Pakistan on Fire and Its Effects on India

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Pakistan on Fire and Its Effects on India

Dr Dalvinder Singh Grewal

Prof Emeritus Desh Bhagat University​

After the arrest of Pakistan's previous PM Imran Khan, his party PTI workers torched important buildings in Pakistan. These included the residence of Corpse Commander in Lahore, Army Hqs, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif's Model Town Lahore residence the ruling PML-N Secretariat in Model Town, 14 government installations/buildings including Pakistan Radio building, and 21 police vehicles in Punjab during the last two days. Fires could be seen in other major cities of Pakistan. The Pakistan Army has been deployed to control the situation. PTI has claimed 4 of their dead in Pak Army/police firing.

According to police, over 500 miscreants from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party reached the Model Town Lahore residence of the prime minister in the early hours of Wednesday and set ablaze vehicles parked over there. "They also threw petrol bombs inside the premiere's house," a senior police officer of Punjab police told PTI on Wednesday.

The police official said only the guards were present at the prime minister's house when the miscreants attacked. They also set on fire a police post there. "As a heavy contingent of police reached there, the PTI protesters left," he said. Before reaching the prime minister's residence, the mob attacked the ruling PML-N Secretariat in Model Town, torching the vehicles parked over there. They also put the barriers there on fire. On Tuesday, the protesters had set ablaze the Corps Commander House in Lahore after ransacking it.

Pakistan’s former premier Imran Khan was arrested from the Islamabad high court complex in a dramatic operation involving paramilitary personnel on Tuesday in a haphazard manner. Violent clashes between Imran Khan's supporters and security forces started immediately which have left at least seven people dead and nearly 300 injured across Pakistan as the army was deployed in the country's capital Islamabad, as well as in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces on Wednesday to maintain law and order. The ham-handed arrest of Imran Khan from the premises of the Islamabad High Court Tuesday afternoon may only serve to enhance his status among his followers as a fighter for a democratic Pakistan. That, in turn, means there are no easy exits from this spiralling new crisis for any of the key actors in this saga.

The former Prime Minister’s arrest is seen as an action not by the civilian government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif but of the Pakistan Army. The powerful military, which has ruled Pakistan for half of its history, has grown increasingly wary of Khan’s levelling of allegations against top serving and retired officials as part of his campaign against the PDM government. The people said some within the military perceived Khan’s actions as an attempt to engineer a split within the army, especially in view of the support for the PTI in some quarters.

Pakistan thus is in a serious turmoil. The situation in Lahore and several other cities of Punjab remained tense on Wednesday in the wake of the arrest and 8 days remand of PTI chief and former premier Imran Khan by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in a land transfer corruption case.

Pakistan’s multiple crises are worsening by the day. On the internal security front, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which pulled out of the ceasefire with the government late last year, has escalated attacks on civilians and security forces. The situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces is dire. Meanwhile, relations with the Taliban regime continue to fray; Afghanistan’s new rulers, once proteges of Pakistan’s ISI, are refusing to toe Pakistan’s line and have shown no inclination to rein in the TTP or oust it from its sanctuaries on Afghan soil

Meanwhile, the Pakistani economy is in a state of free fall. Forex reserves are haemorrhaging; they dropped to a meagre $3.68 billion on January 20. Early this week, Pakistani cities reeled under a nationwide power outage, paralysing daily life and and shutting down an already-sick economy. Amid the crises, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed interest in “serious and sincere talks” with India last week. Pounded by pressure on multiple fronts, Sharif is likely seeing the wisdom in making peace with India. However, the statement of Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto at the SCO meeting has further worsened the relations making India to say that a victim cannot sit with the oppressor to have talks at equal terms, hence ruling out any one-to-one talk.

Under the new situation following may happen. 1. Pakistan may declare Marshal Law or Army may take over. 2. The USA and China may intervene to make peace between both parties; getting Imran released and elections to be held. 3. IMF may pressurise under the down gradation threat to Pakistan Government for reconciliation with Imran Khan and to stabilise the situation 4. Pakistan Army may open a war front with India to draw attention from internal pressures.

Declaring Marshal Law appears to have the most probability. The dialogue process between the two parties may not materialise so easily. Army may try to open up a new front along the LoC by blaming Indian forces or other means to relieve the pressure from internal factors. India is watching the situation seriously. Till now, the Pakistani troops had not cut down any numbers from forward locations with India but the situation may get clearer later. While India has been on high vigil to stop Pakistani infiltration already, the situation across the border has become tense over Imran Khan's arrest and fears still exist that Pakistan Army may try something drastic to maintain supremacy in Pakistan.

 

[A_seeker]

Imran Khan is either making history, or becoming history.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

As for Imran he may remain in jail for a long time and disqualified from fighting elections. he claims his life to be in danger and that he may be killed with an injection. There is nothing impossible if the long history of Pakistan is seen.

The National Accountability Bureau issued a warrant on 9 May 2023 for the irregular acquisition of property, which has been deemed to fall under corrupt practices by a holder of public office, under Section 9 (a) of the NAB Ordinance, 1999. Pakistan estate dealer Malik Riaz had sold a property in Britain (ironically, after purchase from Nawaz Sharif's son). The National Crimes Office had frozen these funds. Later, after an out-of-court settlement, 190 million pounds were released for refund to the government of Pakistan. Part of this money was adjusted in the supreme court of Pakistan's account against Malik Riaz's dues. The balance was apparently set off, in violation of money laundering laws, for land grants to Imran's family and friends. These transactions happened in 2019 when Imran was PM. 458 kanals of land in Mouza Bakrala, Tehsil Sohawa, Jhelum district, and 240 kanals in Bani Gala, Islamabad (in the name of absconding business lady associate Farah Gogi) were gifted to Imran, ostensibly for setting up a university in the name of this trust. The properties are registered in the name of the Al Qadir Trust, of which both Imran and his wife, Bushra Bibi are the only trustees.
A small university campus was apparently set up in Sohawa, but very few students have enrolled and the university has not been recognized yet by Pakistan's education authorities.

NAB Deputy Prosecutor General Sardar Muzaffar Abbasi explained the circumstances of the issue of the warrant of arrest. Soon after retired General Nazir Ahmed Butt's appointment as NAB chairman in March 2023, inquiries on this foreign money trail into Pakistan were taken up in earnest. NAB had summoned Imran and Bushra Bibi in this case. After they avoided appearing, a warrant was issued. On appeal, the Islamabad high court ruled the NAB warrant illegal on minor procedural grounds a few days ago. This arrest ensued on a fresh NAB warrant on May 1, for which bail had not been obtained by Imran's legal team. The CJI initially reserved his verdict, but later at night issued a short order holding the arrest legal.
The noose had been slowly, but surely tightening. Imran kept taking advantage of an openly partial and benevolent judiciary, turning a blind eye to his repeated avoidance of indictment proceedings, as also easily getting anticipatory bail in several cases.

IMAGE: Imran Khan's supporters block a highway, during a protest against his arrest, in Karachi, May 9, 2023.
However, Imran seemed to have crossed a red line during his Lahore public meeting a few days ago, accusing the director general, counter intelligence (DG-C) in the Inter Services Intelligence directorate Major General Faisal Naseer of plotting to kill him. This statement elicited an angry response from the DG, Inter Services Public Relations Major General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.

The ISPR press release No. PR-55/2023-ISPR of May 8 accused Imran of leveling 'highly irresponsible and baseless allegations against a serving senior military officer without any evidence.'

It emphasised, 'This has been a consistent pattern (of Imran and other PTI leaders) for last one year wherein military and intelligence agencies officials' were targeted 'for the furtherance of political objectives.'

Imran Khan is likely to be produced on remand before a NAB court in Islamabad on May 10, when indictment in the Toshakhana case is also to be taken up in the additional sessions judge's court, Islamabad.

Even as the protests are tackled by law and order authorities, Imran is likely to face long incarceration. His disqualification to participate in future elections may follow, even as the judiciary gets the message and decides, as in the past, to throw in its cudgels of quasi-independence and conform to the doctrine of necessity. A more serious crackdown on PTI supporters under close martial law conditions cannot be ruled out.

Against this backdrop, though much bravado has been attached to Supreme Court Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial's assertion that his order of elections in Punjab on May 14 still stands, elections to the national or provincial assemblies remain a far cry. If all goes smoothly in law and order terms, they could still be held in October 2023, but the current surcharged atmosphere suggests the contrary.

In Imran's absence, it may be difficult for second-stream PTI leaders to carry forward the populist momentum. Pervez Elahi, appointed President of the party recently, over the heads of other senior leaders like Pervez Khattak, and Shah Mehmood Quereshi, has never been known to confront the military establishment. A battle for succession to Imran's mantle may ensue. Meanwhile, a six-member PTI leadership committee has been formed, under Qureshi, to decide the future course of action. The above scenario could unravel only if dissensions within the army, which have been exaggerated by observers sympathetic to Imran in Pakistan, intensify. The ISPR notification of May 8 constituted a clear warning, backed by the collegiate leadership of senior generals who have rallied behind army chief, General Asim Munir.

Unconfirmed media reports suggest former DG, ISI, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed (retd) is under informal house arrest. Former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been told to cut down on his interactions with the media. Other retired generals like Zahir ul Islam, Shuja Pasha, and Naeem Lodhi, who rallied to Imran's side in the recent past, may be under similar close watch.

History also suggests revolts from within or coup attempts against the army chief have never succeeded in Pakistan. Only time will tell if the promotion of a protégé like Imran will return to bite the omnipotent 'savior' institution this time.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Pakistan's former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a close aide of ousted prime minister Imran Khan, was arrested by police on Thursday, amid worsening political turmoil that has left at least eight people dead and led to the deployment of the army in the country's capital and three provinces.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

According to Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, Guterres has appealed to all parties to respect the right to peaceful assembly and has stressed the need for law enforcers to honour the law while enforcing it against Khan.

'The Secretary-General urges the authorities to respect due process and the rule of law in proceedings brought against former Prime Minister Khan,' the spokesman was quoted as saying by the Geo News.

On Wednesday, Khan was produced in the Anti-Accountability Court No. 1 presided by Judge Muhammad Bashir, the same judge who had convicted former premier Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam in a corruption case of having properties in London.

Sharif addressed the nation hours after the Pakistan Army warned former Khan's supporters of 'severe retaliation' in the wake of attacks on its installations and asserted that it will not allow anyone to take the law into their hands while describing May 9 as a 'black chapter' in the country's history.

'We will not allow anyone to take the law into their hands,' the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Army's media wing said in a terse statement on Wednesday.
Enraged over the arrest of their leader in a corruption case on Tuesday, Khan's supporters on Wednesday stormed the General Headquarters of the Army. They set the residence of the Lahore Corps Commander on fire while attacking military vehicles and installations.
The ISPR said that on the one hand, these miscreants evoke the nation's emotions for achieving their 'limited and selfish objectives' and on the other hand, they deceive people, continuing to highlight the army's importance.

'This is an example of hypocrisy,' it stated.

The military's media wing said that 'this group wearing a political cloak' has done what enemies could not do in 75 years, all 'in the lust for power'.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Relating Shah Niwaz's willingness to have a dialogue with India, Imran's statement that General Bajwa pressurized him not to go against India, and the statement of Pak Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto; the event of Agra Summit between India and Pakistan is cited here:

• On July 16, 2001, night, the then Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf left the plush Amarvilas Hotel for Agra’s Kheria airport in a huff to take a flight to Islamabad as the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee refused to agree to weaken Islamabad’s commitment on cross-border terrorism over the resolution of the Kashmir issue. The entire Agra summit collapsed and those Pakistani journalists who had been waiting from 2 pm for a positive joint statement were left high and dry after the then-Indian Spokesperson Nirupama Rao delivered a one-liner at the Mughal Sheraton hotel at 10 pm. Coined by the then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, Rao, who later served as India’s Foreign Secretary, cryptically said “that a journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step” and left the podium.
• Rao delivered a repartee after the Pakistani dictator had taken off for his country from Agra airport.
• Frustrated by the Indian response and fuelled by the luxury hotel’s hospitality, the Pakistan journalists accosted Rao, slanged her, and virtually roughed her up for India allowing their President to return empty-handed to Pakistan. The expectation bubble that India under Vajpayee would buy the Pakistani line that there all will be hunky dory if the Kashmir issue was resolved in favour of Islamabad had burst.
• Among those present at Mughal Sheraton was one riled-up journalist who has now accused former Pakistan Army Chief Gen Qamar Jawed Bajwa for making a secret deal with India over Kashmir Valley. According to Pakistani newspaper reports on the claims of the journalist, Gen Bajwa met 20-25 journalists at the Army Headquarters in 2021 and told them off-record that the Pak Army was not capable of combat against India in view of the condition of certain weapon systems in its inventory. The claim by the journalist was that Bajwa had kept the political leadership then headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan in the dark and that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was supposed to fly to Pakistan to ink the secret deal engineered by Gen Bajwa and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
• The off-the-record dialogue at Pak Army Headquarters apparently took place around the time when Indian and Pak Army Director Generals of Military Operations agreed to hold fire along the Line of Control (LoC) and all other sectors with effect from midnight February 24-25, 2021.
• While the Pakistan Army issued a statement on Friday stating that media discussion regarding Pakistan Army’s combat worthiness and the former Army Chief’s views to that end were quoted out of context. The Army then added that it was operationally prepared and in state of utmost combat worthiness. The key points in Army’s response were the confirmation of off-the-record dialogue and the contents of the off-the-record meeting, --as quoted by the journalist months after Gen Bajwa demitted office and the ouster of Imran Khan--were largely correct.
• It is obvious from the entire episode that the retired general Bajwa no longer is the flavor of the day in Pakistan and that the real target of this debate is the conduct of the Pakistan Army itself, which is in the crosshairs of politically resurgent PTI chief Imran Khan. Understandably, the Narendra Modi government has not reacted to the secret Kashmir deal media debate with Pakistan itself being at a discount on the Raisina Hill since 2016.
• For someone who ruled Pakistan for six long years behind the scenes, Gen Bajwa was not a fool to realize that there is nothing called off-the-record with 20-25 journalists. He perhaps was giving a clear message to the public through the media that Pakistan should concentrate on its economic revival and give up its obsession over Kashmir valley as it was bleeding the Islamic Republic dry. The current state of a bankrupt Pakistan accompanied by political chaos and terror shows that Gen Bajwa was looking into the future of the Republic and sensitizing the public through responsible media. The real message of Gen Bajwa was the futility of Pakistan's Kashmir dream and not the combat worthiness of the Pak Army.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

With the intervention of Supreme Court of Pakistan, Imran Khan and his party have emerged as the gainers. Shahbaz Sharif wanted Imran Khan to be made illegible to vote and postpone elections. He also wanted to declare all those who came out in streets against Imran's arrest, Shahbaz Sharif and the Army, as terrorists and even set police at Imran Khan's house showing that he is sheltering terrorists. But as the bail was given to Imran both Shahbaz and Army feel belittled. The elections may be on time and Imran will come out unscathed. This way Imran will be the winner and both Shahbaz and Army will be the losers. Shahbaz was eager to Punish SC by reducing the Power of Supreme court by the President being on the side of Imran and the majority being thin it may not be possible.