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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Dalvinder Singh Grewal" data-source="post: 226819" data-attributes="member: 22683">PM on Kargil WarIn his speech on May 22, 2002 at Kupwara, Kashmir, the Prime Minister of India said, "It (Pakistan) has now evolved a new strategy of proxy war by making use of mercenaries and selling the dreams of heavenly rewards to the so-called jihad's." He also said, "India is forced to fight a war thrust on it and we will emerge victorious." The Hon'able Prime Minister has made out two key points in his speech; point one: proxy war as a new strategy and point two: a decisive full fledged war required against this proxy war. These points are discussed here in some detail. Proxy war is taken to mean, 'a war through other agency'. The strategic characteristics are ' the involvement of three agencies; the Engaging Agency on whose behalf the battle is fought; the Engaged Agency that fights on behalf of the engaging agency and the Affected Agency against whom the proxy war is fought. The real interest for the fight is of the engaging agency while the Engaged Agency may get some pecuniary benefits. The aims and objectives of the Engaged Agency are meant to achieve the aims and objectives of the Engaging Agency. The planning, organising, directing and controlling may lie invisibly at the hands of the Engaging Agency but visibly these are in the hands of the Engaged Agency. The major benefits of the proxy war to the Engaged Agency are achievement of its objectives by getting physically or directly involved. It helps in maintaining secrecy about real intentions and type of operations and creates real confusion in affected agency for quite long time. It helps in preserving own resources including soldiers, weapons and finances. It makes Engaging Agency to carry out a propaganda and misinformation compaign more effectively and more openly. Above all it is a low cost operation and is generally lodged by a week nation against a strong nation where fighting a direct war is not possible. Pakistan's proxy war against India is not a new strategy. Pakistan adopted this strategy from the day of its inception. In 1947 it waged proxy war in Kashmir through Qabailies that succeeded in retaining portion of J & K now known as Azad Kashmir. In 1965, it conducted 'Op Gibraltar' in 1965, which miserably failed. It used Punjab from 1982 to1992 as a ground for proxy war, which caused serious fissures among Hindus and Sikhs and destroyed Punjab's peace and economy very badly. Later it shifted its emphasis to other parts of India keeping Kashmir as centre point. ISI wing of the military was made responsible for the planning, funding and conduct of the proxy war. Funding was done through slush money earned through drugs and fake Indian currency. This proxy war has kept India in confusion for over 20 years now. India now recognises that it is Pakistan that is waging a proxy war but has not been even naming it. India's reactions to proxy war are really pathetic. This is because it has neither understood the theory of Proxy War nor it has lodged effective measures to counter it. No detailed study has ever been conducted on proxy war even though now we are in it for over 20 years regularly. The latest Low-cost Proxy War against has carried on unabated with the planning of 'OP TOPAC" by Gen. Zia-ul-Haque. As per Indian Defence Review April-June 1999, Gen. The aim in En Zia's word was 'liberation of Kashmir Valley'. To achieve this aim Gen. Zia listed three phases of OP TOPAC before his top Generals to be carried out in 20 years. Phase 1: In the first phase the objective was 'getting hold of power apparatus of the State by political subversion and intrigue with the help of India's favoured politicians.' A low insurgency against the regime so that it is under siege, but does not collapse, as we would not yet want central rule imposed by Delhi. We plant our chosen men in all key positions; they will subvert the police forces, financial institutions, the communication network and other important organisations. We whip up anti-Indian feelings amongst the students and peasants, preferably on some religious issue, so that we can enlist their active support for rioting and anti-government demonstrations. Organise and train subversive elements and armed groups with capabilities, initially to deal with para-military forces located in the valley. Adopt and develop means to cut off lines of communications between Jammu and Kashmir and within Kashmir and Ladakh by stealth, without recourse to force. The road over Khardungla should receive our special attention. In collaboration with Sikh extremists, create chaos and terror in Jammu to deliver attention from the valley at a critical juncture and discredit the regime even in Hindu mind. Establish virtual control over those parts of the Kashmir valley where the India Army is not located or deployed. The southern Kashmir Valley may be one such region. Phase 2: Exert maximum pressure on the Siachen, Kargil and Rajauri-Punchh sectors to force the Indian Army to deploy reserve formations outside the main Kashmir Valley. Attack and destroy base depots and HQs located at Srinagar, Pattan, Kupwara, Baramulla, Bandipur and Chowkiwala by covert action at a given time. Some of Afghan Mujahideen by then settled in Azad Kashmir, will then infiltrate in selected pockets with a view to extending areas of our influence. This aspect will require detailed and ingenious planning. The fiasco of Op Gibraltar (1965) holds many lessons for us. At a certain stage of the operations, Punjab and adjacent areas of Kashmir Valley will be put under maximum pressure internally by our offensive posture. Phase 3: Detailed planning for the liberation of Kashmir Valley and establishment of independent Islamic state in the third phase will follow. Military operation was kept only for the last moment as coup de grace. The steps stated in Op Topac have been religiously followed. 'Op Mushtary' and 'Plan X' which culminated in to Kargil operations were the key operations based on 'OP TOPAC'. The ISI sponsored militancy in Punjab once reached such a dangerous proportion that it brought India to the brink of a civil war. The seeds of communalism proved too damaging to be repaired over decades. The ethnic cleansing in Kashmir Valley was systematically carried out. The J & k forces were infiltrated deep by Pak oriented elements. At one time the police forces of J & K became totally disoriented. The Civil administration was too put to dock in ninety's and the virtual control of Kashmir valley once lay in the hands of the terrorists or their sympathisers. Para Military forces very badly demoralised. Then came the Kargil offensive. Kargil-Leh road virtual remained cut off for four months and there were indications that Northern Kashmir will be cut off from the remaining part. India's full-scale offensive in the aftermath of Kargil offensive was well fizzled out by pressures from USA and European nations directly and china indirectly. The militancy, aided by fierce diplomatic offensive, dis-information compaign and financial pilferage which was later spread to other parts of India, with centre point at Kashmir, has taken not only many a valuable lives, but has cost India very dear in terms of peace, progress and finances. It has also affected India's images adversely in the world. We have lost over 32,000 lives since 1989 in this proxy war , far more than in any other war with Pakistan. We have remained far more perturbed with the problems of Punjab, Kashmir, Northern States and now Gujrat, than any other problem in India. Our financial losses are colossal. Now the Army installations and the centres of powers i.e., Indian Parliament, Lal Quila and J & K assembly have been effectively attacked. Despite India having declared that it has crossed the limit of patience; India does not find itself in a state of full-scale war against Pakistan. Had the Afghanistan fiasco not taken place, even the last phase would have gone into. Though the situation in Afghanistan turned the tables against Pakistan and in our favour, we have not effectively cashed upon it. This proxy war, thus, is not a new strategy. It is a well-planned game carried out by Pakistan gradually. Pakistan appeared to have succeeded in almost all counts in this proxy war. It is we, who have not been able even to understand this game plan of proxy war. The second point, "is 'the decisive war' only solution?" War is fought with the will of the government, competence of the armed forces and support of the nation. (Carl Von Clauswitz). After globalisation, an additional element added is 'environmental influence'. Mr. Altaf Gauhar, the once powerful Information Secretary to President Ayub Khan in the 1960s, wrote in the Nation, "All Pakistani Operations against India are conceived and launched on the basis of one assumption that the Indians are too cowardly and ill-organised to offer any effective military response which could pose a threat to Pakistan." India Today's Editorial and Cartoon along with it rightly suggest the assumption mentioned above has not proved wrong till yet. The will of the Government does not appear to be strong enough to fight a war. The dilly-dallying in any decision making is being taken as cowardliness. The Nation neither appears to be ready nor organised yet to fight a war which may ultimately turn into a nuclear war. The competence of the armed forces cannot be denied. But it also cannot be denied that the prolonged militancy has telling effects on the forces. The continuous deployment of the two third of the forces has worn out not only the soldiers patience and persistence but also the arms and equipment affecting the competence of the armed forces adversely. The support of the people has been there, but the people do not appear to be convinced by the rhetoric of the political leaders who make frequent war cries and lack action. There appears to be a clear case of 'tiger and shepherd'. The inaction on the part of India not to cross over during Kargil showed the glaring weakness in the political leadership and the people have lost somewhat faith in the decision making body. With Pakistan having acquired atomic weapons and long range missiles, both the leaders and the public are somewhat scared into getting into an all out war.        The major environmental factors affecting the region are the pressures from USA, European Union and China. Though Afghanistan operations by USA helped in turning tables against Pakistan and in our favour initially, but we have not been able to cash on these and failed miserably to take the lead over Pakistan. Despite the fact that terrorism germinated from Pakistan soil and Pakistan not only planned, created, organised, directed and controlled the Taliban but also supported Osama ben Laden and Al Qaida, Gen. Zia stage-managed to remain at the centre stage. Especially during the high pitch battle-rhetoric between India and Pakistan, USA and European Union have been putting direct influence over India not to go on to a full-scale war. USA's immediate interest is not elimination of terrorism at the world level but the terrorism, which affects USA adversely in any way. As USA & its allies do not consider ISI backed terrorist activities in India, they do not pay much heed ti India's assertions. They are worried about Indian build up because Pakistan threatens to divert its troops deployed along Afghanistan borders towards Indian borders. In case war occurs USA's interest will suffer in eliminating Al-Qaida and associates. The threat of nuclear war is given as the logic to avoid this war. India has been gradually melting under the pressure from Western powers. War hysteria raised by political leaders first after attacks on Kashmir Assembly, then on attacks on Parliament, on Jammu temple and now on soldiers' families in Jammu gradually died down under US pressure. The latest speech by the PM and the Defence Minister of giving time to Pakistan and not sparing Pakistan next time are indicatives of the helplessness of the political leadership. The reactions of the political leadership have caused the impression that India is a week kneed nation and the assumption made by Pakistanis about Indians in this regard is true. It is also important to discuss here whether full-scale war is the only answer to a proxy war. Before giving answer to this question we have to know the methodologies of 'waging a proxy war' and 'Countering' it. Methodologies of waging proxy war primarily include subversion and insurgency or a combination thereof. Subversion may be political, economic, socio-cultural or military. Insurgency may adopt conspiratorial, protracted popular war, military focus or urban warfare strategy. The best ways of countering proxy war are both covert and overt..</blockquote>

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