The effects of 1973 Yom Kippur war and Hamas-Israel war-2003 on Asia
Israel portrayed itself as aggrieved by the attack and the West specially USA not only stood by it but has put military barriers around it to save it from other Muslim nations. The missiles from Yemen have been effectively interpreted and destroyed by US war ships. Missile and rockets from Syria, Lebanon or west bank have not shown much impact. Syria airports have been bombed and made ineffective to affect he war. The Lebanon and West bank too have been bombed to stop interference. 1 Lakh strong Hezbollah fighter have been lying dogo an have no come out openly as they did in earlier war with Israel. Saudi Arabia was conspicuous with its silence even after Chinese's bidding. Iran has been giving threats but has done no physical damage so far. Demonstrations in West bank, Lebanon, Qatar, Yamen, Pakistan, Indonesia and even in the USA did not leave any impact. Vetoing of resolution for humanitarian aid in UN was vetoed by the US even those all other present nations' representatives favored the resolution. Facing global criticism over humanitarian aid, Biden asked Netanyahu to allow 20 trucks of humanitarian aid. Bombing of a hospital and now a Church in Gaza will have catastrophic effect on Israel's was effort to annihilator Hamas. They keep on waiting on the borders but throwing thousand of Bombs including Chemicals (Phosphorus) against all UN norms and treaties.
With such situation, Saudi Arabia now have to rethink of its normalizing with Israel. Things are obviously different from 1973, with West Asians (especially Saudi Arabia) much more self-confident, immensely richer, and also cognizant of the fact that their oil/gas bonanzas will run out sooner or later. They need to diversify their economies, and possibly make some new friends, other than those who are dazzled by their patrol-dollars. It is this realization that led to the landmark Abraham Accords, whereby several Arab nations normalized their relations with Israel. The general expectation has been that Saudi Arabia would follow suit, and Mohammed bin Salman has been signaling that he is willing to do this (but also, in his own national interest willing to embrace China and the proposed BRICS+ currency, both of which would be setbacks for the US and the collective West). The biggest geopolitical casualty of the Hamas war is that this normalization will be put on hold.
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IMAGE: Palestinians walk amid the destruction at Gaza's Jabalia refugee camp, following Israeli strikes on the enclave, October 14, 2023. Photograph: Reuters
Poor Palestinians are too tired to fight.
It can be argued on several grounds that the 2023 Israel-Hamas war is a point of inflection indicating the general eclipse of the West. There is the obvious concern that the Israel-Hamas war could set off World War III, especially given that there are many nuclear weapons in the possession of the belligerents and their friends. Iran has recovered from the debacle of the Stuxnet computer worm that caused their uranium-enrichment centrifuges to blow up. Then there is Pakistan and its rapidly growing {censored}nal, no doubt helped along by screwdriver assembly of Chinese components, and perhaps knocked-down kits.
Pakistan is one of the most vocal supporters of Palestine as an Ummah cause, which is ironic considering that Pakistani soldiers seconded to Jordan in 1970 during the Black September uprising may have been responsible for the deaths of thousands of Palestinians. The specter of an encompassing World War III is sobering, and just as the crumbling League of Nations was unable to fend off earlier editions of world wars, the toothless United Nations is now unlikely to be able to prevent a new one. It hasn't been able to prevent all the smaller conflicts, such as the Ukraine war, and it is obvious that major powers simply don't care about the UN's exertions and bloviations. Therefore, one of the biggest fears is that the Hamas attack might seed a larger conflagration.
IMAGE: Palestinians search for casualties under the rubble of a house destroyed in Israeli strikes in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, October 16, 2023. . Photograph: Ibrahim Abu Mustafa/Reuters
Of immediate concern, though, is that a nascent process of normalization in West Asia may now grind to a halt. This can have global consequences. It is likely that the earlier edition of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Yom Kippur War of 1973, led directly to the Arab oil embargo followed by the shock of their quadruplication of oil prices.
This caused inflation in the US, but more seriously, it precipitated a massive transfer of wealth from developing countries, which set them back by decades, compounding human misery.
There are thus unforeseen consequences to what happens in West Asia, which, barring some miracle, will continue to dominate energy supplies for the next couple of decades, even if the most optimistic Green initiatives come to fruition. Saudi Arabia simply cannot appear to be mindless of the plight of the largely Muslim Palestinians, even if they are nervous about the decidedly fundamentalist Hamas, who, in an interesting twist, may well be aligning themselves with Shia Iran, the principal regional foe of the Sunni Saudis.
However, what is also worth noting is that the Saudis, as well as Egyptians and other Arabs, are all reluctant to resettle Palestinians in their largely empty, and rich, countries. There might be two reasons for this: One, perhaps it is still the ambition of the Arab States to eliminate Israel and wipe it off the map altogether. If so, maintaining Palestinians as an aggrieved quasi-nation, which would supply an endless stream of militants to the Hamases and Hezbollahs of the region, is a viable, if brutal, strategy.
Two, Arab States may not actually want Palestinians as refugees because they might cause all sorts of domestic problems. On an average the Palestinians of 1948 were much better educated than most other Arabs, and could have contributed to other Arab nations. Given the examples of Pakistani migrants in Britain, and more recent Syrian etc., refugees in Europe -- easily radicalized and prone to blood-curdling rhetoric and possibly action against their host nations -- Arab States want to keep them out. This could be the real reason Egypt refuses to open the border for the fleeing residents of Gaza. It is a bit like the Rohingya of Myanmar. They have a reputation for being troublesome radical Islamists, and so nobody wants to take them in: Not Bangladesh where they originally hail from, not any Arab States, not Pakistan
IMAGE: Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Prime Minister Narendra D Modi and US President Joe Biden at the launch of the India Middle East Europe Corridor in New Delhi, September 9, 2023. Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool/Reuters
Given all this, and the growing clout of Israel under the American security umbrella, chances are that the Palestinian cause would have become increasingly less relevant to Saudis and other Arabs. And that is precisely what might have motivated Hamas and friends: With the emergent normalization of ties with Israel in the region, and initiatives like Israel, India, US, UAE and IMEC (India Middle East Europe Corridor), there would be commercial and trade ties that would bind.
After all, a major part of these trade corridors would be the infrastructure links (railway lines through Saudi Arabia, the Israeli port of Haifa) that would offer alternative trade routes to Europe from India and Southeast Asia. This would offend China too, because its grand Belt and Road Initiative and trans-European railway links would see less business. Thus, in passing, China also is a winner in this Great Game as West Asia goes on the boil, along with usual suspects Iran, Qatar and Turkey.
Thus, from several points of view, this Hamas war is an immediate setback to India: It is one of the few countries in the region that enjoys good relations with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and IMEC would allow it to recreate the old Spice Route to Europe, which was highly lucrative over millennia.
India is one of the few countries in the region that enjoys good relations with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and IMEC would allow it to recreate the old Spice Route to Europe. All this is in jeopardy now, notes Rajeev Srinivasan.
All this is in jeopardy now. The strategic and under construction Vizhinjam container transshipment port in Thiruvananthapuram is a key part of this ambitious trade route. India also has interests in Iran: The Chabahar port could enable India to create an alternative route to Central Asia and Russia called the INSTC bypassing trouble-prone Pakistan and Afghanistan (International North South Transport Corridor (although that long-pending logistics link is years behind schedule). India cannot allow its relations with Iran to be affected by the war in Gaza.
More broadly, if world trade collapses and/or a war begins now it would be unfortunate timing for India. This is the very moment India is ready to finally leave behind the bitter legacy of colonialism, which loote enormous wealth ($10 trillion to $45 trillion according to different estimates from India. A collapse in the procedures of the 'liberal, rules-based international order', however biased it is in favor of the West, is unfortunate for India in the medium term, although it would probably be fine in the longer term.
There are two other aspects of the response to Gaza that are notable. The first is the rise of ugly anti-Jewish sentiments in many parts of the West. On the other hand, the Left was startled by the swift reaction from American Jews to standard Left positioning of moral equivalence between Hamas and the Israeli Defense Forces. Retribution was swift: Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, in effect asked fellow CEOs to blacklist these Pakistan students who rose for Hamas. There was swift backpedaling as many students worried about their job prospects, protested that the statements were made without consulting them. This is positive. The Woke Left in the US is splintering. That may mean the Democratic party tactic of
uber-wokeism may now backfire on them, especially notable as elections are looming in the US. The less the wokeism around, the better for India. The weakening of Western power and resolve vis a vis China is another problem for India. The West simply cannot supply munitions for multiple wars (Ukraine, Gaza, and possibly Taiwan), partly because the US has been deindustrialized.
What we might see in the medium term is the deprecation of US power in the Indo-Pacific, and indeed a fallback to isolationism and Fortress America. This would encourage China that is just waiting to rampage. The current Israel-Hamas war is a net negative for India.
