine either amassed enough forces to seriously threaten Melitopol’, or else convinced Russian intelligence they have done so. This prompted Russians to evaluate their position, realize they can’t hope to defend both and rather than face strategic encirclement and defeat in both Melitopol’ and Kherson chose to abandon the latter and redeploy their forces to avoid disaster at Melitopol’.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Ukrainian counteroffensive in Lugansk
The Russians claim that a) the Russians were outnumbered eight to one, b) that NATO and “mercenary” troops were responsible, and c) that this was a planned withdrawal to “regroup.” The fact is that the Russians committed far too few troops to invade and hold the Ukraine without a huge popular uprising that never happened.

When the Ukrainians threatened a huge assault on the Kherson axis, the Russians committed their reserves to defend Kherson, leaving many weak spots in the Kharkiv axis. And the Russians had dispersed its artillery in ones and twos to avoid detection by drones and destruction by Ukrainian artillery.

While assaulting on the Kherson axis, the Ukraine also probed for weak spots in the Russian lines in the Kharkiv axis. And they found lots of them. In fact their reconnaissance found that many points were completely undefended. So the Ukrainians, who had been planning this all along, attacked in force at the weak spots in the Kharkiv axis.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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12:12 (IST) Nov 27
Russia's latest bombardment on Wednesday inflicted the worst damage so far in the conflict, leaving millions of people in Ukraine with no light, water or heat.

16:30 (IST) Nov 27
Pockets of shelling across Ukraine as wintry warfare looms
Shelling by Russian forces struck several areas in eastern and southern Ukraine overnight as utility crews continued a scramble to restore power, water and heating following widespread strikes in recent weeks, officials said Sunday. With persistent snowfall blanketing the capital, Kyiv, Sunday, analysts predicted that wintry weather — bringing with it frozen terrain and grueling fighting conditions — could have an increasing impact on the direction of the conflict that has raged since Russian forces invaded Ukraine more than nine months ago. But for the moment, both sides were bogged down by heavy rain and muddy battlefield conditions in some areas, experts said.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Putin has already achieved most of his goals (Donbass and the south) and the Ukranians probably don't have the strength to reconquer their territory.
On March 15, the battle map looked like this.
main-qimg-cfe10f32ab9b8ee4fb54ae7e85ff4ffb-lq

Above, red areas indicate Russian infestation. Note the significant ingress around Kyiv.
As of November 13, the battle map looks like this…
main-qimg-e682f35156b49487ca00539b96f94d7b-pjlq

Note that the North (Kyiv, Sumy) has been cleared of the Russian infestation. No Russian forces are anywhere near Kyiv. Blue areas (Kharkiv oblast, Kherson city) are recently reclaimed territories by Ukraine.
So, how long will the war last? Considering Russia has a weaker economy than Italy, and Ukraine is supported by 6 of the top 10 economies in the world (meaning Ukraine can hold out far longer than Russia). However, the sustenance and survivability of both countries are in danger hence both countries may not hang out for the war for long and may enter into negotiations. Since USA and Europe are behind Urkeraine involvement in the war, the talks of these countries will be an essential requirement for settling the issues. However, the USA may like to prolong the war to weaken Russia more in this proxy war in which it has committed weapons and funds. It is like the Vietnam war where Russia supported Vietnam against the USA and finally the USA had to draw a blank. The USA may want the same situation in Ukraine and hence may help prolong the war. But for the support of the USA and NATO, this war would not have go so far
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Bakhmut, a town of about 70,000 inhabitants until the beginning of the war, became one of the main skirmishes in the war. Since the fighting began, many residents have been killed and fled, many buildings have been destroyed - and many emphasize that the city is reminiscent of war photos from the First World War. For months, the armies of Russia and Ukraine have been fighting in the town of Akhmut in the Donetsk region - even though there is doubt about its strategic importance. 278 days to the start of the war in Ukraine, and one front in the fighting continues to bleed much more than any other. After the extensive campaign to liberate the territories of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, and later in the Kherson region - another front has been somewhat forgotten, and hardly receives any media coverage. The fighting in the Bakhmut sector of the Donetsk region has been going on intensively for many months, and so far has claimed the lives of hundreds of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers. A military hospital in Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, on Friday. Medics there say Russia’s. the assault has grown fiercer in recent days.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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The Ukrainian Air Force is melting away and the U.S. doesn’t want to send any A10 or F-16?
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The US announced the training of Ukrainian pilots in the F15 and F16 in July of this year.
The expectation was that the planes would be shipped to Ukraine after the training. but they haven’t.
On November 1, President Zelenskyy made another plea to the US for the F15 and F16’s.
“The Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are heroically fighting against the enemy which is significantly superior. They are doing so using obsolete equipment inferior to the newer aerial vehicles of the occupiers. They’ve already lost at least 500 helicopters and aircraft, yet these victories come at a high cost,” he stressed. But so far no aircraft. Ukraine may be winning too big. Biden wants to send the aircraft only if absolutely necessary in order to avoid possible escalation of the war.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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By invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin has taught important lessons to the NATO countries, but also to China of his great friend Xi Jinping.

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China realizes that Russia has become a medium military power. Without its nuclear weapon, Russia would no longer impress anyone. China also sees how NATO countries react to the dictator Putin.

China knows what will happen if it attacks Taiwan in an attempt to take control of it in the future. This gives the CCP time to prepare itself as well as possible. Because the West has put all its arguments on the table since the beginning of this war in Ukraine. There will be no more surprises for China.

On the side of the NATO countries, everyone realizes that Russia is not as powerful as announced, but that it remains an existential threat that requires the reinforcement of NATO, which implies getting back behind America. The Europeans hardly talk about their common defense policy, so dear to Macron...
Modi's remark that it is not the time for war may now be more applicable to China since it will think more seriously about attacking Taiwan.
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Friday, 2 December 2022, 04:15

The Ukrainian military is reporting Russian troops are abandoning positions and withdrawing some units in southern Zaporizhzhia. This after Ukrainian strikes on ammunition and troop depots. It also claims the Russians are evacuating "the personnel of the occupation administrations in the Zaporizhzhia region.”

The Ukrainian General Staff said in its daily report that Russian troops had left the settlements of Mykhailivka, Polohy and Inzhenerne, all towns south of Zaporizhzhia. The report also stated Russian units were establishing new front lines slightly behind the former along 200 kilometers of rolling farmland.

The general consensus of western analysts is that Ukraine appears to be employing strategies used in Kherson by striking bridges, supply hubs, and Russian troop concentrations behind enemy lines with heavy artillery and HIMARS. This was confirmed in part by the General Staff who said Ukrainian artillery has struck half a dozen equipment and supply depots while killing and wounding roughly 300 Russian soldiers.

Analysts also suggest Ukraine is preparing for their next big offensive move – a southern thrust toward the occupied city of Melitopol.

In a separate report the Ukrainian General Staff stated Russian forces had accidentally fired on their own units near the village of Tsukury in the Kherson region killing several of their own troops.

main-qimg-633e17d66b39514adac694045127acd0-lq

Sources: CNN, Kyiv Independent, The New York Times
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Russian -400 had fairly limited Ballistic Missile Defence capability. It lacks a hit-to-kill warhead, with the interceptors optimized largely for the anti-aircraft role. This combined with Russia’s little to no combat experience in BMD raised serious doubts. A glimpse of S-400’s real-world performance was seen right at the beginning of the Russian invasion when Ukraine attacked Millerovo air base in Russia, 60 km from the Ukrainian border using Tochka-U, a short-range ballistic missile from the Cold War era. The base was home to two Su-30SM squadrons and was protected by the 4th Air & Air Defence Forces comprising more than 10 S-400/S-300 units defending the Rostov Oblast.

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Aftermath of Ukrainian Tochka-U attack on Millerovo air base. February 25

Unfortunately for Ukraine, they had a fairly limited {censored}nal of Tochka-U with about 90 launchers that were a high-priority target for Russia. This combined with the poor accuracy of the missile (75–100 m) restricted their use early into the conflict.

When Ukraine started receiving M142 HIMARS launchers with GMLRS rockets, the Russian Air Defences proved to be ineffective. In about a week, HIMARS destroyed more than a dozen Russian ammunition depots and a similar number of Command posts. The S-300/400 already had a hard time dealing with outdated Tochka-U, with HIMARS the situation became so dire that it forced Russian commanders and personnel on the ground to publicly criticize the performance of Russian Air Defences.
 
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