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ਸੋ ਦਰੁ | So Dar
ਸੋਹਿਲਾ | Sohilaa
ਰਾਗੁ ਸਿਰੀਰਾਗੁ | Raag Siree-Raag
Gurbani (14-53)
Ashtpadiyan (53-71)
Gurbani (71-74)
Pahre (74-78)
Chhant (78-81)
Vanjara (81-82)
Vaar Siri Raag (83-91)
Bhagat Bani (91-93)
ਰਾਗੁ ਮਾਝ | Raag Maajh
Gurbani (94-109)
Ashtpadi (109)
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Ashtpadi (129-130)
Ashtpadiyan (130-133)
Bara Maha (133-136)
Din Raen (136-137)
Vaar Maajh Ki (137-150)
ਰਾਗੁ ਗਉੜੀ | Raag Gauree
Gurbani (151-185)
Quartets/Couplets (185-220)
Ashtpadiyan (220-234)
Karhalei (234-235)
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Thintteen (343-344)
Vaar Kabir (344-345)
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ਰਾਗੁ ਆਸਾ | Raag Aasaa
Gurbani (347-348)
Chaupaday (348-364)
Panchpadde (364-365)
Kaafee (365-409)
Aasaavaree (409-411)
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Chhant (435-462)
Vaar Aasaa (462-475)
Bhagat Bani (475-488)
ਰਾਗੁ ਗੂਜਰੀ | Raag Goojaree
Gurbani (489-503)
Ashtpadiyan (503-508)
Vaar Gujari (508-517)
Vaar Gujari (517-526)
ਰਾਗੁ ਦੇਵਗੰਧਾਰੀ | Raag Dayv-Gandhaaree
Gurbani (527-536)
ਰਾਗੁ ਬਿਹਾਗੜਾ | Raag Bihaagraa
Gurbani (537-556)
Chhant (538-548)
Vaar Bihaagraa (548-556)
ਰਾਗੁ ਵਡਹੰਸ | Raag Wadhans
Gurbani (557-564)
Ashtpadiyan (564-565)
Chhant (565-575)
Ghoriaan (575-578)
Alaahaniiaa (578-582)
Vaar Wadhans (582-594)
ਰਾਗੁ ਸੋਰਠਿ | Raag Sorath
Gurbani (595-634)
Asatpadhiya (634-642)
Vaar Sorath (642-659)
ਰਾਗੁ ਧਨਾਸਰੀ | Raag Dhanasaree
Gurbani (660-685)
Astpadhiya (685-687)
Chhant (687-691)
Bhagat Bani (691-695)
ਰਾਗੁ ਜੈਤਸਰੀ | Raag Jaitsree
Gurbani (696-703)
Chhant (703-705)
Vaar Jaitsaree (705-710)
Bhagat Bani (710)
ਰਾਗੁ ਟੋਡੀ | Raag Todee
ਰਾਗੁ ਬੈਰਾੜੀ | Raag Bairaaree
ਰਾਗੁ ਤਿਲੰਗ | Raag Tilang
Gurbani (721-727)
Bhagat Bani (727)
ਰਾਗੁ ਸੂਹੀ | Raag Suhi
Gurbani (728-750)
Ashtpadiyan (750-761)
Kaafee (761-762)
Suchajee (762)
Gunvantee (763)
Chhant (763-785)
Vaar Soohee (785-792)
Bhagat Bani (792-794)
ਰਾਗੁ ਬਿਲਾਵਲੁ | Raag Bilaaval
Gurbani (795-831)
Ashtpadiyan (831-838)
Thitteen (838-840)
Vaar Sat (841-843)
Chhant (843-848)
Vaar Bilaaval (849-855)
Bhagat Bani (855-858)
ਰਾਗੁ ਗੋਂਡ | Raag Gond
Gurbani (859-869)
Ashtpadiyan (869)
Bhagat Bani (870-875)
ਰਾਗੁ ਰਾਮਕਲੀ | Raag Ramkalee
Ashtpadiyan (902-916)
Gurbani (876-902)
Anand (917-922)
Sadd (923-924)
Chhant (924-929)
Dakhnee (929-938)
Sidh Gosat (938-946)
Vaar Ramkalee (947-968)
ਰਾਗੁ ਨਟ ਨਾਰਾਇਨ | Raag Nat Narayan
Gurbani (975-980)
Ashtpadiyan (980-983)
ਰਾਗੁ ਮਾਲੀ ਗਉੜਾ | Raag Maalee Gauraa
Gurbani (984-988)
Bhagat Bani (988)
ਰਾਗੁ ਮਾਰੂ | Raag Maaroo
Gurbani (889-1008)
Ashtpadiyan (1008-1014)
Kaafee (1014-1016)
Ashtpadiyan (1016-1019)
Anjulian (1019-1020)
Solhe (1020-1033)
Dakhni (1033-1043)
ਰਾਗੁ ਤੁਖਾਰੀ | Raag Tukhaari
Bara Maha (1107-1110)
Chhant (1110-1117)
ਰਾਗੁ ਕੇਦਾਰਾ | Raag Kedara
Gurbani (1118-1123)
Bhagat Bani (1123-1124)
ਰਾਗੁ ਭੈਰਉ | Raag Bhairo
Gurbani (1125-1152)
Partaal (1153)
Ashtpadiyan (1153-1167)
ਰਾਗੁ ਬਸੰਤੁ | Raag Basant
Gurbani (1168-1187)
Ashtpadiyan (1187-1193)
Vaar Basant (1193-1196)
ਰਾਗੁ ਸਾਰਗ | Raag Saarag
Gurbani (1197-1200)
Partaal (1200-1231)
Ashtpadiyan (1232-1236)
Chhant (1236-1237)
Vaar Saarang (1237-1253)
ਰਾਗੁ ਮਲਾਰ | Raag Malaar
Gurbani (1254-1293)
Partaal (1265-1273)
Ashtpadiyan (1273-1278)
Chhant (1278)
Vaar Malaar (1278-91)
Bhagat Bani (1292-93)
ਰਾਗੁ ਕਾਨੜਾ | Raag Kaanraa
Gurbani (1294-96)
Partaal (1296-1318)
Ashtpadiyan (1308-1312)
Chhant (1312)
Vaar Kaanraa
Bhagat Bani (1318)
ਰਾਗੁ ਕਲਿਆਨ | Raag Kalyaan
Gurbani (1319-23)
Ashtpadiyan (1323-26)
ਰਾਗੁ ਪ੍ਰਭਾਤੀ | Raag Prabhaatee
Gurbani (1327-1341)
Ashtpadiyan (1342-51)
ਰਾਗੁ ਜੈਜਾਵੰਤੀ | Raag Jaijaiwanti
Gurbani (1352-53)
Salok | Gatha | Phunahe | Chaubole | Swayiye
Sehskritee Mahala 1
Sehskritee Mahala 5
Gaathaa Mahala 5
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Chaubolae Mahala 5
Shaloks Bhagat Kabir
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Swaiyyae Mahala 5
Swaiyyae in Praise of Gurus
Shaloks in Addition To Vaars
Shalok Ninth Mehl
Mundavanee Mehl 5
ਰਾਗ ਮਾਲਾ, Raag Maalaa
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As Regimes Fall In Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By
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<blockquote data-quote="Archived_Member16" data-source="post: 142881" data-attributes="member: 884"><p><u><span style="color: #ff0000">News Analysis</span></u></p><p> </p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">February 27, 2011</span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><strong><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="font-size: 18px"><span style="color: #002060">As Regimes Fall in Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By</span></span></span></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"></span></p><p> <span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><strong><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">By </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/scott_shane/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">SCOTT SHANE</span></span></a></strong></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">For nearly two decades, the leaders of </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Al Qaeda</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">In fact, the motley opposition movements that have appeared so suddenly and proved so powerful have shunned the two central tenets of the Qaeda credo: murderous violence and religious fanaticism. The demonstrators have used force defensively, treated Islam as an afterthought and embraced democracy, which is anathema to </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/osama_bin_laden/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Osama bin Laden</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> and his followers.</span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">So for Al Qaeda — and perhaps no less for the American policies that have been built around the threat it poses — the democratic revolutions that have gripped the world’s attention present a crossroads. Will the terrorist network shrivel slowly to irrelevance? Or will it find a way to exploit the chaos produced by political upheaval and the disappointment that will inevitably follow hopes now raised so high? </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">For many specialists on terrorism and the Middle East, though not all, the past few weeks have the makings of an epochal disaster for Al Qaeda, making the jihadists look like ineffectual bystanders to history while offering young Muslims an appealing alternative to terrorism. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“So far — and I emphasize so far — the score card looks pretty terrible for Al Qaeda,” said </span></span><a href="http://explore.georgetown.edu/people/prp8/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Paul R. Pillar</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, who studied terrorism and the Middle East for nearly three decades at the </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/central_intelligence_agency/index.html?inline=nyt-org" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">C.I.A.</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> and is now at </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/g/georgetown_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Georgetown University</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">. “Democracy is bad news for terrorists. The more peaceful channels people have to express grievances and pursue their goals, the less likely they are to turn to violence.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">If the terrorists network’s leaders hope to seize the moment, they have been slow off the mark. Mr. bin Laden has been silent. His Egyptian deputy, </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/ayman_al_zawahiri/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Ayman al-Zawahri</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, has issued three rambling statements from his presumed hide-out in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region that seemed oddly out of sync with the news, not noting the ouster of President </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/hosni_mubarak/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Hosni Mubarak</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> of Egypt, whose government detained and tortured Mr. Zawahri in the 1980s. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“Knocking off Mubarak has been Zawahri’s goal for more than 20 years, and he was unable to achieve it,” said </span></span><a href="http://newamerica.net/user/266" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Brian Fishman</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, a terrorism expert at the New America Foundation. “Now a nonviolent, nonreligious, pro-democracy movement got rid of him in a matter of weeks. It’s a major problem for Al Qaeda.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">The Arab revolutions, of course, remain very much a work in progress, as the Libyan leader, Col. </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/q/muammar_el_qaddafi/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Muammar el-Qaddafi</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, orders a bloody defense of Tripoli, and Yemen’s president, </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/ali_abdullah_saleh/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Ali Abdullah Saleh</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, negotiates to cling to power. The breakdown of order could create havens for terrorist cells, at least for a time — a hazard both Colonel Qaddafi and Mr. Saleh have prevented, winning the gratitude of the American government. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“There’s an operational advantage for militants in any place where law enforcement and domestic security are weak and distracted,” said </span></span><a href="http://www.cfr.org/experts/israel-egypt-iran/steven-simon/b1374" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Steven Simon</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, a fellow at the </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/council_on_foreign_relations/index.html?inline=nyt-org" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Council on Foreign Relations</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> and co-author of “</span></span><a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780812969849" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">The Age of Sacred Terror</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">.” But over all, he said, developments in the Arab countries are a strategic defeat for violent jihadism. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“These uprisings have shown that the new generation is not terribly interested in Al Qaeda’s ideology,” Mr. Simon said. He called the Zawahri statements “forlorn, if not pathetic.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">There is evidence that the uprisings have enthralled some jihadists. One Algerian man associated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the network’s North African affiliate, welcomed the uprisings in a weekend interview and said militants were returning from exile to join the battle in Libya, arming themselves from government weapons caches. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“Since the land is in chaos and Qaddafi is helping through his reactions and actions to increase the hatred of the population against him, it will be easier for us to recruit new members,” said the Algerian man, who uses the nom de guerre Abu Salman. He said that Libyans and Tunisians who had fought in Iraq or Afghanistan were now considering a return home.</span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“There is lots of work to do,” he said. “We have to help the people fighting and then build an Islamic state.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Abu Khaled, a Jordanian jihadist who fought in Iraq with the insurgent leader </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/abu_musab_al_zarqawi/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Abu Musab al-Zarqawi</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, suggested that Al Qaeda would benefit in the long run from dashed hopes. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“At the end of the day, how much change will there really be in Egypt and other countries?” he asked. “There will be many disappointed demonstrators, and that’s when they will realize what the only alternative is. We are certain that this will all play into our hands.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Michael Scheuer, author of </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/books/review/Ajami-t.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">a new biography of Mr. bin Laden</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> and head of the C.I.A.’s bin Laden unit in the late 1990s, thinks such enthusiasm is more than wishful thinking. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Mr. Scheuer says he believes that Americans, including many experts, have wildly misjudged the uprisings by focusing on the secular, English-speaking, Westernized protesters who are a natural draw for television. Thousands of Islamists have been released from prisons in Egypt alone, and the ouster of Al Qaeda’s enemy, Mr. Mubarak, will help revitalize every stripe of Islamism, including that of Al Qaeda and its allies, he said. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“The talent of an organization is not just leadership, but taking advantage of opportunities,” Mr. Scheuer said. In Al Qaeda and its allies, he said, “We’re looking over all at a more geographically widespread, probably numerically bigger and certainly more influential movement than in 2001.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">If Al Qaeda faces an uncertain moment, so does the Obama administration. For a decade, the United States has been preoccupied with the Muslim world as a source of terrorist violence — one reason both the Bush and Obama administrations had friendly relations with the authoritarian governments now under fire. </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">It was such a dominant theme of American policy that even Colonel Qaddafi, the quixotic and brutal Libyan leader who </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">President Obama</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> said Saturday should step down, had drawn American praise as a bulwark against jihadists. </span></span><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/167961" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">A cable from the American Embassy in Tripoli</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> briefing Secretary of State </span></span><a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/condoleezza_rice/index.html?inline=nyt-per" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Condoleezza Rice</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"> before a 2008 visit called Libya “a strong partner in the war against terrorism,” noting “excellent” intelligence cooperation and specifically lauding Colonel Qaddafi’s efforts to block the return of Libyan militants from Afghanistan and Iraq and to “blunt the ideological appeal of radical Islam.”</span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Such perceived dividends of cooperation with the likes of Colonel Qaddafi are now history, and that is a point not lost on the C.I.A., the State Department and the White House. As during the United States’ halting adjustment to the fall of Communist governments from 1989 to 1991, officials are scrambling to balance day-to-day crisis management with consideration of how American policy must adjust for the long term.</span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“There has to be a major rethinking of how the U.S. engages with that part of the world,” said </span></span><a href="http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=403" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">Christopher Boucek</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">, who studies the Middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have to make clear that our security no longer comes at the expense of poor governance and no rights for the people in those countries.</span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060">“All of the givens,” Mr. Boucek said, “are gone.” </span></span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="color: #002060">Souad Mekhennet contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.</span></p><p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: #002060"><strong>source:</strong></span></span> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1&hp" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #002060">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1&hp</span></u></a></p><p></span></p><p> <span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'Comic Sans MS'"></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Archived_Member16, post: 142881, member: 884"] [U][COLOR=#ff0000]News Analysis[/COLOR][/U] [LEFT][FONT=Comic Sans MS][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]February 27, 2011[/COLOR][/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Comic Sans MS][B][FONT=Verdana][SIZE=5][COLOR=#002060]As Regimes Fall in Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/FONT][FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT][/LEFT][FONT=Comic Sans MS] [LEFT][B][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]By [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/scott_shane/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]SCOTT SHANE[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][/B][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]For nearly two decades, the leaders of [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Al Qaeda[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]In fact, the motley opposition movements that have appeared so suddenly and proved so powerful have shunned the two central tenets of the Qaeda credo: murderous violence and religious fanaticism. The demonstrators have used force defensively, treated Islam as an afterthought and embraced democracy, which is anathema to [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/osama_bin_laden/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Osama bin Laden[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] and his followers.[/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]So for Al Qaeda — and perhaps no less for the American policies that have been built around the threat it poses — the democratic revolutions that have gripped the world’s attention present a crossroads. Will the terrorist network shrivel slowly to irrelevance? Or will it find a way to exploit the chaos produced by political upheaval and the disappointment that will inevitably follow hopes now raised so high? [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]For many specialists on terrorism and the Middle East, though not all, the past few weeks have the makings of an epochal disaster for Al Qaeda, making the jihadists look like ineffectual bystanders to history while offering young Muslims an appealing alternative to terrorism. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“So far — and I emphasize so far — the score card looks pretty terrible for Al Qaeda,” said [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://explore.georgetown.edu/people/prp8/"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Paul R. Pillar[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], who studied terrorism and the Middle East for nearly three decades at the [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/central_intelligence_agency/index.html?inline=nyt-org"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]C.I.A.[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] and is now at [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/g/georgetown_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Georgetown University[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]. “Democracy is bad news for terrorists. The more peaceful channels people have to express grievances and pursue their goals, the less likely they are to turn to violence.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]If the terrorists network’s leaders hope to seize the moment, they have been slow off the mark. Mr. bin Laden has been silent. His Egyptian deputy, [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/ayman_al_zawahiri/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Ayman al-Zawahri[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], has issued three rambling statements from his presumed hide-out in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region that seemed oddly out of sync with the news, not noting the ouster of President [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/hosni_mubarak/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Hosni Mubarak[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] of Egypt, whose government detained and tortured Mr. Zawahri in the 1980s. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“Knocking off Mubarak has been Zawahri’s goal for more than 20 years, and he was unable to achieve it,” said [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://newamerica.net/user/266"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Brian Fishman[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], a terrorism expert at the New America Foundation. “Now a nonviolent, nonreligious, pro-democracy movement got rid of him in a matter of weeks. It’s a major problem for Al Qaeda.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]The Arab revolutions, of course, remain very much a work in progress, as the Libyan leader, Col. [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/q/muammar_el_qaddafi/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Muammar el-Qaddafi[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], orders a bloody defense of Tripoli, and Yemen’s president, [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/ali_abdullah_saleh/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Ali Abdullah Saleh[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], negotiates to cling to power. The breakdown of order could create havens for terrorist cells, at least for a time — a hazard both Colonel Qaddafi and Mr. Saleh have prevented, winning the gratitude of the American government. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“There’s an operational advantage for militants in any place where law enforcement and domestic security are weak and distracted,” said [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://www.cfr.org/experts/israel-egypt-iran/steven-simon/b1374"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Steven Simon[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], a fellow at the [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/council_on_foreign_relations/index.html?inline=nyt-org"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Council on Foreign Relations[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] and co-author of “[/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://www.randomhouse.com/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780812969849"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]The Age of Sacred Terror[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060].” But over all, he said, developments in the Arab countries are a strategic defeat for violent jihadism. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“These uprisings have shown that the new generation is not terribly interested in Al Qaeda’s ideology,” Mr. Simon said. He called the Zawahri statements “forlorn, if not pathetic.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]There is evidence that the uprisings have enthralled some jihadists. One Algerian man associated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the network’s North African affiliate, welcomed the uprisings in a weekend interview and said militants were returning from exile to join the battle in Libya, arming themselves from government weapons caches. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“Since the land is in chaos and Qaddafi is helping through his reactions and actions to increase the hatred of the population against him, it will be easier for us to recruit new members,” said the Algerian man, who uses the nom de guerre Abu Salman. He said that Libyans and Tunisians who had fought in Iraq or Afghanistan were now considering a return home.[/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“There is lots of work to do,” he said. “We have to help the people fighting and then build an Islamic state.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Abu Khaled, a Jordanian jihadist who fought in Iraq with the insurgent leader [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/z/abu_musab_al_zarqawi/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Abu Musab al-Zarqawi[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], suggested that Al Qaeda would benefit in the long run from dashed hopes. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“At the end of the day, how much change will there really be in Egypt and other countries?” he asked. “There will be many disappointed demonstrators, and that’s when they will realize what the only alternative is. We are certain that this will all play into our hands.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Michael Scheuer, author of [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/books/review/Ajami-t.html"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]a new biography of Mr. bin Laden[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] and head of the C.I.A.’s bin Laden unit in the late 1990s, thinks such enthusiasm is more than wishful thinking. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Mr. Scheuer says he believes that Americans, including many experts, have wildly misjudged the uprisings by focusing on the secular, English-speaking, Westernized protesters who are a natural draw for television. Thousands of Islamists have been released from prisons in Egypt alone, and the ouster of Al Qaeda’s enemy, Mr. Mubarak, will help revitalize every stripe of Islamism, including that of Al Qaeda and its allies, he said. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“The talent of an organization is not just leadership, but taking advantage of opportunities,” Mr. Scheuer said. In Al Qaeda and its allies, he said, “We’re looking over all at a more geographically widespread, probably numerically bigger and certainly more influential movement than in 2001.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]If Al Qaeda faces an uncertain moment, so does the Obama administration. For a decade, the United States has been preoccupied with the Muslim world as a source of terrorist violence — one reason both the Bush and Obama administrations had friendly relations with the authoritarian governments now under fire. [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]It was such a dominant theme of American policy that even Colonel Qaddafi, the quixotic and brutal Libyan leader who [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]President Obama[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] said Saturday should step down, had drawn American praise as a bulwark against jihadists. [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/167961"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]A cable from the American Embassy in Tripoli[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] briefing Secretary of State [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/condoleezza_rice/index.html?inline=nyt-per"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Condoleezza Rice[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060] before a 2008 visit called Libya “a strong partner in the war against terrorism,” noting “excellent” intelligence cooperation and specifically lauding Colonel Qaddafi’s efforts to block the return of Libyan militants from Afghanistan and Iraq and to “blunt the ideological appeal of radical Islam.”[/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Such perceived dividends of cooperation with the likes of Colonel Qaddafi are now history, and that is a point not lost on the C.I.A., the State Department and the White House. As during the United States’ halting adjustment to the fall of Communist governments from 1989 to 1991, officials are scrambling to balance day-to-day crisis management with consideration of how American policy must adjust for the long term.[/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“There has to be a major rethinking of how the U.S. engages with that part of the world,” said [/COLOR][/FONT][URL="http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=403"][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]Christopher Boucek[/COLOR][/FONT][/URL][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060], who studies the Middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have to make clear that our security no longer comes at the expense of poor governance and no rights for the people in those countries.[/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060]“All of the givens,” Mr. Boucek said, “are gone.” [/COLOR][/FONT][/LEFT] [LEFT][COLOR=#002060]Souad Mekhennet contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.[/COLOR][/LEFT] [LEFT][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=#002060][B]source:[/B][/COLOR][/FONT] [URL="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1&hp"][U][COLOR=#002060]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1&hp[/COLOR][/U][/URL][/LEFT] [/FONT] [/QUOTE]
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