Pakistan on Fire and Its Effects on India

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Pakistan on Fire and Its Effects on India

Dr Dalvinder Singh Grewal

Prof Emeritus Desh Bhagat University​

After the arrest of Pakistan's previous PM Imran Khan, his party PTI workers torched important buildings in Pakistan. These included the residence of Corpse Commander in Lahore, Army Hqs, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif's Model Town Lahore residence the ruling PML-N Secretariat in Model Town, 14 government installations/buildings including Pakistan Radio building, and 21 police vehicles in Punjab during the last two days. Fires could be seen in other major cities of Pakistan. The Pakistan Army has been deployed to control the situation. PTI has claimed 4 of their dead in Pak Army/police firing.

According to police, over 500 miscreants from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party reached the Model Town Lahore residence of the prime minister in the early hours of Wednesday and set ablaze vehicles parked over there. "They also threw petrol bombs inside the premiere's house," a senior police officer of Punjab police told PTI on Wednesday.

The police official said only the guards were present at the prime minister's house when the miscreants attacked. They also set on fire a police post there. "As a heavy contingent of police reached there, the PTI protesters left," he said. Before reaching the prime minister's residence, the mob attacked the ruling PML-N Secretariat in Model Town, torching the vehicles parked over there. They also put the barriers there on fire. On Tuesday, the protesters had set ablaze the Corps Commander House in Lahore after ransacking it.

Pakistan’s former premier Imran Khan was arrested from the Islamabad high court complex in a dramatic operation involving paramilitary personnel on Tuesday in a haphazard manner. Violent clashes between Imran Khan's supporters and security forces started immediately which have left at least seven people dead and nearly 300 injured across Pakistan as the army was deployed in the country's capital Islamabad, as well as in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces on Wednesday to maintain law and order. The ham-handed arrest of Imran Khan from the premises of the Islamabad High Court Tuesday afternoon may only serve to enhance his status among his followers as a fighter for a democratic Pakistan. That, in turn, means there are no easy exits from this spiralling new crisis for any of the key actors in this saga.

The former Prime Minister’s arrest is seen as an action not by the civilian government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif but of the Pakistan Army. The powerful military, which has ruled Pakistan for half of its history, has grown increasingly wary of Khan’s levelling of allegations against top serving and retired officials as part of his campaign against the PDM government. The people said some within the military perceived Khan’s actions as an attempt to engineer a split within the army, especially in view of the support for the PTI in some quarters.

Pakistan thus is in a serious turmoil. The situation in Lahore and several other cities of Punjab remained tense on Wednesday in the wake of the arrest and 8 days remand of PTI chief and former premier Imran Khan by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in a land transfer corruption case.

Pakistan’s multiple crises are worsening by the day. On the internal security front, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which pulled out of the ceasefire with the government late last year, has escalated attacks on civilians and security forces. The situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces is dire. Meanwhile, relations with the Taliban regime continue to fray; Afghanistan’s new rulers, once proteges of Pakistan’s ISI, are refusing to toe Pakistan’s line and have shown no inclination to rein in the TTP or oust it from its sanctuaries on Afghan soil

Meanwhile, the Pakistani economy is in a state of free fall. Forex reserves are haemorrhaging; they dropped to a meagre $3.68 billion on January 20. Early this week, Pakistani cities reeled under a nationwide power outage, paralysing daily life and and shutting down an already-sick economy. Amid the crises, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed interest in “serious and sincere talks” with India last week. Pounded by pressure on multiple fronts, Sharif is likely seeing the wisdom in making peace with India. However, the statement of Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto at the SCO meeting has further worsened the relations making India to say that a victim cannot sit with the oppressor to have talks at equal terms, hence ruling out any one-to-one talk.

Under the new situation following may happen. 1. Pakistan may declare Marshal Law or Army may take over. 2. The USA and China may intervene to make peace between both parties; getting Imran released and elections to be held. 3. IMF may pressurise under the down gradation threat to Pakistan Government for reconciliation with Imran Khan and to stabilise the situation 4. Pakistan Army may open a war front with India to draw attention from internal pressures.

Declaring Marshal Law appears to have the most probability. The dialogue process between the two parties may not materialise so easily. Army may try to open up a new front along the LoC by blaming Indian forces or other means to relieve the pressure from internal factors. India is watching the situation seriously. Till now, the Pakistani troops had not cut down any numbers from forward locations with India but the situation may get clearer later. While India has been on high vigil to stop Pakistani infiltration already, the situation across the border has become tense over Imran Khan's arrest and fears still exist that Pakistan Army may try something drastic to maintain supremacy in Pakistan.

 

[A_seeker]

Imran Khan is either making history, or becoming history.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

As for Imran he may remain in jail for a long time and disqualified from fighting elections. he claims his life to be in danger and that he may be killed with an injection. There is nothing impossible if the long history of Pakistan is seen.

The National Accountability Bureau issued a warrant on 9 May 2023 for the irregular acquisition of property, which has been deemed to fall under corrupt practices by a holder of public office, under Section 9 (a) of the NAB Ordinance, 1999. Pakistan estate dealer Malik Riaz had sold a property in Britain (ironically, after purchase from Nawaz Sharif's son). The National Crimes Office had frozen these funds. Later, after an out-of-court settlement, 190 million pounds were released for refund to the government of Pakistan. Part of this money was adjusted in the supreme court of Pakistan's account against Malik Riaz's dues. The balance was apparently set off, in violation of money laundering laws, for land grants to Imran's family and friends. These transactions happened in 2019 when Imran was PM. 458 kanals of land in Mouza Bakrala, Tehsil Sohawa, Jhelum district, and 240 kanals in Bani Gala, Islamabad (in the name of absconding business lady associate Farah Gogi) were gifted to Imran, ostensibly for setting up a university in the name of this trust. The properties are registered in the name of the Al Qadir Trust, of which both Imran and his wife, Bushra Bibi are the only trustees.
A small university campus was apparently set up in Sohawa, but very few students have enrolled and the university has not been recognized yet by Pakistan's education authorities.

NAB Deputy Prosecutor General Sardar Muzaffar Abbasi explained the circumstances of the issue of the warrant of arrest. Soon after retired General Nazir Ahmed Butt's appointment as NAB chairman in March 2023, inquiries on this foreign money trail into Pakistan were taken up in earnest. NAB had summoned Imran and Bushra Bibi in this case. After they avoided appearing, a warrant was issued. On appeal, the Islamabad high court ruled the NAB warrant illegal on minor procedural grounds a few days ago. This arrest ensued on a fresh NAB warrant on May 1, for which bail had not been obtained by Imran's legal team. The CJI initially reserved his verdict, but later at night issued a short order holding the arrest legal.
The noose had been slowly, but surely tightening. Imran kept taking advantage of an openly partial and benevolent judiciary, turning a blind eye to his repeated avoidance of indictment proceedings, as also easily getting anticipatory bail in several cases.

IMAGE: Imran Khan's supporters block a highway, during a protest against his arrest, in Karachi, May 9, 2023.
However, Imran seemed to have crossed a red line during his Lahore public meeting a few days ago, accusing the director general, counter intelligence (DG-C) in the Inter Services Intelligence directorate Major General Faisal Naseer of plotting to kill him. This statement elicited an angry response from the DG, Inter Services Public Relations Major General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.

The ISPR press release No. PR-55/2023-ISPR of May 8 accused Imran of leveling 'highly irresponsible and baseless allegations against a serving senior military officer without any evidence.'

It emphasised, 'This has been a consistent pattern (of Imran and other PTI leaders) for last one year wherein military and intelligence agencies officials' were targeted 'for the furtherance of political objectives.'

Imran Khan is likely to be produced on remand before a NAB court in Islamabad on May 10, when indictment in the Toshakhana case is also to be taken up in the additional sessions judge's court, Islamabad.

Even as the protests are tackled by law and order authorities, Imran is likely to face long incarceration. His disqualification to participate in future elections may follow, even as the judiciary gets the message and decides, as in the past, to throw in its cudgels of quasi-independence and conform to the doctrine of necessity. A more serious crackdown on PTI supporters under close martial law conditions cannot be ruled out.

Against this backdrop, though much bravado has been attached to Supreme Court Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial's assertion that his order of elections in Punjab on May 14 still stands, elections to the national or provincial assemblies remain a far cry. If all goes smoothly in law and order terms, they could still be held in October 2023, but the current surcharged atmosphere suggests the contrary.

In Imran's absence, it may be difficult for second-stream PTI leaders to carry forward the populist momentum. Pervez Elahi, appointed President of the party recently, over the heads of other senior leaders like Pervez Khattak, and Shah Mehmood Quereshi, has never been known to confront the military establishment. A battle for succession to Imran's mantle may ensue. Meanwhile, a six-member PTI leadership committee has been formed, under Qureshi, to decide the future course of action. The above scenario could unravel only if dissensions within the army, which have been exaggerated by observers sympathetic to Imran in Pakistan, intensify. The ISPR notification of May 8 constituted a clear warning, backed by the collegiate leadership of senior generals who have rallied behind army chief, General Asim Munir.

Unconfirmed media reports suggest former DG, ISI, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed (retd) is under informal house arrest. Former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been told to cut down on his interactions with the media. Other retired generals like Zahir ul Islam, Shuja Pasha, and Naeem Lodhi, who rallied to Imran's side in the recent past, may be under similar close watch.

History also suggests revolts from within or coup attempts against the army chief have never succeeded in Pakistan. Only time will tell if the promotion of a protégé like Imran will return to bite the omnipotent 'savior' institution this time.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Pakistan's former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a close aide of ousted prime minister Imran Khan, was arrested by police on Thursday, amid worsening political turmoil that has left at least eight people dead and led to the deployment of the army in the country's capital and three provinces.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

According to Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, Guterres has appealed to all parties to respect the right to peaceful assembly and has stressed the need for law enforcers to honour the law while enforcing it against Khan.

'The Secretary-General urges the authorities to respect due process and the rule of law in proceedings brought against former Prime Minister Khan,' the spokesman was quoted as saying by the Geo News.

On Wednesday, Khan was produced in the Anti-Accountability Court No. 1 presided by Judge Muhammad Bashir, the same judge who had convicted former premier Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam in a corruption case of having properties in London.

Sharif addressed the nation hours after the Pakistan Army warned former Khan's supporters of 'severe retaliation' in the wake of attacks on its installations and asserted that it will not allow anyone to take the law into their hands while describing May 9 as a 'black chapter' in the country's history.

'We will not allow anyone to take the law into their hands,' the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Army's media wing said in a terse statement on Wednesday.
Enraged over the arrest of their leader in a corruption case on Tuesday, Khan's supporters on Wednesday stormed the General Headquarters of the Army. They set the residence of the Lahore Corps Commander on fire while attacking military vehicles and installations.
The ISPR said that on the one hand, these miscreants evoke the nation's emotions for achieving their 'limited and selfish objectives' and on the other hand, they deceive people, continuing to highlight the army's importance.

'This is an example of hypocrisy,' it stated.

The military's media wing said that 'this group wearing a political cloak' has done what enemies could not do in 75 years, all 'in the lust for power'.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Relating Shah Niwaz's willingness to have a dialogue with India, Imran's statement that General Bajwa pressurized him not to go against India, and the statement of Pak Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto; the event of Agra Summit between India and Pakistan is cited here:

• On July 16, 2001, night, the then Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf left the plush Amarvilas Hotel for Agra’s Kheria airport in a huff to take a flight to Islamabad as the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee refused to agree to weaken Islamabad’s commitment on cross-border terrorism over the resolution of the Kashmir issue. The entire Agra summit collapsed and those Pakistani journalists who had been waiting from 2 pm for a positive joint statement were left high and dry after the then-Indian Spokesperson Nirupama Rao delivered a one-liner at the Mughal Sheraton hotel at 10 pm. Coined by the then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, Rao, who later served as India’s Foreign Secretary, cryptically said “that a journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step” and left the podium.
• Rao delivered a repartee after the Pakistani dictator had taken off for his country from Agra airport.
• Frustrated by the Indian response and fuelled by the luxury hotel’s hospitality, the Pakistan journalists accosted Rao, slanged her, and virtually roughed her up for India allowing their President to return empty-handed to Pakistan. The expectation bubble that India under Vajpayee would buy the Pakistani line that there all will be hunky dory if the Kashmir issue was resolved in favour of Islamabad had burst.
• Among those present at Mughal Sheraton was one riled-up journalist who has now accused former Pakistan Army Chief Gen Qamar Jawed Bajwa for making a secret deal with India over Kashmir Valley. According to Pakistani newspaper reports on the claims of the journalist, Gen Bajwa met 20-25 journalists at the Army Headquarters in 2021 and told them off-record that the Pak Army was not capable of combat against India in view of the condition of certain weapon systems in its inventory. The claim by the journalist was that Bajwa had kept the political leadership then headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan in the dark and that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was supposed to fly to Pakistan to ink the secret deal engineered by Gen Bajwa and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
• The off-the-record dialogue at Pak Army Headquarters apparently took place around the time when Indian and Pak Army Director Generals of Military Operations agreed to hold fire along the Line of Control (LoC) and all other sectors with effect from midnight February 24-25, 2021.
• While the Pakistan Army issued a statement on Friday stating that media discussion regarding Pakistan Army’s combat worthiness and the former Army Chief’s views to that end were quoted out of context. The Army then added that it was operationally prepared and in state of utmost combat worthiness. The key points in Army’s response were the confirmation of off-the-record dialogue and the contents of the off-the-record meeting, --as quoted by the journalist months after Gen Bajwa demitted office and the ouster of Imran Khan--were largely correct.
• It is obvious from the entire episode that the retired general Bajwa no longer is the flavor of the day in Pakistan and that the real target of this debate is the conduct of the Pakistan Army itself, which is in the crosshairs of politically resurgent PTI chief Imran Khan. Understandably, the Narendra Modi government has not reacted to the secret Kashmir deal media debate with Pakistan itself being at a discount on the Raisina Hill since 2016.
• For someone who ruled Pakistan for six long years behind the scenes, Gen Bajwa was not a fool to realize that there is nothing called off-the-record with 20-25 journalists. He perhaps was giving a clear message to the public through the media that Pakistan should concentrate on its economic revival and give up its obsession over Kashmir valley as it was bleeding the Islamic Republic dry. The current state of a bankrupt Pakistan accompanied by political chaos and terror shows that Gen Bajwa was looking into the future of the Republic and sensitizing the public through responsible media. The real message of Gen Bajwa was the futility of Pakistan's Kashmir dream and not the combat worthiness of the Pak Army.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

With the intervention of Supreme Court of Pakistan, Imran Khan and his party have emerged as the gainers. Shahbaz Sharif wanted Imran Khan to be made illegible to vote and postpone elections. He also wanted to declare all those who came out in streets against Imran's arrest, Shahbaz Sharif and the Army, as terrorists and even set police at Imran Khan's house showing that he is sheltering terrorists. But as the bail was given to Imran both Shahbaz and Army feel belittled. The elections may be on time and Imran will come out unscathed. This way Imran will be the winner and both Shahbaz and Army will be the losers. Shahbaz was eager to Punish SC by reducing the Power of Supreme court by the President being on the side of Imran and the majority being thin it may not be possible.

 

[dalvinder45]

Today on 5 August 2023 Imran Khan has been sentenced to 3 years imprisonment, 1 Lakh fine and 5 years ban from taking part in elections by Islamabad-based sessions court . In case he fails to pay Rs. 1 Lakh he will have to undergo 6 months more imprisonment. The sentence was given in Toshakhana case where he was been sentenced for selling out gifts received by him from foreign visits. As per the complaint against him he was supposed to deposit these gifts in Toshakhana that is state treasury. If he needs these he can buy these after paying for them. These gifts are stated to be a pen, a ring and such like minor items stated to be costing 6,35,000 dollars (140million in Pakistan currency). 70 years' Imran Khan's advocate stated that his witnesses were jailed in various cases pertaining to cases during uprising during Imran Khans's precious arrest and his arty PTI will now appeal in High court against this preplanned unmatched punishment to stop him from fighting elections due in November which Shahbaz Shrief and Pakistan Army first tried to postpone but when SC did not agree and the elections became imminent, Sharief and Army planned to get him barred from fighting elections working on London plan as per Imran Khan's statement. Pakistan has maintained its notoriety for jailing former prime ministers while shying away from taking any action against military dictators who repeatedly violated the Constitution.

When the case hearing was in progress the press and the police had already surrounded his residence in Lahore as if they knew what was to come. Imran Khan, the chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was immediately arrested from his Zaman Park residence in Lahore after the announcement of the punishment in a mechanical manner and was taken to Islamabad.

The Toshakhana is a department under the Cabinet Division that stores gifts given to rulers and government officials by heads of other governments and foreign dignitaries. Khan bought some gifts including a precious watch given to him by the Saudi crown prince and sold the same for profit.Khan could buy the gifts from Toshakhana and also carry out the sale but failed to inform the Election Commission of Pakistan about the money he made for which he was accused of concealment which is a crime under the law.

Earlier, Khan might have escaped with a warning or a fine by the court, but he had already run out of luck when he fell out with the powerful military establishment that led to his ouster from the government in April last year.

Khan is not the first Pakistani premier to end up in jail, the country has numerous examples of the treatment meted out to elected leaders in its sordid history.
The first on the list is Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy, a Bengali politician from then East Pakistan who served as the fifth prime minister. He was arrested in January 1962 and put in jail on bogus charges of “anti-state activities”. His actual crime was his refusal to support military ruler General Ayub Khan.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who served as the ninth prime minister, was arrested on the charges of conspiracy to murder a political opponent in 1974. He was sentenced to death and hanged on April 4, 1979.

Benazir Bhutto served as the premier twice from 1988 to 1990 and again from 1993 to 1996. The country's only woman prime minister was arrested several times -- first in 1985 and put under house arrest for 90 days. In August 1986, she was arrested for denouncing the military dictator Ziaul Haq at a rally in Karachi. In April 1999, she was sentenced to five years imprisonment for corruption and disqualified and fined more than 5 million pounds. She avoided arrest as she was in self-exile.
Nawaz Sharif was arrested in 1999 after General Pervez Musharraf took over and later on exiled for 10 years. In July 2018, he was sentenced to 10 years in jail along with his daughter Maryam Nawaz in a corruption case. In December of the same year, he was handed over seven years in prison in the Al-Azizia Steel Mills corruption case. He went to London for treatment in 2019 and never came back. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was arrested in July 2019 in connection with a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) corruption case but later on, bailed out.

Imran Khan was also arrested on May 9, 2023 in another corruption case but released after a couple of days after the intervention by the Supreme Court. He is now sentenced to three years in jail in the Toshakhana case on August 5, 2023. First Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy, then Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, then Benazir Bhutto, then Nawaz Sharif and now Imran Khan. Prime Ministers and politicians are always punished. Hence he is not the first PM or even last PM to be arrested putting PMs in jail has become traditional in Pakistan. No prime minister in the history of Pakistan has yet served their full five-year term. Most of these arrests have been at the instance of Pak army. None of the four military dictators – Auyb Khan, Yahya Khan, Ziaul Haq and Pervez Musharraf – faced justice for toppling elected governments and subverting the Constitution. Now the powerful Pakistan Army, which has ruled the coup-prone country for more than half of its 75 years of existence, has wielded considerable power in matters of security, foreign policy as well as politics.

Army has now been gunning for Imran after its Army HQs in Rawalpindi and Corps Commander's residence in Lahore were attacked and burnt by agitators agitating against the arrest of Imran Khan. Army has also been feeling let down as its supreme position has been challenged for the first time and is eager to restore the same.

Imran Khan appears to be a challenge both to Army and to Shahbaz Shrief who wants to install his brother Nawaz Sharief in the PM's saddle through next elections. He expects that this punishment will hold Imran Khan from fighting elections and his party will win in the milieu given Nawaz Sharif the chance of next PM.
All these are big stakes. let us see how Imran gets out of this rigmarole and finds him suitable for fighting the forthcoming elections. Other wise there are chances of Pakistan burning again and even it may lead to bifurcation of Pakistan.

 

[dalvinder45]

Imran is now lodged in Attock Jail near Peshawar

 

[A_seeker]

Imran khan arrest is a great setback for India.He single-handeldly succeeded in dismantling the establishment . He was able to mobilize population of Pakistan against the most powerful institution -The Army. This is important because in PAk there are no functional institutions .The Army was one which holded the country together ,that hold was stuck on 9th MAy

Imran Stopped CPEC .
He did best to resettle TTP inside PAksithan .
He did noting when Art370 were being abrogated .
He diplomatically isolated PAkisthan .

 

[dalvinder45]

Imran khan arrest is a great setback for India.He single-handeldly succeeded in dismantling the establishment . He was able to mobilize population of Pakistan against the most powerful institution -The Army. This is important because in PAk there are no functional institutions .The Army was one which holded the country together ,that hold was stuck on 9th MAy

Imran Stopped CPEC .
He did best to resettle TTP inside PAksithan .
He did noting when Art370 were being abrogated .
He diplomatically isolated PAkisthan .

Imran Khan has neither stopped sending terrorists to Kashmir now India bating at international forums. He fought both oppositions created crisis and economic conditions within his country. He remained closed to China and Saudis like others and begged for funds. He did not prefer y have open borders with India for business purposes to ease out the economic conditions in his country. In world forum he ever favored India but spoke against India. He has been as good evil for India as others before him and the new ones expected.
Pakistan's anti India stand does not seem to change with any Pak PM.

 

[dalvinder45]

Pakistan retires, promotes and reshuffles generals in the milieu of Imran episode

After the chaotic events of May 9, 2023 rumours that ISI chief may go but he has been retained even though he was to retire on 13 September 2023. ​

Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum, Director General, Inter Services Intelligence, who was also slated to demit office on September 13, did not retire. His long rumoured extension came out in the open around this time (September 14-16, 2023) though its exact duration still remains vague. While some reports suggest a year, others suspect it may be open ended and of shorter duration.
Only two other ISI chiefs have been given extensions in the past, one, the ubiquitous Lieutenant General Akhtar Abdul Rehman, who held rein for seven long years (1980-1987), almost entirely handling Pakistan's Afghan policy during the Soviet invasion and two, Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, whose extension (2011-2012) under General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani; tenure as army chief created heartburn among peers and caused him to exit in somewhat controversial circumstances.
Lieutenant General Nadeem has apparently been able to win over the army chief's trust to play whatever supportive role is envisaged for him in the army's ensuing political engineering as Pakistan heads to the polls in January, 2024. He is involved also in the efforts being made under the newly set up Special Investment Facilitation Council to bring in army guided economic investments to bail out Pakistan's tottering economy.

Though seven or eight supersessions have taken place, as is usual at this level of the promotion pyramid, major generals from the 82nd Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul Long Course have been promoted.
Major General Amer Ahsan Nawaz, Baloch Regiment, who was serving as Commandant, Command and Staff College, Quetta, becomes the new military secretary, an important assignment coming the way of a comparatively junior general. Holding the CSC, Quetta slot usually marks out a professionally well rated officer on the career high road.
Postings of the other two promoted, Major General Tahir Hameed Shah, Artillery, Director General, Weapons and Equipment at General Headquarters and Major General Sarfraz Ahmed, Air Defence, General Officer Commanding, 8 Div, Sialkot were not immediately announced. The latter has now been designated Inspector General, Arms at GHQ.
Meanwhile, XXX Corps, Gujranwala remains headless for well nigh a fortnight and more, even as officers from the 80th PMA Long course, like Lieutenant General Asim Malik, Adjutant General, Lieutenant General Fayyaz Hussain Shah, IG Traininig and Evaluation, Lieutenant General Nauman Zakaria, DG, National Logistics Cell sweat it out to get Corps commands.
Prominent among those superseded in this round of two-star elevations is Major General Irfan Ahmed Malik, Artillery, who was serving as Commander, Strategic Forces, North, Sargodha. Till recently, he had worked under Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed at the ISI, in the high profile position of DDG, counter-intelligence.
He became controversial as some remarks ascribed to him threatening Maryam Nawaz -- former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's daughter -- went viral. He tried hard to live down this notoriety but failed! He has been appeased with a posting to an otherwise lucrative position, that of Director General, Military Lands and Cantonments.​

Three major generals were promoted in mid September 2023 to fill up vacancies emerging at the much aspired three-star level of lieutenant generals in the Pakistan army. However, contrary to past practice, details of the promotions were kept under wraps by a bridled Pakistani media.
This new approach bears the stamp perhaps of General Asim Munir, who became Pakistan's army chief in the backdrop of considerable controversy deliberately stoked by ousted prime minister Imran Khan. It may indicate also that General Munir could still be struggling to stamp his authority within the institution.
Among those who retired on September 14, 2023 were Lieutenant General Muhd Aamer, Artillery, Corps Commander, XXX Corps, Gujranwala, 76th Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Long Course; Lieutenant General Chiragh Haider, Frontier Force Regiment (FFR), 18th Officers Training School (OTS) course, Director General, Training & Evaluation (DG, IET) at General Headquarters (GHQ); Lieutenant General Khalid Zia, Punjab Regiment, Military Secretary, 77th PMA Long Course.

The new Commandant at CSC, Quetta is Major General Naseem Anwar, Frontier Force Regiment, 87th PMA. He was previously serving as GoC, 15 Div, Sialkot. Two other changes at the major general level bear mention. Division commanders under IV Corps, Lahore have been replaced in the aftermath of perceived 'masterly inaction' of erstwhile incumbents during the disturbances in the Lahore cantonment on May 9.
Muhd Shuja Anwar, Artillery, moves from 21 Div, Pano Aqil as GoC, 11 Division Lahore (replacing Major General Malik Amir Muhd Khan, FFR). Major General Shoaib bin Akram, FFR moves from the post of DG, security and counter terrorism at GHQ as the new GoC,10 Division Lahore (replacing Major General Qaiser Suleiman). Shoaib is from the same unit as the army chief, 23 FFR, and is placed now as a trusted junior in a key slot.
With these promotions, 25 three-star generals are now in place, 6 from the Artillery, 3 from the Armoured Corps, 2 each from Engineers and Air Defence, 12 from Infantry (FFR- 5, Baloch-2, Sindh-2, Punjab-2, AJK Regt-1).
Two or three vacancies remain to be filled. Munir may be waiting for two more slots to emerge, after the retirements due in November, when his trusted aide, Lieutenant General Muhd Saeed, Sindh Regiment (19th OTS), Chief of General Staff and Lieutenant General Ali Amir Awan, Artillery, Chairman, Pakistan Ordinance Factory are slated to bid adieu. Rumours persist, that Saeed may also get an extension, like Nadeem.
Significantly, a serving 3 star General, Lieutenant General Munir Afsar, Punjab, IG Communications and IT, is being posted to head the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), an independent and autonomous agency which works under the interior ministry, to regulate government databases and statistically manage the sensitive registration database of all Pakistani citizens.
On the political front, Imran Khan's popularity has not abated. The Cipher leaks case is being seriously pursued to keep him in long incarceration, though he is now shifted to Adiala jail, Rawalpindi, from Attock pursuant to an Islamabad high court order.
The Election Commission of Pakistan is still prevaricating on whether Imran's party, the Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf will be banned from the next elections or not.
New problems of carrying out accountability within the army may confront an insecure Asim Munir if Chief Justice Qazi Faiz Isa takes to logical conclusion the hearing of review petitions in his 2019 Faizabad Mor judgment, slated to resume early next month.

 

[dalvinder45]

As Nawaz Sharif lands into Pakistan having a grand reception by about 10 lakhs after return from 4 year self exile and opposition blaming of use of Govt fund for organizing his reception and Imran being held guilty for lost classified documents, Pakistan's situation is getting further deteriorated. Nawaz Sharif has given a call for good relations with neighbors especially India as being taken as good gesture.

 

[dalvinder45]

Rs 4.1m recovered from Parvez Elahi’s residence during search, ACE tells Lahore court. The Punjab Anti-Corruption Establishment (ACE) on Saturday informed a Lahore district and sessions court that it had allegedly recovered Rs4.1 million from the house of PTI President Parvez Elahi in a case pertaining to illegal appointments in the Punjab Assembly. Last month, the Punjab Anti-Corruption Establishment (ACE) arrested Elahi on charges of appointing Muhammad Khan Bhatti as his principal secretary during his tenure as the chief minister. It alleged that Bhatti’s appointment was not in accordance with the law. The PTI president has been arrested more than a dozen times in various cases since the start of June and after a statewide crackdown was launched against the party in the aftermath of the May 9 violence.
Pakistan indicts former PM Imran Khan for leaking state secrets. The former leader, removed in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, faces a potential jail sentence of 14 years. A Pakistani court has indicted Imran Khan for leaking state secrets, according to reports. The charge adds to the huge volume of legal turmoil that the former prime minister has met since his removal in April 2022. “He has been indicted today and the charge was openly read out,” said Shah Khawar of the Federal Investigation Agency outside Adiala Jail in Islamabad, where Khan is imprisoned, Pakistani broadcaster Geo TV reported on Monday.

 

[dalvinder45]

Pakistan remains in continuous news. Earlier Nawaz Sharief's reception was in the news ; then Imran Khan's involvement in security breach case, then declaration of elections in February in Pakistan and order for all Afghani refugees in Pakistan to leave Pakistan and the latest being the Mianwali Airport attack by 9 TTP terrorists attack damaging 3 aircrafts one helicopter, killing two pilots and lot of collateral damage as the firing in the airport could be seen miles away. All the 9 terrorists are stated to be eliminated. Some fingers' are being raised in Taliban as well for their complicity. Pakistan appears to be in serious turmoil and forthcoming elections may not be an easy go.

 

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Recent disclosures allege large scale corruption, nepotism and kickbacks by Pakistan air chief Air Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhuin housing land deals in Islamabad and in buying of new aircraft, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W.Sensational disclosures related to the Pakistan Air Force have surfaced on New York-based Pakistani journalist Wajahat Saeed Khan's video blog site, which may pose fresh embarrassment for army chief General Asim Munir even as he prepares to deal with an important reshuffle of three star lieutenant generals at the month end.
One of his most trusted aides, Lieutenant General Mohd Saeed, chief of general staff, has reportedly turned down an offer to continue on a temporary, open-ended extension on his post, like Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed Anjum at the Inter Services Intelligence directorate.
The disclosures come in a detailed 'white paper', claimed to have been written by an air force insider after the recent terrorist attack at Mianwali.
As would be known, the Pakistan defence establishment tried to underplay the damage suffered in the Mianwali incident, claiming only three old 'Mushak' or K-8 aircraft were destroyed, whereas other credible reports have assessed the number at 14.
The disclosures allege large scale corruption, nepotism and kickbacks by current air chief Air Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu in housing land deals in Islamabad, in buying of new aircraft, in allowing a deliberate go-slow in refurbishment of the Falcon F-16 program and attempts to amalgamate the JF-17 production unit at the Kamra air base into a new 'Technology Park', proposed to be set up at Kharian.

Air Marshal Babar Sidhu was appointed air chief in March 2021. He had not flown F-16s but only Mirage III and V aircraft. He was not the senior most in his batch. Wajahat Khan's report alleges he was helped to ascend to the top post in the air force by then DG Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed and then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, as he hailed from Chakwal and was a 'Jutt' (Jat), the same biradari (clan) as General Bajwa. His retirement looms in March 2024 and he is lobbying for an extension.

In an interview given to the Pakistan Observer last week, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar Kakar acknowledged that an extension had been given to DG, ISI, Lieutenant General Anjum but he added it would come into effect only from the end of November 2023.

This has led to speculation that General Munir has sold a proposition to some disgruntled lieutenant generals to continue in the three star rank for the sanctioned time of four years, from the actual date of taking charge, a procedure which benefitted General Munir himself, when he became army chief last year.

Lieutenant General Aamer, GoC, XXX Corps, Gujranwala, was apparently persuaded to continue at his post in this manner. Now reports have surfaced, suggesting that Lieutenant General Mohd Saeed, chief of general staff, has not agreed and opted to retire this month end.

Lieutenant General Saeed belonged to the 19th Officers Training Scheme stream. His was the first appointment made by General Munir after he became army chief. He was serving as corps commander, V Corps, Karachi then. Earlier, he had served as deputy director general, Analysis at the ISI, when General Munir himself was director general, Military Intelligence.
If Lieutenant General Saeed is allowed to fade into honourable retirement, General Munir may choose to bring in his next most trusted aide, Lieutenant General Shahid Imtiaz, 22nd OTS, currently X Corps commander, Rawalpindi, as CGS.

It is being rumoured that Lieutenant General Muhd Asim Malik, adjutant general at GHQ, may be sent as the new corps commander to Rawalpindi. A sword of honour from the 80th Pakistan Military Academy Long Course, Lieutenant General Malik belongs to the Baloch Regiment. He is the son of retired Lieutenant General Ghulam Muhd Malik, who was military secretary under the late military dictator General Zia-ul Haq.

Ironically, an apocryphal story suggests Lieutenant General Ghulam Muhd Malik may have had a role in denying promotion to Major General Ijaz Amjad, General Qamar Javed Bajwa's father-in- law, as the allegation of his being of the Ahmediya faith had surfaced then. Major General Amjad reportedly tried to reassure the army top brass then that he was prepared to relinquish his Ahmediya link and be treated as a loyal Sunni, but this fickleness went against him.

If Lieutenant General Asim Malik is able to hold the important Rawalpindi Corps command, or any other, for the mandatory one year period, he would stand well placed to be one of the top contenders for army chief if General Munir retires on time, in November, 2025.

These shenanigans within the Pakistani army occur when there is persisting unpopularity over the army leadership's determined persecution of imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf politicians in the build up to the February 2024 general elections.

There is prevarication on whether the election commission will impose a blanket ban on the PTI. Caretaker PM Kakar has denied this possibility. but the last word may not have been said.

Meanwhile, Chief Justice Qazi Faiz Isa seems determined to hold retired Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed accountable, and by implication, General Bajwa as well, for dabbling beyond authorized rules in organising the Faizabad Mor (crossing) dharna of the Tehrik e Labbaik, Pakistan in 2017, which set the ball rolling for ouster of the Nawaz Sharif government.

 

[dalvinder45]

With two due retirements, of Lieutenant Generals Muhd Saeed, CGS, and Ali Amir Awan, Pakistan Ordinance Factories, Wah taking place. Four more promotions were made public on November 23, 2023, to complete filling up of the sanctioned 28 three star vacancies.
Lieutenant General Asif Ghafoor, Artillery, 78th Pakistan Military Academy Long Course (PMA-LC), has been moved out from XII Corps, Quetta, and posted as Chairman, National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad. Lieutenant General Rahat Naseem Ahmed Khan, Frontier Force Regiment (FFR), 82nd PMA-LC, goes from the NDU as the new corps commander, XII Corps, Quetta. Lieutenant General Tahir Hameed Shah, Artillery, 82 PMA, goes as Chairman, Pakistan Ordinance Factories, Wah. Lieutenant General Avais Dastagir, Armoured Corps (19 Lancers), 83rd PMA, who served earlier as director general, military operations (DGMO), picks up three star rank and is posted as chief of general staff.
Major General Kashif Abdullah, 89th PMA, is the new DGMO. Lieutenant General Shakirullah Khattak, Armoured Corps, is also promoted. He continues in his post as chairman, Heavy Industries, Taxila.

IMAGE: General Syed Asim Munir, left, during his visit to Turkiye. Photograph: ispr.gov.pk
Others promoted from the 83rd PMA Long Course include Lieutenant General Muhd Aqeel, FFR, who was director general, weapons development at joint staff headquarters. He goes as inspector general, communications and information technology at general headquarters. The last incumbent there, Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik has moved to the National Data Base Regulatory Authority (NADRA) recently. Also on promotion, Lieutenant General Syed Imdad Hussan Shah, Azad Kashmir Regiment, previously DG(H) at Inter Services Intelligence becomes the new corps commander, XXX Corps, Gujranwala. Though officers from the 80th PMA still cool their heels in staff assignments at GHQ, with this set of promotions and reshuffle, General Asim Munir can be regarded to have finally settled in and is firmly ensconced as army chief after the May 9, 2023 upheavals which were planned by supporters of now incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan to destabilize him.

 

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23 soldiers killed in suicide attack at Pak army post​

Source: PTI December 12, 2023 16:16 IST
At least 23 soldiers were killed on Tuesday when militants linked to a Pakistani Taliban affiliate rammed an explosive-laden truck into a security forces' post in restive Khyber-Paktunkhwa's Dera Ismail Khan district, the army said.

The Inter-Services Public Relations -- the media wing of the army -- said that the terrorists rammed the explosive-laden vehicle after their attempts to gain entry were 'effectively thwarted' in the unruly Dera Ismail Khan district bordering the South Waziristan tribal district. All the attackers were killed by the security forces while fresh contingents of police were rushed to the site, and a subsequent search operation was launched, officials said. The Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a newly formed militant group that is an affiliate of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack.
TJP spokesperson Mullah Qasim termed the attack a "suicide mission" (Fidayein).
The toll is expected to rise as several injured are critical, police said.
An emergency was declared in district hospitals while all schools and colleges were closed due to the attack. The terror organisation has been behind some major attacks in Pakistan.
On November 4, the TJP militants attacked the Pakistan Air Force's Mianwali Training Air Base, some 300 km from Lahore, damaging three grounded aircraft. All the attackers were killed in the army operation, which came a day after 17 soldiers were killed in three separate terror strikes in the country.
In July this year, the TJP militants attacked Zhob Garrison in the restive Balochistan province, killing four soldiers and wounding five others.
Pakistan has been facing a rise in violence in the wake of the Taliban seizing power in Afghanistan in August 2021. Throughout this year, terrorists and separatists have been targeting security forces in Pakistan. The terrorists have repeatedly attacked the security and military installations in Pakistan.

Pakistan created terror outfits, now 'monster' devouring it: India​

 

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Pakistan’s two border provinces have seen 93 percent rise in attacks since the TTP ended ceasefire last year.
A powerful bomb exploded at a rally celebrating the birth anniversary of Prophet Muhammad in southwest Pakistan in late September, killing many people and wounding dozens of others [File: Arshad
A recent deadly suicide attack on a military post in northwest Pakistan has raised fears of the return of armed rebellion in the country’s tribal regions that have seen a dramatic rise in armed attacks this year.
A little-known group, Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), claimed the December 12 Bombing in Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan. At least 23 soldiers were killed and another 34 injured in the car bomb attack. Imran Khan to fight elections from Jail from three places.

 

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Pakistani Terrorists who are active in Poonch and Rajouri are not relying on random locals for logistics, guidance etc.' 'They are being supported by a selected few who are being vetted, cleared and directed from across the LoC.'

IMAGE: The Indian Army's Romeo Force and Poonch police personnel keep vigil at the LKG forest in Poonch, January 14, 2024, during a search operation. Photograph: ANI Photo

The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir has been dynamic. In my opinion, newer hot spots could emerge wherever 'operational space' is available to the terrorists to gravitate. However, in this changing security situation, two factors have remained constant.

a. Pakistan continues to pursue sponsoring terrorism through her proxies as a State policy.
b. Security forces in Jammu & Kashmir, specially the Indian Army, have continued to function with utmost dedication and zeal and made repeated sacrifices to bring stability and calm to the region.

In a situation of temporary setbacks, the security forces have shown resolve to bounce back and get on top of the situation.

IMAGE: Security forces conduct a search operation in the forest area of Dera ki Gali. Photograph: ANI Photo

The region has witnessed a cycle of violence in the past, both in the depth areas and along the Line of Control. As recently as early 2020, the LoC was active. High intensity ceasefire violations, raids on posts, ambushes, mutilation of bodies was happening. Whereas, the depth areas were calm and incident free for a long time. The Poonch and Rajouri areas have been activated by design. Probably the number of terrorists is not large, but they have fool-proof communication with handlers across the LoC who coordinate their logistics and provide operational directions. Terrorists in Poonch and Rajouri are not dependent on locals, therefore HUMINT [human intelligence] is void.
Why has this area been re-activated:
a. The counter terrorism grid is not as thick in Kashmir after troops were relocated to the Line of Actual Control.
b. The terrorists who were existing and lying dormant, know the area. The terrain favours them and Pakistan wants to keep the pot boiling, probably below our threshold level.
The jungles pose additional challenges for the conduct of operations. Mountains with jungles further compound the problems. Visibility is restricted, so is the field of fire and engagement ranges. Area weapons like mortars and rocket launchers, MMGs [Medium Machine Guns] etc are less effective. The logistics, casualty evacuation, movement of reserves is time consuming. The range of communication sets reduce and helicopters/drone support is difficult. The jungle terrain is favourable for small team ops and the one who knows the jungle can use it to his advantage.

Trrorists in Poonch and Rajouri are operating from hideouts within the jungle. Their presence and movements are concealed; they carry out an incident and melt back. They periodically change hideouts and leave no tell-tale signs. Operations involving large body of troops is prone to detection, ambushes, IED etc. Cordon and search or seek and destroy operations can result in casualties and fatigue to troops.
Troops trained to operate in small teams, self-contained for a protracted period, and who are able to conceal their presence are more effective in the jungles.
They can be in the jungle, watch activity, choose the time and place and strike. Ops like ambushes and raids are more successful in jungles.
Although basic training to soldiers includes some aspects of operations in jungles and the same is further refreshed during pre-induction training -- however, limited training only serves limited purpose. It meets the requirement of clearing small patches during ops with fire support to avoid casualties.

IMAGE: Security personnel keep vigil in the Poonch sector. Photograph: ANI Photo

While the troop deployment along the LoC is to maintain the sanctity of the LoC, a strong anti-infiltration obstacle is in place to deny infiltration. Deployment on the LoC includes obstacles in the form of a formidable fence with a surveillance system, various kinds of sensors, cameras (day and night) and the LoC is manned by troops with weapons with day/night visions.
All aspects are important. While technology is an enabler to improve efficiency and operational effectiveness of soldiers, training and proficiency of soldiers to use the ground to their advantage is equally important. However, overreliance on technology and ignoring human aspects is fraught with dangers.
The Bakharwals and Gujjars of the Poonch and Rajouri area played a key role in improving the security situation. They stood up against the terrorists, assisted the Indian Army in clearance of Hill Kaka the so-called 'liberated area'. They have supported the Indian Army in the past; they do it now, and in my opinion, will continue to do so.
The increase in terrorist incidents is not because the Bakharwals and Gujjars are not providing information. These terrorists who are active in Poonch and Rajouri are not relying on random locals for logistics, guidance etc. They are being supported by a selected few who are being vetted, cleared and directed from across the LoC.

IMAGE: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh meets with locals and officials in Rajouri.
Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, COAS General Manoj C Pande and Northern Army Commander Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi are also seen. Photograph: ANI Photo
In the December 21 ambush, terrorists had positioned themselves on hill tops and chose a blind curve on the road to target army vehicles. This shows how well-informed they were about the terrain.
Could you throw some light on the ecosystem that exists between terrorists, smugglers and local informants that enables such attacks? It's true that the terrorists selected an ambush site from where they could cause maximum damage and make a quick getaway. This indicates that they have received training from the Pakistan army. Also without guidance as recce, a copy book style action is difficult to execute.
They surely would have received support and information from some over-the-ground workers who could freely move around and inform them of troop movement, numbers, timings, etc.It is the narco-smuggler nexus that is providing support.

It is surely by design and directions from across the LoC. Probably to keep the pot boiling, they have chosen a favourable area. In Srinagar, as compared to Poonch and Rajouri, operations can be launched in a faster time-frame due to the terrain and thick counter-terrorism deployment. The flow of information to local police and Indian Army is more due to the density of population. The narco-smuggler nexus, supported through tactical drones, is strong in the Poonch and Rajouri region.
Also, handlers are able to directly communicate with terrorists and selected over-the-ground workers without use of communication systems that can be intercepted and monitored.Also, due to relocation of forces to the Line of Actual Control, the already thin deployment has further depleted.

Repeated incidents in Poonch and Rajouri is a matter of concern. Sacrifices made to bring peace to this area cannot be allowed to go in vain.
While local formations will honestly draw lessons, make required corrections in operational techniques, battle procedures and drills, they will also deploy additional resources under their command and revisit training curriculum focussing on intelligence aspects.
Some other measures that need to be considered are:
a. Deny operational space to the terrorists by deploying additional troops from outside the command theatre.
b. Counter infiltration grid in this area is strong, however an audit to identify weak spots and plug them is required.
c. Infusion of hi-tech equipment to improve operational effectiveness of the troops is urgently required. These include anti-drone systems, foliage penetration radars, precision strike tactical drones, communication interception equipment etc.
d. Securing of lines of communication by forces other than the Indian Army needs to be considered.
This will deny terrorists freedom of movement in vehicles from across the Poonch and Rajouri and from the International Border sector side.
e. The nexus between narco/smugglers and terrorists needs to be neutralised on priority. There is a requirement to go after the big players in the business rather than small time drug peddlers. This task cannot be left to local security forces/agencies, but a multi-agency effort at a higher level would yield results.
f. Right sizing of forces/drawing down of the Rashtriya Rifles needs to be reconsidered, especially in the light of commitment on the LAC and requirement of more boots on the ground in counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism.
g. Lastly, handlers across the LoC should also feel the heat. They cannot sit in safe sanctuaries and perpetuate violence.

A strong message to Pakistan that there cannot be business as usual on the LoC when depth areas are being targeted.
Based an interview by Lieutenant General Paramjit Singh Sangha, former deputy chief of the army staff (strategy) by Rediff