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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Dalvinder Singh Grewal" data-source="post: 226701" data-attributes="member: 22683">Iran-Israel War on the path of World War after US Bombing Col Dr Dalvinder Singh Grewal Prof Emeritus Desh Bhagat UniversityThe U.S. has directly entered the war against Iran, striking three nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump announced via social media. The attack came on the ninth day of the Israel-Iran war starting from 13 June 2025 in which Israeli forces have been attacking Iranian nuclear weapons facilities among other targets, including ballistic missile launchers, air defence systems, military leaders and nuclear scientists.US and Israeli officials said that American stealth bombers and the 30,000-pound (13,500-kilogram) bunker buster bomb offered the best chance of destroying heavily fortified sites connected to the Iranian nuclear program buried deep underground.Trump has vowed that he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and he had initially hoped that the threat of force would bring the country’s leaders to give up their nuclear program peacefully.There were also reports that Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main naval facility on the Persian Gulf and the epicentre for IRGC naval assets that would be used to close the strait, was struck.After this announcement, the following questions emerge which are answered gradually.1‘Wherefrom these aircrafts took off before striking? “What was the timings and process of striking?”Two separate groups of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers headed westward across the Pacific Ocean. The destination was unclear and it is possible other B-2s were sent clandestinely to hit the targets. Other aircraft could also have been involved. However, B-2s carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs are widely seen as the only readily available conventional option for targeting the deeply-buried enrichment facility at Fordo, in particular, short of a ground raid. Fordo nuclear site of Iran is in the depth of a huge mountain.It is not known if the B-2 group that appeared to be sent out over the Pacific could have made it to Iran on the timetable now established. It is very possible that this was a feint in order to provide cover for the real strike force. While the B-52s now located in Diego Garcia could drop GBU-57 MOPs, as they did in early testing, it is not a known operational capability for the type. Also using those assets would be much riskier than the B-2 due to their lack of stealth. Still, it may have been possible depending on the state of Iran’s air defences, especially in the east of country where Israeli operations have been far lower in volume, and what other assets would have assisted in the attacks. It seems most likely that another group of B-2s was sent east, using the already deployed tanker bridge, to clandestinely carry out the strikes. They could have also been moved in the days prior clandestinely to bases closer to Iran. Even the B-2 shelters in Diego Garcia could have hidden four B-2s. The UK is another established B-2 operating base, but they could have gone somewhere else, as well. The B-2 community has worked to hone its forward operations capabilities in recent years. The U.S. attack came a day after Trump mentioned that he was still deliberating what he would do, but that previous comments about giving Iran two weeks to end their nuclear ambitions were the maximum timeframe.Were the air bases in Pakistan utilised for this operation. If so, then how? This is a question to be researched in depth.3. “Was the damage to Iran nuclear sites surreal as claimed by Trump?” Trump announced on social media, “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan”. “All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of Bombs was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. Now is the time for peace! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” Trump has retweeted the statement: Fordow Is Gone’. Donald Trump called the airstrikes a ‘Historic Moment’ for the USA, Israel, and ‘the world’. ‘Iran must now agree to end this war.’ Iran however, has negated this claim saying all the nuclear devices were shifted from these sites hence no damage could be done to the nuclear.4. “Will Iran retaliate and in what manner?”Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have warned the United States earlier that strikes targeting the Islamic Republic will “result in irreparable damage for them.” And Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei declared “any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region." However, it is not known how Iran’s command and control architecture is operating and if additional capabilities have been deployed by the U.S. to degrade it in order to make a massive response harder to execute. An attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz is also a possibility. Ships are still moving through the strait. This is simply an indicator of the current situation. It will likely take time for Iran to act, especially if its command and control is being further disrupted.As a precaution, the U.S. has evacuated many of its personnel, aircraft and ships from Persian Gulf bases, but these are still potential targets, which could prompt a response from host countries if attacked. Important factor however, is that Israel has degraded Iran’s long-range ballistic missile capability over the last week — there has been no launches in the last 24 hours, which is a first and a potential indicator of the state of these forces — Iran’s short-range ballistic and cruise missile, as well as one-way attack drone capability is far more expansive and harder to target. These systems are a major threat to U.S. bases in the region. Israel too made immediate changes in its defensive set up and it was decided to shift all areas of the country from Partial and Limited Activity to Essential Activity. The instructions include: a prohibition on educational activities, gatherings, and workplaces, except for essential sectors. The public is required to follow the instructions published on the official Home Front Command channels. Full instructions will be updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.5. “Will Russia and China enter into the war in support of Iran?”The ongoing conflict has revealed limitations of China's influence. This is significant, since Beijing has invested heavily in raising Iran's international stature, including by helping it become member of SCO in 2023 and BRICS in 2024. China has ignored US sanctions to become the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. Beijing sprang a surprise in 2023 when it brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran without involvement of any Western power. Conversely, it has been a major buyer of Israeli arms in the past, even as US intervention has resulted in cancellations and scaling back over the years.China and Russia are ideologically opposed to the idea of regime change in Tehran, particularly if Western powers are instrumental for this. Arab leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, who were rattled by the Arab Spring movement in 2010, are also opposed to such attempts in the name of bringing democracy to Iran. But will they intervene if the US wants regime change?f there is one legacy that Xi Jinping wishes to leave behind, it's 'reunification' of China and Taiwan. He would rather conserve China's energies to achieve this goal than allow friction with the US over another country like Iran. China's military brass is keenly watching US actions in West Asia for clues about what it would be willing - and capable of doing - to protect Taiwan in the case of a Chinese attack on it.Since he came to power in 2013, Xi has been campaigning against the idea of a US-centric world. China has joined Russia and Turkiye in denouncing Israel's latest attacks on Iran. But these countries have done little more than express moral support, even as they could have done much more to help without direct involvement. For instance, Iran lacks an adequate air defence system, a key factor behind Israel's supremacy in the ongoing conflict. This is a gap that these 'morally supportive' countries could have narrowed.China and Turkiye, which supplied fighter jets, missiles and drones to Pakistan during the recent post-Pahalgam conflict with India, have developed cold feet. They see Israel as an extension of US power and fear a harsh reaction from Washington if they assist Iran with military hardware. Beijing's efforts to create a strong anti-US front with the help of Russia, Iran and nuclear-armed North Korea are on unsteady ground, with Trump openly wooing Putin. The American president even spoke at the G7 summit on Tuesday about the removal of Russia from the grouping in 2014 to have been a 'mistake'.Despite adding that he 'wouldn't mind' China joining G7, Trump appears determined to weaken the bond between China and Russia by dangling before Putin the possibility of ending the Ukraine war on the Russian president's terms, and softening economic sanctions at a later stage. That arrangement helps Putin - as long as Trump keeps US arms and financial support to Ukraine at suboptimal levels.But if the US does enter the Israel-Iran conflict, how long can China stay away from defending a country/regime it has poured billions into as investment?Russia had warned the US not to join Israel's attacks on Iran, amid speculation over whether Donald Trump would greenlight direct military action. Russia is one of Iran's most important allies, with the two deepening military cooperation and inking a strategic partnership agreement just months ago.But the Kremlin has not provided military support so far, and President Vladimir Putin is pitching himself as a possible mediator even as he condemns Israel's aggression. "We would like to particularly warn Washington against military intervention in the situation," Russian foreign ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. However, Trump retaliated” settle Ukraine first.”China voiced strong criticism of the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran. On June 13, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing “was deeply concerned” about the attacks, stating that China “opposes any infringement upon Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity” and called for de-escalation to preserve “regional peace and stability.” He also emphasised China's readiness to play a “constructive role”.Subsequently, at the United Nations, China’s UN Ambassador Fu Cong condemned Israel’s actions, reiterated opposition to “violations of Iran’s sovereignty,” and urged Israel to “immediately stop all risky military actions,” citing concern for their potential impact on nuclear diplomacy.In practical terms, China's embassy in both Iran and Israel issued travel advisories on June 17, urging its citizens to return home or leave via land crossings due to deteriorating security.According to political analyst Chang, Iran has long served as a vehicle for China’s foreign policy goals in the Middle East. “The Chinese… they’re losing their proxy, Iran. Iran has been accomplishing China’s foreign policy goals for quite some time. And China’s Middle East policy is now in disarray,” he stated. Chang warned that China may not quietly accept the blow to its regional ambitions. “This is a point where China is suffering a terrible loss in the Middle East,” he said. “It is not going to take that lying down, and it’s probably going to get Iran or some other party to strike us.” China’s support for Iran has been extensive, particularly through oil and weapons trade. “China was supporting the attacks on Israel across the board with elevated commodity purchases,” Chang explained. “Remember, China has taken more than 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, but also provided weapons support.”He added that Chinese-made arms are widespread among Iran-backed militias. “Hamas, Houthi militia, Hezbollah, all of them have large quantities of Chinese weapons. Iran’s weapons are made with China’s computer chips,” he noted.6. “Will it lead to a world war?”If Iran retaliates as suggested by Khamenei, bombing US positions in West Asia, the chances of aggravation of war like situation exist. As subjugation of Iran is not in the interest of Russia and China they may like to respond as proxies and even directly,</blockquote>

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