Iran, Israel, US war

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Araghchi said Tehran is ready to form a probe panel with regional countries on targets that were attacked, Iran's Fars News reported. Earlier, Iran had claimed that Israel and US were rebranding their Shahed drones to frame Iran.
Amid unverified claims and rumors about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's safety, Iran Guards on Sunday vowed to ‘pursue and kill’ him, AFP reported.
Loud explosions were reportedly heard in central Israel on Sunday morning that followed air raid sirens there in view of Iranian missile strike there. Earlier, Iran on launched missile strikes on Saudi's Al Kharj Air Base, used by the US military. The IRGC said that Al Kharj base served as the "origin of aggressions against the Islamic homeland," functioning as the staging ground for US F-35 and F-16 fighter jets involved in attacks on Iran.
The United States Department of Defence has identified the six airmen who were killed in a refuelling plane crash over Iraq a few days ago, Reuters reported. As the war in the Middle East entered its third week, US President Donald Trump on Saturday claimed that Iran is ready to negotiate a deal to end the war, but he is not prepared to agree to a ceasefire yet since the terms offered are insufficient.
Trump made the remarks during an interview with NBC News and said that he is unwilling to make a deal with Tehran at this stage despite indications the country wants negotiations. "Iran wants to make a deal, and I don't want to make it because the terms aren't good enough yet," he said, adding that any terms will have to be "very solid".
Meanwhile, loud explosions were reported from Bahrain's Manama on Sunday morning.
The six American soldiers who were killed in a refuelling plane crash in Iraq early this week have been identified as:

• Major John A. Klinner, 33
• Captain Ariana G. Savino, 31
• Technical Sergeant Ashley B. Pruitt, 34
• Captain Seth R. Koval, 38
• Captain Curtis J. Angst, 30
• Technical Sergeant Tyler H. Simmons, 28

15 factory workers killed in Iran's Isfahan
At least 15 workers were killed in an airstrike on a factory in Iran's Isfahan city on Saturday. While Israel’s military denied a role in the airstrike, the US military declined to respond to a query by the Associated Press.
Trump's fresh Kharg Island threat
Day after the United Stated hit Iran's oil hub Kharg Island, President Donald Trump on Saturday said it may launch strikes again even as Tehran has vowed retaliation in response to Friday's attack. Trump, in an interview to NBC News, said while Tehran appears ready to make a deal to end the conflict, “the terms aren’t good enough yet.” Trump said the US strikes had "totally demolished" most of Kharg Island, adding that "we may hit it a few more times just for fun."
Rumors, fake claims on Benjamin Netanyahu's ‘assassination’
Amid unverified claims and reports of Benjamin Netanyahu being assassinated doing rounds on social media, the Israeli Prime Minister's office reportedly dismissed the "fake news" and said that the PM is "fine". Several videos and posts on social media seemingly discussed speculations of Netanyahu's death after a video posted by his X handle triggered a wave of online conspiracy theories. However, the Israeli PM's office told Turkish news agency, Anadolu Ajansı, that social media claims of "Netanyahu has been assassinated" are "fake news". "The Prime Minister is fine," the office stated.

Mar 15, 2026 9:26:51 PM IST UEFA cancels Argentina vs Spain Finalissima in Qatar
UEFA announced on Sunday that the Finalissima between Argentina and Spain, scheduled for March 27 in Doha, has been cancelled due to security concerns amid rising tensions in the Middle East, reported AP.
The European soccer governing body said the safety of players, staff and fans could not be guaranteed given the escalating regional conflict.
Mar 15, 2026 8:52:32 PM IST
Netanyahu addresses death rumours in new video
US Iran war live updates: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared a video message on social media on Sunday amid rumours circulating online about his safety.
In the post on X, Netanyahu wrote in Hebrew, “They say I'm what? Watch."

Mar 15, 2026 8:50:27 PM IST

IEA says emergency oil reserves to start flowing to global markets​

US Iran war live updates: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil from emergency reserves will soon begin flowing into global markets as governments move to stabilise supplies.
In a statement, the IEA said governments have committed to make available 116.6 million barrels of oil from obligated industry stocks.
According to the agency, 72% of the planned releases are crude oil, while 28% are oil products.
The IEA also said member countries in the Americas will make 172.2 million barrels available as part of the coordinated supply effort.
Mar 15, 2026 8:44:30 PM IST

Israel denies interceptor shortage amid scarcity reports​

US Iran war live updates: An Israeli military source on Sunday reportedly denied reports that the country was running low on missile interceptors used in its air defence systems.
Citing US officials, news outlet Semafor had reported that Israel had informed Washington it was “running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors” as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its third week.
“As of now, there is no interceptor shortage. The IDF prepared for prolonged combat. We are continuously monitoring the situation,” the military source said in response to media queries.

Mar 15, 2026 8:29:53 PM IST

Photo shows smoke rising over Isfahan after strike on industrial area​

(AFP)
US Iran war live updates: A user-generated image shared on social media on March 14, 2026, showed plumes of smoke rising over the Iranian city of Isfahan following strikes on the area.
According to Iran’s Fars news agency, a US-Israeli missile attack on an industrial area in the city killed at least 15 people.
Mar 15, 2026 8:22:01 PM IST

Iran not interested in talks with US, says foreign minister Abbas Araghchi​

US Iran war live updates: Iran is not interested in holding talks with the United States, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said, pushing back against President Donald Trump’s claim that Tehran wants a deal to end the war.
“We are stable and strong enough. We are only defending our people,” Araghchi told CBS in an interview aired Sunday.
“We don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us.”

Mar 15, 2026 8:11:38 PM IST

Drone hits Italy-US base in Kuwait, no injuries reported​

US Iran war live updates: A drone struck a joint Italy-US military base in Kuwait, but no injuries were reported, the Italian government said, reported AFP.
Mar 15, 2026 8:07:54 PM IST

Kuwait, Qatar FMs discuss ‘escalating military tensions’ in region​

US Iran war live updates: Kuwaiti foreign minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah held a phone call with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to discuss the growing conflict in the region.
The two leaders discussed “the escalating military tensions in the region resulting from Iran’s reprehensible aggression against regional countries, as well as the serious repercussions and alarming consequences this entails for security and stability at both the regional and international levels,” Kuwait’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Mar 15, 2026 7:45:19 PM IST

Lebanon says 850 killed since Israel escalated attacks​

US Iran war live updates: Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 850 people have been killed and 2,105 wounded since Israel escalated its attacks on the country on March 2, AFP reported.
Mar 15, 2026 7:09:44 PM IST

Tel Aviv targets military sites; Tehran targeting civilians, says Israel FM Sa’ar​

US Iran war live updates: Israel is targeting Iranian military installations while Iran is striking civilian areas, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said.
“We are targeting Iranian military installations; Iran targeting civilians,” Sa’ar said, drawing a contrast between Israel’s military objectives and Iran’s missile attacks.

Mar 15, 2026 7:08:14 PM IST

Indian-flagged tanker sails safely from Fujairah amid tensions​

US Iran war live updates: An Indian-flagged crude tanker sailed out safely from the UAE’s Fujairah after loading oil despite the recent attack on the oil terminal, as the government said it is closely monitoring the situation in West Asia while ensuring stable fuel supplies and maritime safety.
The vessel Jag Laadki, carrying about 80,800 tonnes of Murban crude oil, departed Fujairah at 1030 hrs IST and is bound for India, with all crew members safe, according to a government update cited by PTI.
Jag Laadki is the fourth Indian-flagged vessel to exit the war zone unharmed.
Officials said the development is significant for India as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected energy supplies, making the cargo on board the tanker critical.
Mar 15, 2026 6:53:39 PM IST

Iran conflict may end in ‘next few weeks’, says US energy secretary​

US Iran war live updates: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the conflict involving Iran could end in the “next few weeks,” adding that oil supplies may rebound and energy prices could fall afterward.
Speaking in an interview with ABC News, Wright said he expects oil markets to stabilise once the conflict de-escalates, leading to improved supply and lower prices, reported Reuters.

Mar 15, 2026 6:30:40 PM IST

Gulf states report new missile, drone attacks​

US Iran war live updates: Several Gulf Arab states reported new missile and drone attacks on Sunday as Iran threatened to widen its military campaign in the war with the United States and Israel, now in its third week.
Authorities in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates warned residents that air defences were working to intercept incoming projectiles, reported AP.
The developments came a day after Iran called for evacuations from three major UAE ports, marking the first time Tehran threatened non-US assets in a neighbouring country.
Iran had earlier accused the United States of using “ports, docks and hideouts” in the UAE to launch strikes on Kharg Island, home to the main terminal handling Iran’s oil exports.
Mar 15, 2026 6:13:58 PM IST

Pope Leo XIV renews call for peace in Middle East​

US Iran war live updates: Pope Leo XIV on Sunday renewed his appeal for peace in the Middle East, urging an end to the war and the reopening of dialogue.
“Dear brothers and sisters, for two weeks the peoples of the Middle East have suffered the atrocious violence of war,” the US pontiff said during his weekly Angelus prayer at the Vatican, reported AFP.
“Thousands of innocent people have been killed, and countless others have been forced to flee their homes.”
“I renew my closeness to all those who have lost loved ones in the attacks that have hit schools, hospitals, and residential areas,” he said.
The pope also said the situation in Lebanon was a particular cause for concern.

Mar 15, 2026 6:09:27 PM IST

Iran war appears to be escalating, plan for campaign unclear, says Norway PM​

US Iran war live updates: The ongoing Iran war appears to be escalating and the overall plan for the military campaign remains unclear, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on Sunday, reported Reuters.
He warned that the conflict in the region seemed to be intensifying and suggested there was no clear direction yet on how the military campaign would proceed.
Mar 15, 2026 6:05:12 PM IST

Tehran proposes regional probe panel​

US Iran war live updates: The Iranian foreign minister said Tehran was willing to work with regional countries to investigate the targets that had been hit during the conflict, according to excerpts from his recent interview that he shared on Telegram.
“We are ready to form a committee with regional countries to investigate the targets that have been attacked,” Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.
He also suggested Israel could be responsible for attacks on civilian sites in Arab countries in an attempt to damage relations with Iran.
“Israel may be behind attacks on civilian targets in Arab countries in order to damage relations with Iran,” he said.

Mar 15, 2026 5:42:28 PM IST

Iran says Strait of Hormuz open but with restrictions​

U.S.-Iran war live updates: Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that Iran could retaliate if its energy infrastructure comes under attack, according to excerpts from his recent interview that he shared on Telegram.
“If our energy facilities are targeted, we will also target the facilities of American companies in the region,” he said in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.
He also said the Strait of Hormuz remained open but with restrictions.
“The Strait of Hormuz is open to everyone, except American ships and their allies,” he said.
Mar 15, 2026 5:19:59 PM IST

Missile fragment hits building used by US consul in Israel, report says​

US Iran war live updates: A fragment of an Iranian missile struck a residential building used by the US consul in Israel, Reuters reported citing Israeli media.
The reports did not immediately provide further details about the incident.

Mar 15, 2026 5:13:13 PM IST

Tehran warns of ‘9/11-style false-flag plot'​

US Iran war live updates: Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, said, “I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it.”
In a post on X, Larijani said Iran opposes such terrorist acts in principle and stressed that Tehran was not at war with the American people.
Mar 15, 2026 4:49:10 PM IST

Israel approves $827 million emergency budget for military purchases​

US Iran war live updates: Israel has approved an emergency budget allocation of $827 million for military purchases as the war with Iran entered its third week, news agency AFP reported citing Israeli media on Sunday.
According to the report citing daily Haaretz, the 2.6-billion-shekel package was cleared over the weekend during a telephone meeting of cabinet ministers.
The funds will be used for “security purchases” and to address “urgent needs,” the report said, without providing further details.
The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet officially commented on the measure or specified what purchases the funds will cover.

Mar 15, 2026 4:07:39 PM IST

UAE arrests 25 for praising Iran and promoting its military actions, says report​

US Iran war live updates: Authorities in the United Arab Emirates have arrested 25 people accused of praising Iran and its leadership and promoting its military actions, according to a report by Al Arabiya.
Some of those detained were also accused of calling for solidarity with Iran and sharing what authorities described as fabricated video clips related to the ongoing conflict.
Mar 15, 2026 3:51:23 PM IST

Oil loading resumes at UAE's Fujairah port after drone strike​

US Iran war live updates: Oil loading operations at the key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates have resumed after a drone strike and fire on Saturday forced a temporary halt.
The port — the country’s only export route that bypasses the blocked Strait of Hormuz — is considered crucial for keeping oil supplies flowing to global markets.
Operations have restarted, according to people familiar with the matter who were not authorised to speak publicly. Calls to the port authorities and the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. were not answered. News agency Bloomberg had earlier reported that the fire triggered by the strike had been extinguished.

Mar 15, 2026 3:25:23 PM IST

Bulldozer clears rubble after Israeli airstrike in Beirut​

AP
US Iran war live updates: Photo shows bulldozer clearing debris from the rubble of buildings destroyed in an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon, on Sunday, March 15, 2026.
Mar 15, 2026 3:17:46 PM IST

Iran urges restraint in call with France​

US Iran war live updates: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart that countries should avoid steps that could further intensify the conflict in the region.
“Each country needs to refrain from any action that can escalate conflict,” Araghchi said in a message shared on his Telegram account, reported Reuters.

Mar 15, 2026 2:58:12 PM IST

Israeli troops fire on family car in occupied West Bank; four killed​

Israel Iran war: Israeli soldiers opened fire on a car carrying a family in the northern West Bank late Saturday, killing four people including two children, according to the Palestinian authority’s health ministry cited by AP.
The official Palestinian news agency reported that the family had stepped out to buy new clothes ahead of the upcoming Eid al-Fitr holiday when the shooting occurred. Israeli authorities said the incident is under investigation.
The Palestinian Red Crescent said the victims, Ali Odeh, Waed Odeh, and two of their four children, were shot in the head. The group added that the couple’s two surviving children suffered shrapnel injuries and were treated by first responders after emergency teams were allowed access to the scene. It also accused Israeli forces of delaying ambulances that had been dispatched.
In a joint statement issued Sunday, Israel’s military and police said troops opened fire after a car accelerated toward them in the town of Tammun. The forces were pursuing individuals suspected of “terrorist activity,” they said, adding that the circumstances surrounding the shooting are being examined.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The Gulf bases of the US

BAHRAIN:
Home to the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, whose area of responsibility includes the Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

QATAR:
The 24-hectare Al Udeid Air Base, in the desert outside the capital Doha, is the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command, which directs U.S. military operations in territory stretching from Egypt in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. The Middle East's largest U.S. base houses around 10,000 troops.

KUWAIT:
Several military installations include Camp Arifjan, the forward headquarters of U.S. Army Central and the Ali Al Salem Air Base, roughly 40 km from the Iraqi border and known as "The Rock" because of its isolated, rugged environment. Camp Buehring was established during the 2003 Iraq War and is a staging post for U.S. Army units deploying into Iraq and Syria, according to the U.S. Army website.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES:
The Al Dhafra Air Base, situated south of UAE capital Abu Dhabi and shared with the UAE Air Force, is a critical U.S. Air Force hub that has supported missions against the Islamic State, as well as reconnaissance deployments across the region, according to the U.S. Air Force Central Command.

Dubai's Jebel Ali Port, while not a formal military base, is the U.S. Navy's largest port of call in the Middle East that regularly hosts U.S. aircraft carriers and other vessels.

IRAQ:
The U.S. maintains a presence at Ain Al Asad Air Base in western Anbar province, supporting Iraqi security forces and contributing to the NATO mission, according to the White House. Iranian missile strikes targeted the base in 2020, in retaliation, opens new tab for the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

Situated in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, Erbil Air Base serves as a hub for U.S. and coalition forces conducting training exercises and battle drills. The base supports U.S. military efforts by providing a secure location for training, intelligence sharing, and logistical coordination in northern Iraq, according to the congressional report.

SAUDI ARABIA:
U.S. soldiers in Saudi Arabia - which numbered 2,321 in 2024 according to a White House letter - operate in coordination with the Saudi government, providing air and missile defence capabilities and supporting the operation of U.S. military aircraft.

Some are stationed roughly 60 km south of Riyadh, at Prince Sultan Air Base, which supports U.S. Army assets including Patriot missile batteries and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems.

JORDAN:
Located in Azraq, 100 km northeast of the capital Amman, the Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base hosts the U.S. Air Forces Central's 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing, which engages in missions across the Levant, according to a 2024 report in the Library of Congress.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

US bases in Gulf attacked by Iran
What began 10 days ago as a joint operation on Iran by the US and Israel has sprawled into a wider conflict, with most of the West Asian countries being dragged in. Tehran has deployed hundreds of missiles and drones at Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, causing unprecedented destruction across airports, oil refineries, hotels, government buildings and other crucial infrastructure

Smoke rises from a high-rise building following a drone attack in Kuwait City on March 8. The war, now in its tenth day, continues to extract a heavy toll on Gulf countries. AFP

Ten days of intense fighting. Ten days of conflict, and there’s no sign of the Iran war abating. The Islamic Republic launched more attacks on Israel and Gulf countries on Monday. Now, nearly every country in West Asia has sustained damage from missile hits, drone strikes, or shrapnel.

The attacks have disrupted supply chains, creating uncertainty for the oil and gas and fertilizer industries as key infrastructure has been targeted or shut down out of caution. Shipping traffic has halted along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route. As the conflict continues to broaden, here’s a look at how the rich countries in West Asia are bearing the brunt of the war.

Bahrain

Since the Iran war broke out on February 28, the country of Bahrain has been significantly targeted by the Iranian Guards.
On Monday, Bahrain said that an Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra injured 32 people overnight. All of the wounded were Bahraini citizens, and there were four “serious cases”, including children, the health ministry said in a statement carried by the state news agency, adding that the wounded included a 17-year-old girl who suffered severe head and eye injuries, and a two-month-old baby.

Smoke rises from a high-rise building following a drone attack in Kuwait City on March 8. The war, now in its tenth day, continues to extract a heavy toll on Gulf countries. AFP

Smoke rises following a strike on the Bapco Oil Refinery, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, on Sitra Island Bahrain. Reuters

Also, an Iranian strike targeted Bahrain’s sprawling Al Ma’ameer oil facility, causing a fire at the complex along with material damage. “Outbreak of a fire due to the Iranian aggression targeting a facility in Al Ma’ameer, with material damage reported but no casualties recorded, and the competent authorities have begun firefighting procedures,” Bahrain News Agency said in a post on X.

Following the attack, Bahrain’s state-owned energy company Bapco declared force majeure.

Earlier, Bahrain reported a single death linked to a strike that hit the country. Another drone strike also hit an Amazon data centre in Bahrain, the tech company said last Tuesday.

Damage caused by an Iranian drone strike on one of the buildings next to the Navy Base Headquarters of US Navy 5th Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain. Reuters

Kuwait

New explosions could be heard across Kuwait on Monday, but details are yet to be provided. This comes after the West Asian country was targeted by seven missiles and five drones on Sunday, according to authorities.

On Sunday, Kuwait faced a barrage of strikes, with authorities noting that Kuwait’s main building for social security was targeted, causing material damage, and that it would not receive visitors there on Sunday.

Additionally, fuel tanks at Kuwait’s international airport were targeted in a drone attack, the military said. The official Kuwait News Agency said a fire at the airport was brought under control, reporting no “significant injuries”. The military called the drone attack “a direct targeting of vital infrastructure”.
As a result, the country’s national oil company announced a “precautionary” cut to its crude production.
As of the latest reports, Kuwait has reported 10 deaths, including six US military members.

Also, last Monday, the US Embassy compound in Kuwait was struck, resulting in its closure, the second such move in West Asia since the war with Iran began. A satellite image shows the main building in the complex destroyed, with a trail of black smoke rising from it. It’s in Port Shuaiba, a working seaport south of Kuwait City.

Saudi Arabia
On Monday, the West Asian kingdom announced that it had intercepted a drone attack targeting the Shaybah oil field in the east, near the Emirati border. Additionally, two Bangladeshi nationals have died after a projectile fell on a residential site in the central part of the kingdom.
The Civil Defense added that 12 others were injured by the projectile, but did not mention who was responsible for the attack.

The US Central Command further announced that a US soldier, who was injured in an attack on American troops on March 1, had succumbed to his injuries. “This is the seventh service member killed in action during Operation Epic Fury,” said Centcom, adding that the soldier’s identity will be withheld until 24 hours after next-of-kin notification.

Smoke rises above the city, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Reuters

As the Iran war continues, 10 days since it first began, American personnel at the US diplomatic mission in Saudi Arabia have been ordered to leave the country. Last Tuesday, the Saudi Defence Ministry said the US embassy in Riyadh was attacked by two drones, which sparked a small fire. The US closed the embassy following the attack.
United Arab Emirates
More than 1,000 strikes and counting… That’s how much Iran has targeted the United Arab Emirates since the beginning of the war. On Monday (March 8), the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority said in a statement on X that air defences responded to “a missile threat”.
On Sunday too, the UAE said its air defenses detected 17 ballistic missiles — destroying 16, while one fell into the sea.

This video grab taken from UGC images posted on social media on March 7, 2026 shows smoke rising from the Dubai International Airport. Dubai airport, the world’s busiest for international traffic, suspended operations on March 7 before partially resuming services, after an air defence interception in the area during attacks from Iran. AFP

So far, at least three foreign workers from Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, have died in strikes on the UAE since the Iran war started. Earlier, when Iran began its retaliatory attacks, Dubai’s international airport and its landmark Burj Al Arab hotel were damaged, and at least four staff members were injured.

The country’s airspace has been closed for commercial flights, and travellers have been left stranded. Demand for charter flights out of the UAE has since skyrocketed, with some people reportedly paying up to thousands of dollars for a seat.

Qatar

According to AFP journalists, several explosions were heard on Monday in the Qatari capital Doha. Doha has been targeted by waves of drones and missiles since Iran launched a retaliation campaign across the Gulf in the wake of US and Israeli attacks against the Islamic Republic.

And even while Iran continued its attacks on Qatar, its Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told Sky News his country will continue to seek de-escalation. “We will continue talking to the Iranians, we will continue trying to seek de-escalation,” the prime minister said, adding, “What happened is really a huge shake-up for the trust in the relationship that we have with Iran.”

Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, as seen from Doha, Qatar. Reuters

Travel in and out of Qatar has also been disrupted significantly as a result of Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

These countries have borne much of Tehran’s response after the United States and Israel’s strikes on Saturday, with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian warning that the Islamic republic “will be forced to respond” against its neighbours if their territory is used to attack it.

It’s a matter of time to see how this war unfolds — will Iran capitulate, or will Israel-US be pressured to stop?

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

'Ready to halt war if Iran changes course': Israel envoy​

Source: PTI
March 16, 2026 20:23 IST
Amidst the West Asia conflict, Israel signals its readiness to halt hostilities if Iran shifts its course and engages in diplomacy, according to Israeli ambassador Reuven Azar.

IMAGE: Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 16, 2026. Photograph: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Key Points​

• Israel claims to have significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities, including naval and air forces, through military action.
• Israel consulted with the US and regional partners on diplomatic resolutions but ultimately resorted to military action due to Iran's unchanging stance.
• The conflict has impacted global aviation and oil prices, potentially triggering an energy crisis, highlighting the widespread consequences.
• Israel alleges Iran attacked Gulf countries, accusing them of using terror and extortion tactics, further escalating regional tensions.

Amid the raging conflict in West Asia, Israeli Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, on Monday said "we are ready to stop hostilities if Iran changes course," and asserted that Tel Aviv has consulted "diplomatic channels" in the last few days, including its partners, the US and countries in the region.
Asked about Israel's plans as the conflict entered its 17th day on Monday, Azar told reporters, "I don't think a full-fledged terrestrial invasion is on the cards."

He also said that through the military action, "we've managed to degrade Iran's launching capabilities" to a large extent.
"We are still hunting launchers... And the remainders of other military capabilities," the envoy said.
"Right now, we are controlling the skies of Iran," Azar told reporters, adding, "They (Iran) are in dire straits."
The West Asian conflict began on February 28 when the US-Israel combine conducted airstrikes on Iran.
In retaliation, Iran attacked the Gulf countries hosting American military bases and choked the strategic Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the US and Israel.
Asked if Iran's retaliation has made Israel change its achievable targets, Azar said, "The aims of this operation haven't changed a bit. Rather, we hope there will be a change in the regime (in Iran)."
Azar also said if Iran decides to "change course" and recognizes Israel and engages with it diplomatically, the future can be "brighter."

Diplomacy and conflict resolution​

During the interaction, Azar was also asked if Israel considered a resolution of the conflict through diplomacy.
In the past few days, Israel consulted diplomatic channels, including its partners, the US, as well as the countries in the region and a few other nations with which it doesn't have a diplomatic relationship.
"We are always for diplomacy. Unfortunately, we exhausted diplomacy to the extent that we had to take military action. We hope that diplomacy will be relevant again as a result of our military action," he said.
"And we are ready to stop hostilities if Iran changes course," he added.
https://vdo.ai/contact?utm_medium=video&utm_term=rediff.com&utm_source=vdoai_logo
The envoy was also asked whether Israel was prepared if the conflict turned into a long-drawn war.
Without much elaboration, Azar said, "We have the oxygen and the capabilities to continue this until we exhaust the options."
The conflict has impacted global aviation operations and oil prices, besides triggering a looming energy crisis.

Impact of military action​

Interacting with PTI later, Azar said, "We are pretty confident that we have been able to degrade the Iranian regime's military machinery in a very substantive way."
Both the US and Israel have "taken out Iran's naval forces, their air forces, and a lot of their production capabilities; they have zero production now", he claimed.
"We've been able to degrade their ability to retaliate and to launch missiles. Now, they are launching about 10 barrages per day, much less than what they were able to do at the beginning of the war. As long as this continues, our only limitation is the weather.
"We'll continue to control the skies of Iran and take care of our interests and continue to degrade Iran's capabilities," Azar said.
"We are fully in sync with the US in this operation," he added.
Asked if Iran's retaliation came as a surprise, the envoy said, "We are not surprised. We knew that the Iranians had this capability, but fortunately, we were pretty successful in removing it."

Accusations against Iran​

On Iran attacking the Gulf countries, Azar said it is "very unfortunate" and alleged that Iranians "decided to use terror and to extort their friends."
"Iran has launched attacks against the Gulf countries, which were supposedly their friends, and tried to threaten other countries with a lack of supplies. Fortunately, thanks to India's diplomatic efforts, two LPG ships have moved through, and I'm sure that India is going to use its best diplomatic talent, which I know it has, to safeguard its interests," Azar said.
The envoy also said that Israel "always prefers diplomacy" and had used the channel trying to "convince the Iranian leadership to change course."
"But they (Iran) didn't change their position. So, we had no choice but to use the military," he claimed.
Source: PTI

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Stop military ops in West Asia at once, says China March 16, 2026 15:27 IST​

Amid rising tensions in West Asia, China is urging all parties to cease military operations, following Trump's appeal for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz.

IMAGE: The Thailand-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree engulfed in black smoke in the Strait of Hormuz, March 11, 2026. Photograph: Royal Thai Navy/Handout via Reuters

Key Points​

• China urges all parties to immediately halt military operations in West Asia to prevent further escalation of tensions.
• The call follows US President Trump's appeal for international cooperation, including China's help, to secure the Strait of Hormuz for international transport.
• China acknowledges the impact of recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy flow, trade, and regional stability.
• China confirms ongoing discussions with the US regarding President Trump's planned visit to Beijing.
• Trump suggests delaying his visit to China if Beijing does not commit to helping keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

China on Monday called on all sides to immediately stop military operations in West Asia in response to US President Donald Trump's call to join other countries, including Beijing, to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open for international transport.
The effective closure of the vital waterway by Iran in retaliation for airstrikes by the US and Israel has proved catastrophic for global energy and trade flows, causing the largest oil supply disruption and soaring global oil prices.

China also said it is in talks with the US about Trump's planned visit to Beijing later this month.

'Damaged regional peace and global stability'​

About Trump's call to China and other countries to deploy warships to keep the strait "open and safe," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a media briefing in Beijing that the recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters impacted the flow of goods and international energy and has damaged regional peace and global stability.
Again, China calls on all sides to immediately stop military operations to avoid further escalation of tensions and prevent regional turbulence from having a larger impact on the world's economic growth, Lin said.
On Trump's comment that he may delay his visit to China at the end of the month, apparently linking his visit to Beijing's response to his appeal to help to keep Strait of Hormuz open, Lin said both Beijing and Washington are in talks about the US president's visit.
China and the United States are in communication with each other regarding Trump's China visit, Lin said, adding head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in China-US relations.

We may delay the China visit: Trump​

In an interview on Sunday with the Financial Times, Trump said China's reliance on oil from West Asia means it has to help with a new coalition he is trying to put together to get oil tanker traffic moving through the strait after Iran's threats have throttled global flows of oil.
We'd like to know before the trip whether Beijing will help. "We may delay," Trump said in the interview.
Trump, in a social media post this weekend, urged countries including China, the UK, France, and Japan to deploy warships to keep the strait "open and safe."
China, a close ally of Iran and recipient of Iranian oil supplies at cheaper costs, has condemned the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and criticized the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in American airstrikes.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Israel destroys late Ayatollah Khamenei's plane at Tehran airport​

Source: ANI
March 16, 2026 16:07 IST
In a significant blow to Iran's strategic capabilities, the Israeli Air Force has destroyed the Iranian leadership's aircraft at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport and struck over 200 military targets.

IMAGE: A demonstrator holds a poster of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a march marking the annual al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day) on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Cape Town, South Africa, March 13, 2026. Photograph: Esa Alexander/Reuters

Key Points​

• The Israeli Air Force destroyed a critical aircraft used by Iranian leaders at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran.
• The targeted aircraft was a key asset for logistics, diplomacy, and military procurement for the Iranian regime.
• Israel conducted a large-scale aerial campaign, striking over 200 targets in western and central Iran, including missile systems and defence installations.
• The strikes aim to disrupt Iran's ability to coordinate with regional allies and build military power.
• Advanced F-35I Adir stealth fighter jets were deployed by Israel for these long-range operations against Iranian targets.

The Israeli Air Force has destroyed the aircraft used by the Iranian leadership at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, marking a significant blow to the regime's strategic mobility.
In a post on X, the air force confirmed the strike, stating that they "destroyed the plane of the leader of the Iranian terror regime at the 'Mehrabad' airport in Tehran."
The aircraft was identified as a critical logistics and diplomatic tool used by the former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, additional senior officials from the terror regime, and elements in the Iranian military.
The Israeli Air Force noted that the plane was vital to "advance military procurement and manage relations with Axis countries through domestic and international flights." Consequently, the mission was specifically designed to disrupt the operational synergy between Tehran and its regional allies.
According to military officials, "the destruction of the plane impairs the ability to coordinate between the leadership of the Iranian terror regime and Axis countries in building military power and in the regime's rehabilitation capability."
By eliminating this high-value target, Israel has significantly hindered the regime's ability to maintain its military and diplomatic networks, asserting that "another strategic asset has been removed from the Iranian regime."
This high-profile strike was part of a broader, intensive aerial campaign.
Extensive Aerial Campaign Against Iran
The Israeli Air Force said it has struck more than 200 targets across western and central Iran over the past day, targeting military infrastructure, including missile systems, defence installations, and operational headquarters.
Detailing the scale of the offensive in a post on X, the IAF stated, "In the past day: The Air Force struck more than 200 targets in western and central Iran and continues to strike the ballistic missile array and defence systems of the Iranian terror regime."
The military confirmed that the targets included "headquarters in which soldiers of the Iranian terror regime operated, defence systems, and sites for the production and storage of means of combat."
These strikes are part of an ongoing campaign specifically targeting Iran's ballistic missile network and air defence systems in multiple locations across the country.

Advanced Technology Deployed​

To carry out these long-range operations, Israel has deployed its most advanced aerial technology. In an earlier post on X, the IAF shared footage of its stealth fighter jets heading toward Iran for the mission.
"He is Adir, and he is also on his way to Iran. Special documentation of F-35I jets on their way to strike," the post said, referring to the Lockheed Martin F-35I Adir aircraft.
The deployment of these specialised jets underscores the complexity and reach of the Israeli Air Force's current strike operations.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

India rejects claims of oil tanker swap with Iran for Hormuz access​

Source: PTI
March 17, 2026 00:07 IST
India has firmly denied reports of a deal with Iran to release seized oil tankers in return for safe passage of Indian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, amidst rising global oil price concerns.

IMAGE: Indian LPG carrier Shivalik arrives at Mundra Port via the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Gujarat, India, March 16, 2026. Photograph: Amit Dave/Reuters

Key Points​

• The Indian government asserts that the seized vessels are not Iranian-owned.
• India has been in communication with Iran to ensure the safe transit of Indian-flagged merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Two Indian LPG carriers successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations between India and Iran.
• Global oil and gas prices have risen due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane.

The government on Monday trashed reports that said Tehran is seeking the release of three oil tankers seized by India in return for ensuring safe passage to Indian-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
This report is baseless, top sources in the government said, adding there has been no discussion of this nature between Indian and Iranian authorities.

In any case, the three vessels are not Iranian-owned, the sources said.
New Delhi has been in touch with Tehran to ensure safe transit of over 20 Indian-flagged merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier in the day, there was a report that Iran asked India for the exchange of three tankers seized by it in exchange for permitting the safe passage of Indian-flagged or India-bound ships from the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Monday.
As per Reuters, India had earlier seized those tankers, alleging they had concealed or altered their identities and were involved in illegal ship-to-ship transfers at sea. Indian authorities seized the tankers Asphalt Star, Al Jafzia, and Stellar Ruby, alleging they had concealed or altered their identity and movements and were involved in illegal ship-to-ship transfers. Stellar Ruby is Iranian-flagged, while the other two vessels are flagged to Nicaragua and Mali, as per Reuters.
Global oil and gas prices have surged after Iran virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that handles roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas. With ANI inputs

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Trump Is Caught Between Two Bad Options​

March 16, 2026 14:49 IST
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet.
Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.

IMAGE: US President Donald John Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One on a flight back to Washington March 15, 2026. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

There is a lesson that great powers keep having to relearn, usually at critical moments in history: Allies are not retainers.
You cannot spend years treating them as an afterthought or, worse, as an adversary, and then expect them to come to your aid the moment you need help.

Key Points​

• Donald Trump's criticism of NATO and allies has strained diplomatic relationships as he now seeks help reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Closure of the Strait threatens global oil shipments, forcing Washington to seek naval support from reluctant allies.
• The crisis traces back to the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the subsequent 'maximum pressure' policy.
• Escalating drone warfare, regional strikes and geopolitical tensions are expanding the conflict with no clear resolution in sight.

US President Donald Trump has spent the better part of his second term telling NATO that it is worth nothing to him.
He threatened to take Greenland by force from a member State.
He erased (external link) two decades of history in Afghanistan when, apropos of nothing, he said the soldiers of NATO nations were never on the frontlines of that conflict.

IMAGE: An oil tanker awaits passage through the Strait of Hormuz in Iraq's territorial waters near Basra, Iraq, March 12, 2026. Photograph: Mohammed Aty/Reuters

Trump's Rift With NATO Allies​

Less than a week ago, he told British Prime Minister Keir Starmer not to bother (external link) sending aircraft carriers to the Gulf because 'We don't need them any longer. We don't need people that join wars after we've already won.'
Worse, he turned the alliance's foundational premise of collective security into a billing dispute, accusing NATO nations of being "freeloaders".
Now he stands waist deep in a quagmire of his own making and calls on NATO and other allies to send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz.
He promises to 'help A LOT' (external link).
Even as the silence from European capitals grows heavier and his own desperation more obvious, he reshapes his offer: NATO should do the heavy lifting, he says (external link).

IMAGE: The rugged, barren mountains of the Musandam Peninsula jut into the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow throughway between Iran (north) and Oman and the United Arab Emirates (south) where the waters from the Gulf of Oman enter the Persian Gulf.
Khasab, Oman, the main city sitting on the tip of the Musandam Peninsula, sits only 65 km from the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas.
The rocky limestone mountains of the peninsula rise as high as 6,500 feet (2,000 metrEs) above sea level and create fjord-like inlets along the coast.
Musandam is an exclave of Oman, separated from the rest of the country by the United Arab Emirates. Photograph: Kind courtesy MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC/wikipedia.org/Creative Commons

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis​

When one NATO nation after another declines (external link) to put its warships in harm's way, the old Trump reflex kicks in: There will be consequences, he warns (external link); not coming to his aid will be very bad for NATO's future. (In unintended irony, he is also now asking China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz -- which underlines just how little he thinks of anything other than his own worldview, because China is the one country totally unaffected by the closure of the Strait.)
It is worth pausing to consider the audacity of that stand.
His message, stripped of verbiage, is: Help me out of the hole I dug for myself, or I will remember that you didn't.
But the hole he dug itself deserves examination.
The Iran crisis that now requires allied warships to resolve did not arrive out of the blue.
In 2018, as part of Trump's bid to destroy everything that the Barack Obama administration had done, he withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal that had taken years of painstaking multilateral diplomacy to construct, and which America's European allies had begged him to preserve.
He reimposed sanctions, throttled Iran's economy, and pursued a policy of maximum pressure that he said would force Tehran into a better deal. It did not.

IMAGE: Trump signs a document reinstating sanctions against Iran after announcing the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Photograph: J Ernst/Reuters

Iran Nuclear Deal Fallout​

What it did was methodically dismantle the architecture of restraint that had kept Iranian nuclear ambitions in check.
The Europeans watched all of this, dissented loudly, and were ignored.
Now Trump is asking those same Europeans to send their sailors into a strait made dangerous by the consequences of that decision.
It takes a particular kind of audacity to call this a test of allied solidarity.

IMAGE: National flags flutter at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters

Media Pressure Over War Coverage​

The insults, too, deserve to be named plainly, because they were not policy disagreements such as you expect among even the most committed allies. Trump's insults were personal.
The Greenland episode was a stated willingness to use force or economic coercion against Denmark, a NATO founding member, to satisfy a territorial appetite.
The message received in Brussels, Berlin and Paris was that American commitment to the principle of territorial sovereignty, which is the bedrock of the post-war order NATO exists to defend, could be sacrificed to American self-interest.

IMAGE: Spanish special forces aboard the Spanish landing ship L52 Castilla during a media event of the Steadfast Dart 26 exercise on the Baltic Sea off the Putlos military training area, Germany, February 18, 2026. Photograph: Christian Charisius/Pool/Reuters
The Afghanistan riffs cut just as deep.
Thousands of European soldiers served in that campaign. Hundreds died.
To have that sacrifice waved away, to be told that allied troops had kept to the rear while Americans did the real fighting, was not merely historically illiterate.
It was a deliberate erasure of the sacrifices America's allies had made, again in a war not of their making.
That is the kind of hurt that does not fade when the news cycle moves on.

IMAGE: Smoke rises from oil tanks beside the Suez Canal hit during the initial Anglo-French assault on Port Said, November 5, 1956. Photograph: Kind courtesy Fleet Air Arm official photographer/wikipedia.org/Creative Commons
History offers lessons to powers that operate in such high-handed fashion.
When Britain and France launched their Suez adventure in 1956, they did so without consulting Washington and found themselves abandoned by the very ally whose support they had assumed.
That humiliation marked the moment both nations understood that their relationship with the US was only as special as American interest allowed.
America itself learned a version of this lesson after the First World War, when its retreat into isolationism hollowed out the League of Nations, left Europe to its own increasingly lethal devices, and eventually required a second, far costlier war to repair.
Great powers that disengage or view alliances through the lens of their own self-interest, tend to find that the world does not wait patiently for them to re-engage on their own terms.
Alliances are relationships constructed over time, built on reciprocity, on demonstrated solidarity, on the credibility that comes from being present when it costs you something.
Big-power status has never meant the freedom to disrespect your partners and still bank on their loyalty.
History is littered with the wreckage of leaders who confused the two.
Trump needed friends in the Hormuz.
He spent years making sure he wouldn't have any when it mattered.
The War They Don't Want You to See
There is a scene familiar from the history of American wars, and from the books and films that later enshrined them in public memory, where the official version and the ground truth begin to diverge so visibly that the government stops trying to close the gap and starts trying to close the reporting instead.
The Pentagon Papers [National Archives (external link)] were, at their core, a document of that divergence: decades of classified internal assessments showing that American administrations knew the Vietnam War was unwinnable while continuing to tell the public the exact opposite.
It took Daniel Ellsberg's conscience and the US supreme ourt's backbone to get that truth into print.
(For those who need a refresher, the Neil Sheehan et al book The Pentagon Papers (external link); the memoirs of then Washington Post executive editor Ben Bradlee (external link) and then publisher Katherine Graham (external link) and the 2017 movie The Post (external link), directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks, are all worth your time.)
We are not there yet, but the directional signals are worth noting.
Trump has now called on the American media to stop reporting (external link) Iranian-inflicted losses.
Such reporting, he says, harms the United States. Stripped of its patriotic wrapping, the message is simple: The actual cost of this war is damaging his image, and he would prefer that it not be discussed.
This is not a new instinct for this administration.
Last week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered an extended complaint about war coverage, singled out (external link) CNN for particular attention, and expressed the view that the sooner Trump-aligned billionaire David Ellison completes his takeover of the network, the better.
The goals of the administration are clear: Discredit the coverage, intimidate the outlets, and wait for a friendlier owner to arrive.
It is not censorship in the statutory sense. It is more ambient and, in some ways, more insidious: An attempt to make honest war reporting feel, to journalists and their employers, like a professionally and commercially dangerous act.
History has a long memory for this kind of management.
The administrations that tried it in Vietnam succeeded only in deepening the public's eventual disillusionment when the truth arrived anyway, as it always does.
The images from the Gulf are already circulating: the flag-draped coffins, the fire and smoke from destroyed assets.
The only question is whether American journalism has the institutional nerve, in this political climate, to keep telling it.
PS: A great companion read is David Halberstam's The Best and The Brightest, which tells the story of the gap between the official narrative and the ground truths in Vietnam.

IMAGE: A drone view shows people next to a damaged house, following projectile barrages towards Israel from Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, amid an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in central Israel, March 12, 2026. Photograph: Miro Maman/Reuters
Reading List:
'At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
'The answer was straightforward: Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the strait in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slow-moving supertanker or plant a limpet mine on its hull.'

IMAGE: Foreign oil tankers in Iraq's territorial waters, after unidentified attacks targeted vessels carrying Iraqi fuel oil, according to Iraqi ports officials, near Basra, Iraq March 12, 2026. Photograph: Mohammed Aty/Reuters
That quote comes from a piece by David Sanger et al in The New York Times, which presents a comprehensive situational map of where the war stands at the two-week mark.
Trump is caught between two bad options: Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet.
The Strait remains closed despite all the military.
The nuclear fuel stockpile sits untouched in tunnels under Isfahan.
The body count is rising -- 13 Americans killed, over 1,300 Iranian civilians dead.
And the US-Israel partnership is showing strain: Netanyahu bombed the Tehran oil depots against direct American advice, triggering the retaliatory drone strikes on Gulf infrastructure that followed.
The most arresting line belongs to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the nuclear fuel: 'People are going to have to go and get it.'
That sentence alone tells you how far this war still has to go. [New York Times (external link), paywalled]
In The Guardian, Simon Tisdall provides a scorching assessment of where the war stands as it enters week three: Trump without a plan, Israel reeling from strikes on its capital and on its military assets, Iran bloodied but unvanquished, the Strait still closed, and the financial cost running at over $11bn a week.
Tisdall's sharpest point is that the central problem that supposedly triggered all this, Iran's nuclear programme, remains unresolved.
Facilities bombed twice over, yet the enriched uranium stockpile and the scientific knowhow survive. [The Guardian (external link)]
Will Weissert of Associated Press points to the domestic political fallout.
Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
Democrats, still bruised from 2024, have found their first coherent attack line: He promised to bring prices down, and now gas is pushing the price of everything else up.
The Russian sanctions waiver, which is intended to ease the oil shock, has thanks to the rising price of oil handed Moscow a windfall and infuriated Ukraine and European allies simultaneously.
And the coalition-building is going nowhere: Trump says he's spoken to 'about seven' countries, won't name them, and has no timeline.
The line that captures his bind most precisely is his own, from a Kentucky rally: 'We won. In the first hour, it was over.' The Strait is still closed. [AP (external link)]
The Institute for the Study of War provides the most granular operational update of the day. Three details stand out.
First, Ukraine's Zelenskyy says he has intelligence confirming Iran is using Russian-produced Shahed drones, with Russian components, against US bases in the Gulf.
If confirmed, this marks a significant escalation: Russia moving from sharing tactics and targeting intelligence to providing actual materiel.
Second, the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly wounded and the IRGC is effectively running the war, which means the most hardline element of the Iranian state is now in the driver's seat, with no moderating hand on the wheel.
Third, and most telling on the diplomatic front: Trump says Iran wants a deal but the terms aren't good enough; Iran's foreign minister says Iran has requested neither ceasefire nor negotiations and will fight 'as long as it takes'.
Both sides are performing toughness for domestic audiences, and the Strait stays closed while they do. [ISW (external link)]
While the Indian media celebrates every tanker docking in Indian ports (three, so far, with more expected), Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar says there is no 'blanket arrangement with Iran for India-flagged ships', and that every ship movement is an 'individual happening'.
In other words, do not hold your breath waiting for dozens of tankers to dock at Indian ports -- getting each one through the war zone is a discrete act of diplomacy and negotiation. [The Hindu (external link)]

IMAGE: The crude oil tanker Seaprincess off the Gulf of Fos-sur-Mer, in Port-de-Bouc, France, March 12, 2026. Photograph: Manon Cruz/Reuters
Hamidreza Azizi (external link) (via X), says the most strategically significant development here is the India-Iran bilateral passage deal: Tehran allowed Indian ships through the Strait in exchange for New Delhi releasing seized Iranian oil tankers.
It is a small transaction with large implications: if other nations follow, Iran achieves de facto recognition of its leverage over the world's most critical oil chokepoint, which is precisely what Washington is trying to prevent.
The second thread to watch is the Houthis: A Houthi official has stated on Iranian state TV that the decision to enter the conflict has already been made.
If they activate, both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb come under simultaneous pressure, and the US navy has to cover two chokepoints at once.
Azizi also flags hardline Iranian proposals to institutionalise control of the Strait: transit tariffs, denial of passage to US-allied vessels, keeping it closed until American forces withdraw.
What began as a wartime disruption is quietly being reframed in Tehran as a permanent strategic asset.
US Senator Chris Murphy (external link) is worth following on X, mostly because he is one of the senators privy to confidential briefings on the course of the war. (Also worth keeping in mind, when you follow him, that it is also midterm season and opposition spin cannot be ruled out.)
That caveat noted, his thread is structured and specific enough to take seriously.
He identifies four compounding crises: The Strait cannot be secured by naval escorts alone: 100 tankers need escorting daily, and the mines and drones that threaten them threaten the escorts too.
Iran's drone {censored}nal is effectively inexhaustible and cheap, Gulf state interceptor stocks are being depleted, and the oil infrastructure of the entire region is increasingly exposed.
Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Iraq are widening the war, with Israel now threatening a ground invasion of Lebanon. And the Houthis, so far quiet, have the Red Sea within reach.
Murphy's sharpest point is the endgame problem: A ground invasion means thousands of American dead; a declared victory means Iran's new hardliners simply rebuild.
Trump, he says, blundered into a drone war without ever watching what drones did to Russia in Ukraine. The lesson was there, but he just didn't care.
John F Burns, 1944-2026: The New York Times foreign correspondent who spent four decades walking into places most journalists walked away from -- Sarajevo under siege, Kabul under the Taliban, Baghdad under Saddam and then under American occupation -- died last week.
He won two Pulitzer Prizes, but the awards barely capture what he actually did, which was to report, and refuse to sanitise.
He was among the handful of Western journalists who documented Saddam Hussein's Iraq from the inside, at considerable personal risk, and his dispatches from the early days of the American invasion remain some of the most clear-eyed writing produced from that catastrophe.
Burns belonged to a school of war correspondence that believed the reporter's job was to bear witness without flinching and without grandstanding, to let the human cost of conflict speak, and to hold it in the reader's face until they could not look away.
On a day when we are reading fragmentary dispatches from yet another war fought in fog and spin, his passing is worth more your attention. Here is the NYT obituary (external link), and also from the NYT, links to some of his most memorable stories (external link).
While Burns is one of those rare war correspondents who did not memorialize his work in books, read Dexter Filkins'The Forever War covers much of the same ground as Burns (Afghanistan and Iraq).
The Rorschach of war
Donald Trump said this undeclared war would take three or four days. That was three weeks ago.
What he got instead is what experts who have watched asymmetric warfare up close could have told him he would get: a conflict that does not respect timelines, does not respond to air dominance metrics, and does not stop because one side declares it over.
As experts like Professor Pape have repeatedly pointed out, asymmetric wars have a particular quality that conventional military planning struggles to accommodate: they find the cracks.
You can destroy a navy but can do nothing against a lone man in a speedboat carrying a mine. Iran has no air force left to speak of.
But it has, apparently, an inexhaustible supply of cheap drones, and an expanding list of targets.

IMAGE: Smoke rising from an area near the Dubai international airport is seen through the windshield of a vehicle, after a drone attack hit a fuel tank, according to Dubai authorities, in Dubai, March 16, 2026. Photograph: Reuters

Drone Warfare Reshapes Gulf Conflict​

Fuel tanks at Dubai international airport were struck (external link), suspending flights in the region's premier business hub. (Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi says (external link) that his country is willing to sit with others in the region to investigate such incidents, and adds that he has information that the US and Israel are carrying out false flag attacks on Arab countries to blame Iran).
The ink blot of war is spreading, and no one -- not the Pentagon's most sophisticated modellers, not the ISW analysts tracking every strike -- can tell you with confidence what its final shape will be.
The diplomatic picture is no cleaner. France's Macron has refused, categorically, to send French warships to bail Trump out, but in the same breath has warned Tehran that any strike on French personnel or assets will be treated as a hostile act.
It is a precise and pointed position: Europe will not be conscripted into America's war, but it will not be a casualty of Iran's either.
Meanwhile the war's unintended beneficiaries are doing rather well.
China is receiving all the Iranian oil it needs thanks to bilateral arrangements, quiet diplomacy, and the kind of patient statecraft that makes no headlines.
Russia, already the surprise winner of the sanctions lottery, finds itself further enriched.
Putin did not fire a shot in this war, but he is the one collecting the jackpot.
Into this picture arrive 2,500 US Marines, headed for the Strait of Hormuz.
What exactly they are to do there, how they are to enter a waterway that is mined, drone-patrolled and effectively closed, remains moot.
Their deployment seems, at least to me, more of a gesture than the outcome of planned strategy.
The week ahead may matter more than most.
Both sides are performing resolve for domestic audiences while reportedly declining, through intermediaries, to come to the table.
But wars have their own metabolism, and the signals from the Gulf suggest that the current tempo cannot hold indefinitely without something breaking in a new direction.
Whether that break leads toward an exit ramp or to a further escalation is the only question that matters right now.
If they are being honest, everyone involved will tell you that there are no clear answers, no way to forecast the immediate future.
No one knows the answer, least of all the man who started all this because he had a feeling.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

What damage has been inflicted on israel since the start of hte iran war that is not being publicized​

The Iran war has inflicted direct kinetic damage in Israel—deaths, missile impacts in multiple towns, and at least one strike on a synagogue shelter—but several consequential harms are underreported: widespread disruption to civil aviation and commerce, rising economic strain on tourism and tech sectors, and gaps in public verification because of restricted reporting and institutional narratives [1] [2] [3]. Reporting and think‑tank products emphasize military effects while often omitting granular civilian economic and infrastructural impacts, leaving important damage under-discussed [4] [5].
Accurate/Inaccurate
1. Casualties and dispersed strikes that barely make front pages
Official tallies list single-digit Israeli civilian deaths alongside many injured in the opening weeks, but ISW and live reporting note Iranian ballistic missiles—some armed with cluster munitions—impacted seven different locations in Israel, killing at least one civilian and injuring several others, including a deadly hit on a shelter in a synagogue in Beit. Shemesh, who killed multiple children; these granular local traumas are reported but receive less sustained coverage than battlefield statistics [1] [6].
2. Civil‑infrastructure damage and everyday life interrupted
Beyond headline missile barrages, the war has repeatedly disrupted Israeli airspace and forced airspace closures that grounded thousands of flights and altered global travel patterns—a kind of infrastructural damage whose ripple effects on commuting, supply chains, and international business are undercovered in battlefield dispatches [2] [7]. Domestic incidents have included strikes on shelters and urban targets that have transformed neighborhoods into intermittent danger zones, yet much reporting has focused on military exchanges rather than the slow attrition of civilian services [1] [6].
3. Economic shock that extends past pumps and portfolios
The conflict has driven oil and gas price spikes, pushing U.S. pump prices higher and signaling global supply shocks that feed directly into Israel’s economy; concurrently, Israel faces mounting budgetary strain as defense spending stays well above pre‑war norms and the national deficit widens—pressures that compress public services and household resilience but receive episodic, not sustained, attention [7] [3]. Tourism—already collapsed by roughly 60 percent since October 2023—and a projected multi‑percentage‑point increase in defence spending add debt and threaten long‑term growth, facts that are reported but not always connected to the granular human cost inside Israel [3].
4. Tech sector, labor market and the harder‑to‑count brain drain
Think tank and policy reporting warn of looming labor shortages and an emergent brain drain in technology and high-skill sectors as defenses consume more public resources and insecurity discourages foreign investment and talent retention; these dynamics are slow, cumulative forms of damage—harder to quantify quickly—and therefore receive less attention than missile counts or diplomatic maneuvers [3].
5. Political narratives, selective disclosure, and institutional blind spots
Official and allied narratives foreground military degradation of Iranian capabilities and regime change aims, while some policy analysts and geospatial teams intentionally avoid detailed accounts of war crimes or civilian harms for methodological or editorial reasons, creating an information environment where certain harms—economic dislocation, local infrastructure degradation, and small‑scale civilian trauma—are under‑emphasized [4] [5]. This selective framing suits political actors who benefit from a concise rallying narrative, whether to shore up domestic support or justify extended campaigns [3].
6. Where reporting is thin and what independent observers should focus on
Open sources note the IDF has struck more than 120 Hezbollah targets and that Iranian missile barrages have hit multiple Israeli localities, but they also caution that casualty, damage, and verification data remain difficult to confirm amid restricted access and wartime information controls; independent verification of damage to hospitals, power grids, small businesses, and the full economic toll on tourism and startups is sp{censored} and should be a priority for investigators and relief planners [1] [5] [4].

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Migration Crisis: USA Iran War Sparks a Mass Exodus​

Amélie Benarous Immigration News August 25, 2025​

Table of Contents​

1. Direct Military Confrontation Changes Everything
2. Israeli Emigration: Security Fears Drive Exodus
3. Iran’s Unprecedented Professional Migration Crisis
4. Immigration Policy Responses Worldwide
5. Regional Host Countries Overwhelmed
6. Expert Analysis: Unprecedented Crisis Ahead
7. Climate-Conflict Interaction Accelerates Crisis
8. Future Scenarios: Three Critical Pathways
9. Investment Migration: Wealthy Exodus Patterns
10. Historical Context: Why This Time Is Different
11. Long-term Immigration System Implications
12. Conclusion: A Generational Migration Transformation

The escalating USA Iran conflict has transformed from decades of proxy warfare to direct military confrontation. This shift is creating what migration experts warn could become the worst displacement and Migration Crisis in the Middle East since World War II.
Israel experienced its first net negative migration balance in decades during 2024, with 82,700 emigrants departing – a 50% increase from 2023. Meanwhile, Iran’s diaspora has swelled to over 4 million people globally.
Immigration systems worldwide now face unprecedented pressure as the conflict escalates beyond traditional regional boundaries.

Direct Military Confrontation Changes Everything​

June 2025: The Point of No Return​

June 2025 marked a critical escalation when Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This represented the first time in over 50 years that Israel declared war against a sovereign state.
The attacks prompted mass civilian evacuations from Tehran and triggered Iranian retaliation that killed Israeli civilians. Unlike previous proxy conflicts, both nations now directly target each other’s territory and population centers.

Regional Displacement Reaches Crisis Levels​

The conflict’s immediate aftermath reveals how quickly geopolitical tensions translate into mass population movements:
Nearly 2 million Palestinians (90% of Gaza’s population) remain internally displaced since October 2023. Over 1 million Lebanese have fled their homes following Israeli strikes.
Most remarkably, 230,000 people crossed from Lebanon into Syria in “reverse migration,” demonstrating how current displacement overwhelms traditional refugee flows.

Why This Crisis Differs From Past Conflicts​

The collapse of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” proxy network has forced direct confrontation. Hamas has been decimated as a military formation, while Hezbollah lost significant capability after losing key leadership.
This proxy collapse means Iran must now rely primarily on its own military capabilities rather than regional networks for the first time since 1979.

Israeli Emigration: Security Fears Drive Exodus​

Sharp Spike Following October 7 Attacks​

Data shows post-Oct. 7 emigration surge from Israel, with clear correlation between conflict escalation and departure decisions.
October 2023 saw a 285% emigration spike compared to October 2022. The demographic profile shows emigrants are predominantly highly educated, secular professionals from economically productive sectors.

Brain Drain Threatens Long-term Stability​

Nobel and Israel Prize laureates warn “We won’t have a state” if brain drain continues. Return rates dropped 21%, suggesting permanent relocations rather than temporary departures.
The emigration has since stabilized but remains elevated above historical levels, indicating sustained security concerns among Israel’s professional class.
For those considering relocation options, our comprehensive guide on the safest places to relocate in the world provides detailed analysis of secure destination countries.

Iran’s Unprecedented Professional Migration Crisis​

Massive Brain Drain Accelerates​

Iran faces an intensifying brain drain crisis affecting academic, economic, and healthcare sectors. The government now acknowledges an “uncontrolled mass migration” situation.
Iran has the world’s highest rate of brain drain, with 25% of university professors emigrating in recent years. Stanford research on migration and brain drain from Iran shows only 1% of Iranian emigrants consider returning versus the 7% global average.

Asylum Applications Surge Globally​

Iranians ranked among top asylum seekers in UK during 2024 with 8,099 claims. Canada admitted 121,863 Iranian citizens as permanent residents from 2010-2023.
Brain drain from Iran accelerates every year, with 130,000 Iranian students abroad representing the highest number on record.

Immigration Policy Responses Worldwide​

United States Implements Comprehensive Restrictions​

The US maintains strict travel restrictions on Iranian nationals, with exceptions limited to specific categories including U.S. citizens, green card holders, and immediate family members requiring enhanced screening.
These measures represent the most restrictive immigration posture toward Iran in decades, reflecting security concerns about the escalating conflict.

Canada Extends Humanitarian Protections​

Canada implemented special temporary public policies extending permits for Iranian nationals through 2025, preventing forced returns to conflict zones.
Canada maintains its position as a leading refugee resettlement destination, adapting policies for conflict-driven displacement scenarios.

European Union Coordinates Response​

UK joins with US, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Germany, France, Italy in issuing travel warnings as Iran conflict escalates.
Immigration law firms are providing updated guidance on Middle East mobility and travel considerations as diplomatic solutions collapse.

Regional Host Countries Overwhelmed​

Traditional Refugee Systems at Breaking Point​

The Middle East has experienced the world’s largest waves of migration and displacement since World War II, with over 16 million refugees and 60 million displaced persons regionally.
Many regional countries operate under the kafala system rather than traditional refugee frameworks, limiting protection options.

Iran Hosts Nearly One Million Refugees​

Despite being a source of emigration, Iran hosts nearly one million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan and Iraq, according to UNHCR data.
This dual role as both refugee host and emigration source creates complex regional dynamics as the conflict escalates.

Expert Analysis: Unprecedented Crisis Ahead​

Migration Experts Sound Alarm​

New Lines Institute analysis warns the Iran-Israel war is intensifying, with potential for millions more internally displaced if fighting continues.
A year of escalating conflict in the Middle East has ushered in a new era of regional displacement, according to research from The Conversation and Baker Institute.

Nuclear Risks Amplify Displacement Potential​

NPR analysis identifies four key things to know about the Israel-Iran conflict, including nuclear escalation risks that could trigger massive evacuation zones.
UK Parliament research briefings examine developments in Iran’s nuclear programme and military action, warning of unprecedented displacement potential.

Climate-Conflict Interaction Accelerates Crisis​

Environmental Factors Compound Displacement​

Iran faces dwindling water and escalating climate pressures, aggravating displacement threats beyond conflict-related factors.
Climate-induced displacement in the Middle East and North Africa research shows the region warming nearly twice as fast as the global average.
This convergence of conflict and climate creates compound displacement pressures that traditional migration frameworks cannot adequately address.

Future Scenarios: Three Critical Pathways​

Diplomatic Breakthrough vs. Escalation​

Foreign Policy analysis examines how the Israel-Iran war might end, identifying three potential outcomes with distinct migration implications.
Atlantic Council experts answer twenty questions on the Israel-Iran war, emphasizing that current displacement levels represent just the beginning of a potentially larger crisis.

International Framework Inadequacy​

Current global refugee systems handle 122.6 million forcibly displaced people worldwide. Additional mass displacement could overwhelm these systems.
Research on neighboring host countries’ policies for Syrian refugees shows regional frameworks already operating at capacity limits.

Investment Migration: Wealthy Exodus Patterns​

Despite travel restrictions, demand remains strong for investor residency programs. The UAE continues processing Golden Visa applications with enhanced due diligence, while Saudi Arabia has launched new premium residency options.
This pattern suggests wealthy emigrants are diversifying across multiple jurisdictions for risk mitigation, using business and investment channels to secure residency options in safer destinations.
For comprehensive guidance on secure relocation destinations, refer to our detailed analysis of the safest places to relocate in the world.

Historical Context: Why This Time Is Different​

Previous Conflicts vs. Current Crisis​

Historical Iran-Israel proxy conflicts primarily involved regional networks rather than direct military confrontation between the states themselves.
The Iran-Israel proxy conflict has evolved over decades, but the current direct warfare represents unprecedented escalation.

Unique Displacement Characteristics​

Current patterns differ significantly from historical precedents:

• Direct military confrontation between nuclear-capable powers
• Traditional host countries already saturated with existing refugees
• Global immigration system impact rather than regional containment
• Permanent rather than temporary displacement patterns emerging

Long-term Immigration System Implications​

Immediate Professional Challenges​

Immigration practitioners worldwide face:

• Rapid case processing adaptations required
• Enhanced security screening protocols
• Balancing humanitarian obligations with security concerns
• Inadequacy of traditional framework responses

Fundamental System Reform Required​

Research emphasizes that escalating Middle East conflict has ushered in a new era of regional displacement requiring fundamental international coordination.
Current displacement patterns represent what experts describe as “just the beginning of a larger crisis” demanding unprecedented policy innovation and international cooperation.

Conclusion: A Generational Migration Transformation​

The Israel-Iran conflict marks a watershed moment for global immigration systems. The transition from proxy warfare to direct military confrontation between nuclear-capable powers has created displacement dynamics unprecedented in scope and international implications.
Migration experts emphasize that current displacement levels represent just the beginning of what could become a generational migration transformation. The collapse of diplomatic solutions and trajectory toward expanded regional conflict suggest these patterns will persist for decades.
For immigration professionals worldwide, this crisis demands immediate policy adaptations while preparing for long-term demographic reshaping that could influence global migration patterns for generations to come.
Key Takeaways for Immigration Professionals:

• Israel’s net negative migration signals unprecedented regional instability
• Iran’s accelerating brain drain affects global talent markets
• Traditional refugee systems face potential framework collapse
• Nuclear escalation risks could trigger displacement exceeding all historical precedents
• Investment migration patterns reveal wealthy exodus strategies toward safer jurisdictions

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Mixed Migration consequences of the war between Israel and Iran​

Photo: Adrian Guerin, Flickr – CC license

Mixed migration consequences of the war between Israel and Iran​

On 13 June 2025, Israel launched large scale attacks on Iran, which led to an unprecedented escalation of the long-standing conflict between the two countries. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks on Israel, with occasional missiles and drones making it through Israel’s air defence system and hitting targets in Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. So far hundreds have been confirmed dead in Iran, and around 25 in Israel.

US President Trump initially distanced himself from Israel’s surprise attack, but, after a few days of incertitude and conflicting information, on 21 June the U.S. joined the conflict, carrying out strikes on multiple Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran characterised the move as an act of war, and on 23 June, Iran launched a direct missile strike against the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which was intercepted.

According to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the White House, the motivation behind Israel’s and US recent attacks was to curb Iran’s nuclear programme, which they claim was at the ‘point of no return’ in its capability to develop nuclear weapons. Alongside this, both Netanyahu and more recently Trump have been vocal about their desire for regime change in Iran.

On 23 June, shortly after the Iranian missile attack on the US airbase in Qatar, Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran had been reached, which shortly after was confirmed by both Iran and Israel. However, early morning on 24 June, Israel claimed Iran again launched missiles on Israel, which was followed by another attack on Iran by Israel. Trump immediately, in unequivocal terms, expressed his unhappiness about both sides allegedly breaking the ceasefire. After that, the office of the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, stated Israel will refrain from further attacks.

The ceasefire agreement points to the possibility of de-escalation. However, the immediate violation of the ceasefire, the continuation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Gaza, after ceasefire deals were reached, as well as the Israeli desire for regime change in Iran, raise the question if and how long the ceasefire will last. Additionally, the war and Israel’s targeted attacks on a range of military leaders, may have weakened the regime in Iran pointing to a potential for domestic unrest and instability.

In short, the situation in Iran and across the Middle East remains highly volatile and is changing almost by the hour. This preliminary analysis explores the potential mixed migration consequences of the various scenarios that may unfold as a result of the war between Israel and Iran.

Iranians: internal displacement, possible refugee movements out of Iran and involuntarily immobility ​

​

Internal displacement ​

As in nearly every conflict situation, large-scale internal displacement is one of the most immediate consequences of the hostilities.

The recent Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and other parts of Iran have spurred widespread civilian movement within the country. Early on, both Israel and US President Trump have warned Iranians to evacuate Tehran and thousands of Iranians have been fleeing Tehran and other cities that are under attack. There were traffic jams on the major roads out of Tehran and long queues to buy petrol, as thousands were leaving the capital and fleeing to the countryside to escape bombardment.

However, this displacement may be temporary, as those who have left wait to see how the conflict evolves and whether the ceasefire will hold before deciding whether it is safe to return to their homes in the capital and other major cities.

Potential for refugee movements out of Iran​

No mass exodus across international borders has been confirmed during the nearly two weeks of war, with only a small increase in crossings of Iranians into Türkiye, Armenia and Iraq reported so far. For example, in south-eastern Türkiye, 50-100 more vehicles than normal had been crossing the border with Iran. Since Iranians can travel to Türkiye visa-free and stay up to 90 days, the likelihood of large-scale irregular crossings is small. Authorities in Iraq’s Kurdish region say that they have seen Iranian Kurds arriving, but again in small numbers only.

Depending on how the situation evolves, however, there remains a potential for large-scale refugee movements out of Iran. Currently and despite the recent ceasefire, airspace remains closed, making departure by air impossible, and the ability for Iranians to secure visas is limited. This likely means that if the situation escalates again, movements overland will be among the only options for most.

Further, if the goal of regime change is indeed still pursued by Israel, there is a possible scenario in which the government of Iran will collapse and the country will descend into protracted chaos and continuing economic decline or even civil war. Indeed, contradicting an earlier statement in which Trump was referring to regime change, a day later he said he is not interested in regime change as it would mean chaos.

However, if the ceasefire will not hold and/or if a scenario of regime change and accompanying chaos materialises, there is a likelihood that many Iranians will try to flee abroad. By comparison, at the peak of the Syrian civil war, a quarter of the population were living abroad as refugees and another quarter were internally displaced. At the time, Syria had a population of around 23 million people. Iran has a population of 92 million. Additionally, Iran today has a higher GDP per capita than Syria at the start of the Syrian civil war, a much more urbanized population, and a much bigger diaspora, estimated between 4- 8 million. This means Iranians would have much more resources (financially, as well as family connections) to flee abroad compared to Syrians. Obviously, this comparison needs to be treated with caution and many caveats, since the Iran-Israel war so far only lasted for a short period of time and there are no signs yet of widespread domestic instability, while the displacement of Syrians only reached the levels mentioned above after many years of civil war.

The scale and direction of any large-scale movement out of Iran – if it would materialize – will crucially depend on the attitudes of its neighbours – especially Türkiye, Iraq, Armenia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whether these countries choose to keep borders open, facilitate reception, or actively deter entries will shape both the feasibility and geography of displacement. Türkiye, already hosting millions of displaced people, may become a key destination given the visa-free regime for Iranians. Middle East Eye reported that the Turkish government had developed potential migration scenarios and estimated that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees towards the Turkish border. However, initial reports indicate that Türkiye is not willing to implement an open-door policy in the event of the arrival of large numbers of refugees. Pakistan, meanwhile, has sealed its border with Iran to prevent a potential influx of refugees. Iraq and Afghanistan, themselves fragile and host to internal displacement, may have limited capacity or willingness to absorb large numbers of Iranians. Moreover, the complex web of geopolitical tensions and deep-seated religious divides – particularly between Sunni-majority countries and Shia-majority Iran – adds a further layer of uncertainty. Past rivalries and regional security concerns may make some neighbours reluctant to welcome Iranian refugees, especially if political collapse in Iran fuels sectarian dynamics or proxy conflicts. This underscores that the possibility of outward movement cannot be assessed in isolation from regional politics and historic animosities.

Onward movement of Iranians towards Europe​

In case of cross border movements, as usual, the majority of refugees would stay in neighbouring countries, such as Türkiye, Iraq, Armenia and Azerbaijan. As with internal displacement, people usually tend to wait and see as close to home as possible, within the region, how the situation evolves and whether they can return home, not least since there are now signs of possible de-escalation. Only several years into the Syrian war, did large numbers of Syrians decide to leave the region and move on towards Europe. So even in the case of large-scale refugee movements out of Iran in case the war re-starts, or the country will further destabilise, onward movements towards Europe are likely to remain relatively low at least for the foreseeable future. That said, there might be a slight increase in the coming months of Iranians seeking asylum in the EU.

Involuntary immobility ​

In any conflict or humanitarian crisis those who are unable to move often become a forgotten group – despite being among the most vulnerable. When the war started, many Iranians tried to find a safe place outside of the cities, however, others who needed to leave and wanted to leave, were constrained or unable to do so, as they did not have the resources and the price of travel skyrocketed; fighting became too severe and movement was dangerous and/or because they are vulnerable – or caring for vulnerable people, such as children, older people, or people with disabilities – and cannot make the journey. Forced immobility can be expected to rise in case the war re-starts, supply lines break down and food, water and fuel resources become even more scarce and expensive.

Afghan refugees in Iran: trapped between conflict, borders, and deportations​

Another forgotten group in countries in crisis are refugees and migrants already in the country. Many refugees and migrants caught up in the conflict may not have support networks, most already struggle to get by and might not have the option to leave or go home (especially in the case of refugees). The exception are foreign diplomats and aid workers, primarily from western countries, who are often quickly evacuated; indeed, thousands of foreigners have been evacuated in from Iran, as well as from Israel.

One particularly vulnerable group in Iran are Afghan refugees. Though numbers vary, it is estimated approximately 4.5 million Afghan refugees live in Iran. The situation of Afghans in Iran is precarious with many lacking legal status and relying on informal work. They are only allowed to buy food at highly inflated prices and banned from leaving Tehran and need permission to move between provinces. Rising inflation and disrupted markets in Iran is likely to further impoverish Afghans, leaving many without the resources needed to flee in case of renewed fighting or further instability, while returning to Afghanistan is not an option either.

This situation comes on top of the mounting weaponization of anti-Afghan sentiment by politicians within the country and the ramping up of mass deportations. In 2024, Iran deported 750,000 Afghans and announced a plan to deport up to 2 million by March 2025. It is unclear how the recent war and continued tensions will impact the ongoing deportation efforts by the Iranian government, but it is feasible that the Iranian government might somehow use Afghan refugees as a foreign policy tool, for example accelerating deportations to demonstrate domestic strength (or to reduce economic stress) or enabling Afghan refugees to actually move on to put pressure on other countries in the region and the EU. Sources on the ground mentioned to MMC that, after a brief pause in the arrests and deportations of Afghans in Iran during the initial days of escalation, these have now resumed aggressively in multiple Iranian cities, targeting both documented and undocumented Afghans. Additionally, some local Iranian media and online platforms have circulated unverified claims accusing Afghans of collaborating with Israel or providing intelligence, and some state media have broadcasted interviews with some Afghans confession to collaborating with Israel. Such rumours are obviously fueling anti-Afghan sentiment and increasing hostility, further compounding the already difficult situation for Afghans in Iran.

Smugglers are reportedly trying to exploit the situation of Afghan refugees in Iran, by telling them the border with Türkiye is now open for Afghan refugees, even while the border remains closed for Afghans and is only open to Iranian citizens with valid passports. A recent MMC study estimated the market value of smuggling Afghans to Türkiye to be worth USD 178.4 million per year already before the war.

In addition to the dire situation Afghan refugees find themselves in, in Iran, they have also faced severe risks, violence and pushbacks, both while trying to enter Iran – which has also been a major transit country for Afghans trying to reach Türkiye and Europe – and while trying to enter Türkiye from Iran. The situation in Afghanistan itself is dire and prices of Iranian imports have surged, while funding cuts and suspension of USAID operations by the Trump administration has further compounded the humanitarian crisis, leaving thousands without access to housing, psychosocial support, or job opportunities. This ‘perfect storm’ could potentially further increase the number of Afghans trying to enter Iran, despite the current situation.

Simultaneously, even though many are too afraid to return to Afghanistan, sources on the ground told MMC that the situation at the border between Iran and Afghanistan is chaotic, with many Afghans – especially families – trying to leave Iran.

Spillover risk and the prospect of wider displacement in the region​

Tensions remain high across the region, even more so after the U.S. involvement. If the situation rapidly escalates again, conditions could quickly lead to new displacement or mobility disruptions. In Iraq, Iran-aligned militias have threatened retaliation against ‘U.S. interests’ in the region. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah has expressed their support to Iran but has so far refrained from full engagement in the conflict. Further afield, in Yemen, the Houthis’ involvement through missile launches toward Israel and their threats to target American vessels increases the risk of reprisals in a context already marked by displacement and humanitarian crisis.

In the event of another escalation, the risk of further destabilisation in the region remains high. U.S. military installations and diplomatic missions across the Middle East – in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, the Gulf states, and even beyond – could become targets of asymmetric attacks by Iranian proxies or affiliated groups. Such retaliation would not only endanger American personnel and regional allies, but also create new outbreaks of violence that could spark localised displacement or lead host governments to crack down on perceived threats. This would further impact already vulnerable populations, including migrants, refugees, and internally displaced persons.

Moreover, heightened hostilities could trigger further militarisation of border areas and deepen securitisation policies across the region, curtailing cross-border movement and undermining humanitarian access. The entrenchment of such dynamics could set in motion longer-term displacement trends, especially if insecurity escalates in areas with fragile governance or unresolved communal tensions. Border closures, airspace restrictions, and tightened security measures risk impacting mobility and could further disrupt both migration pathways and humanitarian access across the region.

The potential response of the EU and Türkiye​

Each possible scenario will have different short- and longer-term implications for migration and displacement across the region. The European Union is likely to monitor the situation closely, particularly due to concerns about the potential onward movement of large numbers of Iranian refugees, akin to the 2015/16 large-scale arrival of Syrian refugees along the Eastern Mediterranean route. In response, we can expect an intensification of the EU’s already close partnership with Türkiye, as well as with other countries in the region, aimed at ensuring the containment of people within the region.

While Iranians until now can enter Türkiye visa-free, it remains to be seen if this will continue in case large numbers start to arrive. Meanwhile the border remains closed for Afghan refugees, who can only enter by using smugglers. While many, most likely most, Afghan refugees will be trapped inside Iran, the increasingly dire situation in Iran, might push more Afghans towards Türkiye, further elevating the human smuggling market.

The role of Türkiye will be crucial, and this dynamic will give the Turkish government renewed leverage in its relations with the EU. As before, Ankara may use migration control as political currency, seeking financial aid or political concessions.

This evolving situation is also taking place in an environment of severe budget cuts in foreign aid, first and foremost by the United States, while also many European donors are preparing for budget cuts in foreign aid to accommodate for the increased expenditure on military defence. As such, funding to support refugees and displaced people within the region might be much more restricted than previously.

Conclusion​

The situation remains fluid and volatile, with the potential for rapid shifts depending on military, political, and diplomatic developments. While a temporary ceasefire has been declared, hostilities have also resumed intermittently, and tensions remain high both within Iran and across the wider region. Each possible trajectory, from a sustained de-escalation to renewed conflict or political destabilisation within Iran, would have significant but distinct implications for mobility.

In this context, further population movement is not a hypothetical scenario but a viable possibility, one whose scale, direction, and nature will depend on the choices made not only by Iran, Israel, and their allies, but also by regional governments and the international community. Monitoring these dynamics through a mobility lens remains critical in the days and weeks to come.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Majority of the Gulf's migrants are South Asian — their families fear for their safety and free speech​

• By Angelica Silva
• Topic:War

Sat 14 Mar Saturday 14 March

Some South Asians in Australia fear for the safety of their family in the Middle East amid the US-Israel war with Iran. (AP: Fatima Shbair)
In the west of Melbourne, Indian Australian Amanthi watches as her husband anxiously sends text messages to his siblings thousands of kilometres away.
For the past five years, Amanthi's brother- and sister-in-law have enjoyed Dubai's warm weather and safe, multicultural lifestyle.
The last thing they predicted was missiles and drones lighting up Dubai's famous skyline.
Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog.
In the past fortnight, Iran has fired about 1,700 missiles and drones at its Gulf neighbour the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the vast majority of which have been shot down by air-defence systems.
Amanthi, who has asked to use a different name out of fear for her in-laws' safety, is worried they won't make it out of Dubai.
"We have been anxious, discombobulated and frustrated about the situation," Amanthi told the ABC.
"Our family there have been scared and worried themselves, but are being practical."

Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port in Dubai after an Iranian attack. (Reuters: Amr Alfiky)
Amanthi says her in-laws have their bags packed and are ready to leave.
But getting out of Dubai isn't easy.
"Flight prices are five to 10 times what they usually are, making it very prohibitive to leave," Amanthi said.

The war has led to tens of thousands of flight cancellations, reroutings and schedule changes worldwide and the closing of much of the Middle East's airspace.
In the meantime, she said her in-laws had been stocking up on essentials, working from home and trying to keep their kids calm.

"My nephew, who's in primary school, doesn't understand why or how this is happening. He's been learning from home for a week."

An intercepted Iranian drone hit the Fujairah oil facility in the United Arab Emirates on March 3. (AP: Altaf Qadri)

South Asians largest group of UAE migrants​

Figures from 2022 showed there were nearly 35 million foreign nationals working and living across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Across the GCC, South Asians make up the largest cohort, with Indians taking the top spot at 9 million, the New York Times recently reported.
Bangladeshis are next at 5 million with Pakistanis not far behind.

Indians make up the largest group of migrants living in the UAE. (AP: Kamran Jebreili)
The ABC spoke to two South Asian workers in Dubai under the condition of anonymity.
One worker, a Pakistani delivery driver, said he heard drones outside his apartment building on Wednesday evening.

Read more about the Iran war:​

When asked if he was concerned about the drone attacks, his response was: "If you write anything, please write we Pakistanis are happy and safe here in the UAE."​

"We will stand with the UAE," he continued.
Another worker, an Indian hotel staff member, said the UAE would "always take care of them" and that he "had nothing to worry about".

Dubai's 'tranquillity shattered' as Iran makes UAE a primary target​

The United Arab Emirates is reporting more Iranian attacks than any other country.
Most of these workers are part of the lower-income labour force, said Ayesha Jehangir, a war, conflict and media sociologist at the University of New South Wales.
"They work in construction, service industries, domestic work, transport and other essential sectors that keep the city, and in fact the country, running," Dr Jehangir told the ABC.
However, many of these workers have faced widespread abuses.
Human Rights Watch has long documented how the Middle East's kafala system — a sponsorship scheme which gives employers control over migrant workers' immigration and employment status — facilitates abuse and exploitation.
"It restricts job mobility, enables employers to routinely confiscate workers' passports, and punishes workers who leave their employers, including to escape abuse, with the risk of deportation and detention," HRW said on its website.

Human rights abuses of migrants in the Middle East have been widely documented. (AP: Kamran Jebreili)
In 2022, a company owned by Qatar's royal family was accused of enforcing some of the "worst conditions" for migrant workers constructing FIFA World Cup stadiums and hiding mistreatment from the football authority's inspectors.
And yet, the migrant workers who spoke with the ABC continued to reassure they were "happy" and "safe".
Much of it has to do with pressure they're facing from authorities not to share unauthorised information about Iran's attacks.
Regardless, Dr Jehangir said their choices were limited.
"For many workers, simply leaving during a crisis isn't an option," Dr Jehangir said.

"Travel costs money, visas are tied to employment, and families back home depend on their income."

Dr Jehangir says for many migrants in the UAE, their families back home depend on their income. (University of New South Wales: Ayesha Jehangir)

'Staying quiet pays their bills'​

For Indian woman Priya, whose name has also been changed, she has felt "terrified" for her dad who lives in Oman, where he's been for more than 25 years.
Priya's dad works in the medical industry. His role as an essential worker makes it difficult for him to leave.
Data from 2021 showed about 1.4 million people in Oman were migrants, with the majority coming from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The majority of the migrants in Oman come from India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. (Reuters: Christopher Pike)
"His presence there is critical and should something escalate, his medical services would be needed," Priya told the ABC.
From Sydney, she nervously speaks to her dad on the phone every night, both of them aware of the potential surveillance.

The Middle East war explainedCarousel​

Background

Are we using our emergency fuel reserves?​

Yes. The federal government will feed about a week's worth of petrol and diesel into the domestic market from stock it has been holding in case of an emergency. The reserves are stored in tanks all over the country at refineries and storage sites run by fuel companies.
Background

Will this stop fuel shortages?​

The government has urged people not to panic-buy, with drivers advised to get what they need but not more. Demand for fuel has doubled since the first strikes against Iran. The government has said oil and fuel are still arriving by ship into Australia.
Background

Has the government released dirty fuel into the market?​

The government has temporarily lowered Australia's fuel standard. For 60 days, petrol with a higher concentration of sulphur can be sold here. This means fuel from Ampol's Lytton refinery in Brisbane can be sold within Australia instead of being exported overseas to countries with lower fuel standards. The hope is this helps lower fuel prices.
Background

Will this fuel damage my car?​

If the eased fuel standards remain in place for only a short period, this change shouldn't do much harm to anyone's engine. The levels of sulphur in the petrol being diverted to the domestic market are the same as what they were as recently as last year, and that petrol will also be mixed in with cleaner blends.
Background

Why are fuel prices going up?​

Petrol and diesel are made from refined oil and the Middle East is a major supplier. Air strikes have targeted oil facilities in multiple countries, stopping work at those sites. Iran has targeted the Strait of Hormuz virtually stopping shipping through the vital route and blocking oil supply to the world. This disruption has pushed up the price of oil which in turn has pushed up the petrol price.
Background

How will it affect interest rates?​

Higher petrol prices increase transport costs of goods. That cost is passed on to consumers. When the cost of many goods and services increases, it is known as inflation. The rate of inflation is one factor when setting official interest rates. If the rate of inflation is considered too high, interest rates go up.
Background

Is it safe to fly?​

The federal government's Smart Traveller service has issued a red alert for travel to the Middle East with warnings to leave as soon as possible and register with the Australian government for assistance. It has also issued a yellow alert for travel globally as the war is causing delays and disruptions worldwide. If you plan to travel you can get the latest advice from smartraveller.gov.au.
Background

Will I get a refund for cancelled travel plans?​

The Smart Traveller website is advising people who have booked and paid for travel to get advice from their travel agent or the airline they have booked through. Cancelling your booking can impact your right to a refund and may not be covered by travel insurance. More information is available at smartraveller.gov.au.
Background

When did the war start?​

The US and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran on Saturday, February 28, after weeks of failed nuclear negotiations. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the strikes.
Background

Why did the US and Israel strike Iran?​

US President Donald Trump said it was to destroy Iran's nuclear missile capabilities. He then urged the Iranian people to prepare to overthrow their government. Iran has repeatedly said its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel attacked Iran "to remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime".
Background

Who is Iran attacking?​

Iran responded by attacking Israel as well as US military targets in neighbouring Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Attacks were also reported in Cyprus, Iraq and Jordan.
Background

Why is Israel striking Lebanon?​

The militant group Hezbollah is based in Lebanon. The group, which is supported by Iran, attacked Israel in retaliation for the killing of the Iranian supreme leader. In return, Israel has bombed Beirut in Lebanon. Lebanon's government has banned Hezbollah's military activities.
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"For many of these migrants, staying quiet pays their bills, feeds their families and puts their kids through school," she said.

"The world cares less about the expatriate population who built these places and kept them glitzy and glamorous."

She said there were only certain people in the community who were able to feel secure.
"You're only really 'safe' if you have money, influence and connections."

Job loss and deportation risks​

Criticising the UAE's government could risk one's job, or even immigration status.
After the war erupted, authorities announced that people who shared misinformation or even something that "results in inciting panic among people" could be prosecuted.
Only officially verified information is safe to post.

The Dubai Media Office said legal action would be taken against those who published or republished "misleading" or "outdated" videos and images.
For this reason, Amanthi believes "the whole story" is not being shown in media.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

'Worst Gulf Crisis For Migrants In 50 Years'​

By SHOBHA WARRIER
March 06, 2026 09:54 IST

'In India, there is this first generation migrant, say from a small village in UP. He didn't go to the Gulf to buy a big house but make the life of his family better.'
'He may have paid 1 lakh rupees to an agent to go to the Gulf. Imagine what will happen to him and his family if he has to come back. He and his family will become poor again.'
'He went to the Gulf to come out of poverty, but this war will make his family trapped in poverty once again.'

IMAGE: People gather as smoke rises at an industrial area in Doha, Qatar, March 1, 2026 after reported Iranian missile attacks. Photograph: Mohammed Salem/Reuters

Key Points​

• Nearly 10 million Indians -- including around 2 million Keralites -- live in the Gulf vulnerable to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
• India received over $135 billion in remittances last year, with Kerala alone getting around Rs 2 lakh crore.
• Kerala is heavily remittance-dependent,; the crisis could hit first-generation migrants from states like Uttar Pradesh or Rajasthan harder.

1980-1988. The eight year-long Iran-Iraq war.
1990-1991. Iraq attacking Kuwait.
2003. The United States attacked Iraq to capture Saddam Hussein.
These are some of the recent wars in the Middle East which had huge implications on the South Asian region.
Now comes the US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Middle East is in turmoil. So also South Asia.
Dr S Irudaya Rajan, an expert on migration, analyses how this war will affect the South Asian region, especially India.
Formerly with the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Dr Rajan is currently the Chair of the International Institute for Migration and Development and also the Chair of the KNOMAD (The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development) World Bank working group on internal migration and urbanisation.
"The stress a migrant goes through will have consequences on his health; his physical health, mental health and social health which you cannot measure, Dr Rajan tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

Out of the 10 million Indians in the Middle East, Keralites form a large number. So how is the US-Israel and Iran war going to affect Kerala society and economy?
Currently there are 2.2 million migrants from Kerala outside as per the Kerala Migration Survey, 2023. Out of that, 90% of them are in the Gulf.
So, you have close to 2 million Keralites in the Gulf.
It means 1 out of 5 of the 10 million Indians in the Gulf region, is a Malayalee.
The six countries; the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia accommodate 90% of Keralites.
I am of the opinion that you should not restrict the impact of the war on Kerala alone.
If you do so, you are underestimating the impact.
This war has an impact on not just India but the entire South Asia, that is, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Also, Indonesia and the Philippines in South East Asia.
When you take all these seven countries, you are talking about close to 15 million people.
You can describe this as the largest migration globally.
What I want to say is, not just Malayalees are dependent on the Gulf but people from South Asia and South East Asia.

IMAGE: Indian passengers reunite with their families as they arrive in New Delhi, March 4, 2026 from a flight via Dubai amid the international tensions in the Gulf. Photograph: Jitender Gupta/ANI Photo
But Kerala's economy depends heavily on petrol dollars...
You are right.
Last year India as a country received more than $135 billion as remittances from the Gulf.
If people are coming back from the Middle East due to the war, the remittances will come down.
So, it will affect not just Kerala. India as a country will have a problem.
I agree migration is more from some states in India, like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh.
But when you take Sri Lanka or Nepal, the war will have huge implications because many of the households in Sri Lanka and Nepal are dependent on remittances from the Gulf.
Of course, the Kerala economy is called the remittance economy.
But don't limit the story of the war or the crisis in the Middle East to Kerala.
Whatever impact the war will have on Kerala, it is applicable to all these countries.
It has to have a South Asia and South East Asia perspective.
I have been working on the Kerala Migration Survey data for the last 25 years.
Based on my experience, I can say whatever I say happens to Kerala families will happen to families in Pakistan, families in Indonesia and families in Sri Lanka.

'When the money does not come, there will be no food in the house'​

IMAGE: Planes parked at Terminal 3 at the Dubai international airport after US and Israeli attacks on Iran, March 2, 2026. Photograph: Raghed Waked/Reuters
In what way do you think the war will affect the people of South Asia and South East Asia?
I categorise the impact into four.
One: The impact on the migrants.
A war makes the migrants highly stressed. Till now, the migrants looked at the Gulf as a safe place. Now that is being questioned.
He may stay back despite the stress to make some money. He may have taken a loan in his country. Or, he may be constructing a house.
The stress he goes through will have consequences on his health; his physical health, mental health and social health which you cannot measure.
Two: The second impact will be on his family, that is, his parents, spouse and children.
He may be a nurse or a housemaid or a plumber or a construction worker but he has a family back at home.
The families are not migrants, they are located in the countries of origin.
And when they hear about the stories of destruction, they are under stress.
Three: The third impact will be on the society they live. The community.
The war happened on the 28th of February. Imagine how many households were expecting remittance from the Gulf on the 2nd of March after the person gets his salary on the 1st.
If the salary is delayed, everything back at home gets stalled -- from paying the loan instalment to the construction of the house to children's school fees to parents' hospital visit.
The bypass surgery or the cataract surgery scheduled for this week has to be postponed because the money has not come.



This way, a whole lot of things will affect not just the family, but the whole community.
If he has to come back, he is perceived as a return migrant who has returned in distress.
Four: The impact on the economy. For example, Kerala alone last year received Rs 200,000 crores as remittance according to the Kerala Migration Survey. I feel this is an underestimated figure.
Assume the remittance is reduced by Rs 50,000 crore, and how it will impact the state's economy.
When the remittance stops, the entire economy is in trouble.

IMAGE: A display board at the Noi Bai international airport in Hanoi, Vietnam, March 2, 2026. Photograph: Thinh Nguyen/Reuters
Do you think it will have an even more impact on the economy of Sri Lanka or even Pakistan?
The consequence of the war will be very bad for Sri Lanka as the country is dependent heavily on the remittance from the Gulf after the economic crisis they had earlier.
You can expect even starvation in some of the localities where the migrants are dependent on remittances. When the money does not come, there will be no food in the house.
In India itself, there is this first generation migrant, say from a small village in Uttar Pradesh. He didn't go to the Gulf to buy a big house but make the life of his family better.
On the other hand, migration from Kerala has been happening for the last 60 years. So for that person from Kerala, the impact will be less.
On the other hand, the first generation migrant from UP might have paid 1 lakh rupees to an agent to go to the Gulf. Imagine what will happen to him and his family if he has to come back. He and his family will become poor again. He went to the Gulf to come out of poverty, but this war will make his family trapped in poverty once again.
This is the difference between Kerala and a state like UP or Rajasthan as Kerala has a long migration history to the Gulf.
Earlier the migration was happening mainly from Kerala, but now, it is spreading to many other states too.
Just look at the number of Etihad flights from India. It is flying from 14 cities in the country. Compare this to the four cities in Kerala from where flights are going to the Middle East: Trivandrum, Kochi, Kannur and Calicut.

'This crisis is worse than the Covid crisis'​

IMAGE: Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. Photograph: Raghed Waked/Reuters
Compared to the earlier wars like the Iran-Iraq War or the Gulf War, will this have more impact as there are more Indians in the Middle East now?
We have seen quite a few wars in the region earlier.
The earlier wars were between two countries, like between Iran and Iraq or Iraq and Kuwait.
Even the Russia-Ukraine war is also between those two countries.
The earlier wars did not go beyond the two countries in war. The maximum it had gone was to the region.
It did not expand to many countries which is what is happening now.
Even the 2008 economic crisis when it affected Dubai badly, it had no impact on the UAE. There was business as usual there.
I would say, this crisis is worse than the Covid crisis.
The current crisis in the Gulf is the worst crises migrants have faced in the last 50 years.

IMAGE: Supplies are displayed on shelves at a supermarket in Dubai, March 3, 2026. Photograph: Rula Rouhana/Reuters
Why do you think so?
This kind of psychological fear was never created in the Gulf before.
The image of the Gulf as a safe haven is being questioned now.
For example, yesterday the Emirates flight from Chennai to Dubai had only 35 people in it.
Everything depends on how long the crisis continues to know the long term implication.
The current crisis will have short term and long term implications.
If the crisis continues for 20 days, the scenario will be different.
So, everything depends on how long the crisis will continue. And nobody knows the answer.
Anyway, the damage has been done.
But we have been talking from the perspective of migrants but it will also have implication on the people who never migrated.

'Impact of the crisis goes beyond migrants'​

I read a report that export of pineapple, curry leaves, flowers, etc from Karipur airport to this Middle East during the Ramadan period has been stalled, and it will have a huge impact on the small farmers and businesses...
That's why I said the impact of the crisis goes beyond migrants.
The economy of is not just a migrants economy.
When the flights are not going, airport doesn't function. Everyone connected to the aviation industry will be affected.
Then, there is construction, trade, jewellery, sea food, vegetables... the list is endless.

IMAGE: Dr Irudaya Rajan
The impact of the Middle East crisis will be on every sector in the economy of the entire South Asia and South East Asia.
We are only talking about the economy of these countries.
What about the Gulf region itself?
The economy of the Gulf is managed by migrants. And when the migrants go back, the economy of the Middle East is dead.
While their economy is dependent on migrants, our economy depends on their money.
What I see is, when the war ends, there will be a very huge migration to the Gulf.
If there are 10 million migrants from India to the Gulf now, it will go up to 15 million.
While they need our labour, we need their money.
And they need migrants to bring their economy back on track, and rebuild everything.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The 18th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran​

Emergency crews search for people trapped in rubble following a strike on a residential building in Tehran, Iran, on March 16, 2026.
Israel said that it killed Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, in a strike on Tehran, demonstrating Israel’s continued determination to pursue senior figures in the Iranian regime, even those seen as pragmatists like Larijani. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is berating American allies for their reluctance to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed after the United States and Israel attacked it.
Here’s what to know on day 18.

What are the main headlines?​

• Israel “eliminates” Larijani: Israel said it killed Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in a Monday night strike on Tehran. Iran has not yet commented. Larijani had emerged as one of the most prominent figures in Iran in recent months, helping to suppress the huge protests that swept the country in January. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military will “continue hunting” Iran’s leadership, suggesting divergence between the war aims of the US and Israel.
• Basij leader killed: Soon after Larijani’s death was announced, the Israeli military said that it had killed Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force. The Basij operates like a police force for the regime’s military, and it also helped suppress protests earlier this year. The Israeli military said his death marked a “significant blow to the regime’s security command-and-control structures.”
• Targeting Baghdad: The US Embassy and a hotel in Baghdad were targeted by drones early Tuesday, with video appearing to show air defences engaging a projectile near the embassy. The Majnoon oil field in southern Iraq also came under attack, the spokesperson for the commander-in-chief of Iraq’s armed forces said.
• UAE attacks: The United Arab Emirates temporarily closed its airspace after two separate fires broke out at the Fujairah oil zone and the Shah gas field after drone strikes at both locations. A tanker near Fujairah port was also struck by an “unknown projectile” late Monday—the 21st vessel to report an incident around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman since the war began, according to the UK’s maritime agency. Later on Tuesday, one person was killed by falling debris from an intercepted missile in Abu Dhabi.
• US troops: A US Navy warship believed to be carrying thousands of Marines and sailors to the Middle East is nearing the Malacca Strait as it makes its way to the region, maritime tracking data showed Tuesday. Officials told CNN the unit was being sent to the Middle East, without revealing exactly where it would be deployed or what it would be used for.

What’s the latest on diplomacy?​

• Diplomacy stalled: Iranian officials have reached out to Trump’s Middle East envoy, trying to reopen a diplomatic channel, but Trump said he didn’t want to negotiate now, two senior White House officials told CNN. Part of the reason is because Trump’s administration is not confident that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, “is actually in charge,” one of the officials said. Iran’s foreign minister denied having any contact with the president’s envoy in recent days, as the White House officials claim.
• “Not NATO’s war”: EU foreign ministers decided against expanding their naval operations around the Strait of Hormuz, even as Trump criticized allies who rebuffed his demands for assistance in reopening the critical waterway. He said he will “soon” announce countries that have agreed to help, while acknowledging many have rejected his overtures. On Monday, a spokesperson for the German chancellor said: “It is not NATO’s war.”
• Patience runs thin: Some American, European and Asian diplomats are growing increasingly frustrated with the Trump administration’s refusal to use traditional diplomatic channels. “If there was more diplomatic engagement on the US side, they might be able to get a more positive outcome,” said one European diplomat.

What’s happening on the ground?​

People play the game "sheshbesh" in an underground bomb shelter after sirens warned of an incoming Iranian missile in Tel Aviv, Israel, on March 16, 2026.
Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images

• Trading strikes: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah continued exchanging attacks on Monday. Four were wounded in northern Israel after Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets and drones. Israel said it began a wave of strikes on the Iranian capital Tehran, while the Iranian Red Crescent said early Tuesday that relief workers are trying to reach a Tehran resident trapped under rubble. And Israeli airstrikes targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold.
• Alarm over Lebanon: The leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they were “gravely concerned” about growing violence in Lebanon after Israel said earlier it is expanding “limited” ground operations there. The five governments warned that Israel’s planned invasion “must be averted.” More than 1 million people in Lebanon have been internally displaced and at least 850 people killed since the latest conflict began, according to Lebanese authorities.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

European leaders reject military involvement in Strait of Hormuz​

Hormuz is a crucial passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which around a fifth of global oil production flows and has become a key focal point of the Iran war.​

With Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the south, the Strait is just 30 miles wide at its narrowest point. Top oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) producers include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE. export the majority of their cargo through the Strait on tanker vessels. “It's a critical node in the global economy for all sorts of commodities, energy and otherwise,” says Jim Krane, a fellow for energy studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The Strait also transits around 45% of global sulfur exports, which is needed in the production of fertilizer and the refining of metals, including copper, cobalt, and nickel.
Under the direction of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the Strait of Hormuz is being used as “leverage” in Iran’s retaliation against the U.S. and, by extension, the rest of the world. In his first statement since succeeding his father, Khamenei last week vowed to keep blocking the Strait, which has been brought to a virtual standstill, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to bring “death, fire, and fury” upon Iran if it continues to impede the flow of oil.
The Strait’s importance for global trade, especially for crucial resources, makes it a key geopolitical bargaining chip for Iran amid the ongoing conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz does not officially fall under Iran’s control. All vessels that wish to journey the waterway should be able to do so. But Iran has a unique capability, due to its physical proximity, to exert significant influence over the passage and effectively shut it down.
Along the Strait and nearby, there are oil terminals belonging to Iran and the UAE. The transit of that oil is dependent on the Strait being free to navigate.
Iran’s military build-up in the region also allows the regime to exert significant authority over the Strait, and what can ultimately pass through.

“Iran has built up, in the last several decades, a very large number of area denial systems,” says Eisenstadt, citing “anti-ship cruise missiles, mines, submarines, surface to air missiles, and drones” as examples.
Amid reports that Iran has begun laying sea mines in the region—something the country’s officials have denied—attention has turned to how to best destabilize such threats. The U.K. said it has already deployed “autonomous mine hunting systems” in the region.
Should Iranian mines be present in the Strait, this would pose another major obstacle.
“De-mining is really laborious, painstaking work. It’s much easier to lay some mines than it is to get rid of them,” says Krane.
And it's not only upstream production and exports being disrupted, as numerous oil refineries and facilities have closed due to strikes or fear of potential attacks.

A smoke plume rises following a drone strike sparking a fuel tank fire nearby Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates on March 16, 2026. AFP—Getty Images

How has the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz impacted the price of oil? ​

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) oil report, Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. At present, more than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets.
As a result, since the conflict began on Feb. 28, the price of crude oil has jumped to above $100 per barrel on several occasions, up from around $67 before the first U.S.-Israeli strikes.
The price of crude oil hit as high as $98 per barrel on Tuesday, slightly down from the figures reached in days prior, but still alarming for consumers and markets worldwide.
Joel Han{censored}, an energy analyst at investment firm Natixis CIB, says that oil price rises are already being felt at gas stations, particularly in the U.S.
“Within Europe, pump prices have increased, but not the same proportional magnitude as U.S. gasoline prices,” he says
And the increase in the cost of fuel is also being passed on to the consumers.

“We've had several airlines announce that they're ramping fares up to pass on the additional cost of jet fuel,” says Han{censored}.
These far-reaching impacts largely boil down to both the lack of alternative export avenues and insurance concerns for vessels attempting to journey the Strait.
“The key point when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz is that there is really no other exit point for the magnitude of energy flow,” says Han{censored}. “The straight of Hormuz is a true choke point in the sense that you are seeing production being shut in, because there isn't really an alternative exit route.”
In short, even if journeys can be adjusted, alternative routes simply can’t handle the same volume of oil.
So far as insurance concerns, many companies have dropped war risk protections amid the conflict and the ongoing supply disruptions means that “oil is actually being lost from the market.” Oil storages in the Gulf region are approaching capacity, with production halting as a result.

​

Pushback comes as US President Donald Trump says NATO allies should help secure key waterways amid soaring oil prices.
Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, on March 11, 2026 [File: Stringer/Reuters] Reuters
16 Mar 202616 Mar 2026
European leaders have rejected demands by United States President Donald Trump ⁠to help ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Joining a European Union gathering in Brussels on Monday to discuss skyrocketing oil prices during the US-Israel war on Iran, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Berlin had no intention of joining military operations during the conflict. France, Great Britain, and Spain have also rejected this demand, leaving Trump aloof and causing fissures in NATO.

“We need more clarity here,” Wadephul told reporters ahead of the meeting. “We expect the US and Israel to inform us, to include us in what they’re doing there, and to tell us if these goals are achieved.”​

“Once we have a clear picture of that, we believe we need to move into the next phase, namely, defining a security architecture for this entire region, together with the neighbouring states,” he said.
Meanwhile, speaking from Berlin, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that while there would be “no military participation” from his country, it was prepared to support diplomatic efforts “to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”.
“This is not our war. We have ⁠not started it,” said Pistorius. “What does … Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful ⁠US Navy cannot do?”
Also speaking from Berlin, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spokesman said the conflict has “nothing to do with NATO”. Stefan Kornelius told reporters NATO was “an alliance for the defence of territory," adding that “the mandate to deploy NATO is lacking." ”.

Germany’s position was echoed by fellow NATO member the United Kingdom. Speaking from London about joining any mission in the Strait of Hormuz, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Let me be clear: that won’t be, and it’s never been envisioned to be, a NATO mission.”
Starmer stressed the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war." However, he said the UK was discussing with the US and allies in Europe and the Gulf the possibility of using its mine-hunting drones already in the region.

UN warns 3 million Iranians displaced by Israeli and US attacks​

Scepticism​

A number of EU countries joined Germany in reacting with skepticism to Trump’s call on Sunday for a naval collaboration to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments transit. The key Gulf waterway has essentially been shuttered as a result of the war, which has seen the US and Israel launch deadly attacks across Iran since February 28. Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones across the wider Middle East, roiling global energy markets.

Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told the country’s ANP news agency that it would be “very difficult to launch a successful mission there in the short term." ”.
Lithuania and Estonia said NATO countries should consider a US request for help but cautioned over the need for greater clarity around various aspects of any potential mission.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna also said that US allies in Europe want to understand Trump’s “strategic goals." “What will be the plan?” he asked.
⁠Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said ⁠that Greece ⁠would not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz.
Italian Foreign ⁠Minister Antonio ⁠Tajani said Italy was not involved in any naval missions that could be ‌extended to the area.
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, however, that Europe should keep an open mind ⁠on helping to ensure freedom of navigation in the strait even if the continent did not support the ⁠US-Israeli decision to go to war with Iran.
“We must face the world as it is, not as we want it to be,” Rasmussen said, adding that the EU must decide on a plan “with a view towards de-escalation." ”.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski invited the Trump administration to go through the proper channels.
“If there is a request via NATO, we will, of course, out of respect and sympathy for our American allies, consider it very carefully,” he said.
Sikorski made a reference to Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, which allies can invoke if they believe their territory or security is under threat.
EU feels Trump’s pressure
On Monday, Trump appeared to criticize countries reluctant to help unblock the waterway.
“Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me,” he said at an event at the White House.
Trump expressed surprise at the UK’s reluctance, alluding to US spending “on NATO and all of these things to protect” the US’s “oldest ally."
He said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be announcing the names of the countries willing to aid the US.
Prior to the meeting with EU foreign ministers in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas had suggested that extending the bloc’s Aspides mission was the “fastest” way for it to boost security in the Strait of Hormuz.
After the gathering, she said there had been “no appetite” for extending the mission, which was established in 2024 to protect ships from attacks by Yemen’s Houthis in the Red Sea.
“Nobody wants to go actively in this war,” she said.
Earlier Kallas had said the strait’s closure, which has sent oil prices to more than $100 a barrel, was benefitting Russia's war on Ukraine, which is largely funded by Moscow’s energy revenues.
Reporting from Brussels, Al Jazeera’s Step Vaessen said what was clear is that European leaders are “increasingly feeling the pressure from Trump to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz."
“There is very little appetite [on the part of EU leaders] for joining the war, especially because they feel left out of the loop,” Vaessen said. “They will be discussing a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but that doesn’t necessarily mean sending warships.”
Trump said he had spoken to French President Emmanuel Macron, who he said was willing to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Though Macron has denied agreeing to join in the Hermuz.
France had earlier suggested the EU could expand the Aspides mission, which currently has an Italian and a Greek ship under its direct command and may also call upon a French ship and another Italian vessel for support.

The U.S. gets very little oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Why are gas prices still going up?​

Despite the U.S. being a net export of petroleum products, gas prices across the country have been hit with sharp increases since the start of the conflict, sitting at around $3.84 per gallon nationally on Wednesday, up from roughly $2.9 a month ago.
Gasoline prices are determined by the price of different petroleum products, including crude oil, which accounts for just under 50% of the price of gasoline.
While the U.S. is the top producer of crude worldwide, its price is set based on global supply and demand.
This means that disruptions across the globe will impact the cost of crude oil, which has spiked significantly since the Iran conflict began, thus having a knock-on effect and increasing the price of U.S. gasoline at the pump, too.

A man walking along the seafront as commercial vessels anchor offshore near Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, on March 2, 2026. Giuseppe Cacace—Getty Images

How has Trump responded to the Strait of Hormuz coming to a standstill?​

The President initially brushed off concerns regarding the rise in oil prices, referring to it as a “very small price to pay.”
But he has since warned Iran that it will be hit “twenty times harder” than it already has if the country continues to block the flow of oil.
The U.S. launched overnight attacks on Friday targeting Kharag Island, the critical hub of Iran’s oil exports. Trump framed the move as an attempt to pressure Iranian officials to end the blockade of the Strait.
“Our weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the world has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on the Island,” said Trump, adding a warning that he may do so, should Iran continue to target vessels.

In an attempt to secure the Strait, Trump also called on world leaders to provide assistance by sending warships to the region. He has since accused NATO allies of making a “very foolish mistake” after several countries resisted his call to take action.
In a further attempt to aid the flow of oil, the White House announced Wednesday that Trump has signed a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, temporarily permitting foreign-flagged vessels transporting oil and gas to travel between U.S. ports. The move will "allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely," according to press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
The Jones Act, which refers to Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, requires that vessels transporting cargo between one U.S. port to another must be U.S.-built, as well as owned and crewed by U.S. citizens, aiming to serve as protection for domestic merchants.
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Ahead of signing the waiver, the President remarked upon the Strait and the international reliance on it.
“I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian terror state, and let the countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called Strait?” he said . “That would get some of our non-responsive ‘allies’ in gear, and fast."
Elsewhere on the international front, the IEA announced last week that its 32 member countries, the U.S. among them, have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves.

Why might Trump find it hard to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?​

Despite the U.S. claiming Iranian military capabilities, both on land and at sea, have been “destroyed,” Iran is proving it can still effectively halt the Strait.
“It's just too easy to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz… the simplicity of disrupting the Strait is turning out to be almost like a nuclear deterrent from Iran,” says Krane.
“This is really what we always refer to as [Iran’s] nuclear option in a figurative sense. Before, it wasn't really a usable option, because they are also vulnerable [if the Strait is disrupted],” adds Eisenstadt.
“The U.S. could easily totally destroy [Iran’s] oil production capability,” he continues, but that threat might not work. “Iran could say ‘if we can't export oil, nobody does.”

Has Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz before?​

Iran has threatened to close and restrict the Strait on numerous occasions.
During the Iran-Iraq conflict in the 1980s, the “Tanker War” saw both Iran and Iraq launch hundreds of attacks against oil tankers and vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
The attacks in the Tanker War were much worse, experts note, in terms of the number of vessels struck and destroyed.
“You had hundreds of ships that were hit,” says Krane. “But the impact on the global economy was not nearly as dire. Current attacks are having a much larger impact on oil markets in the global economy with much less hostile action by Iran.”

Attacks in the 1980s notably did not bring passage through the Strait to a halt, adds Eisenstadt, highlighting the “intermittent” nature of the strikes back then.

Years later, in 2011, Iran’s then-Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi declared that oil would not pass through the waters if Western sanctions against Iran were widened. The sanctions were issued as a result of concerns over Iran's nuclear capabilities.
The same issue ignited during last year’s conflict, dubbed the “12-day war,” which ultimately saw the U.S join Israel in launching strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities.
During that conflict, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait—a largely symbolic gesture, given that it doesn’t have official authority over the passage.
The move, however, did cause jitters in the markets, with the price of crude oil futures jumping to $80 per barrel in the immediate aftermath of the vote—somewhat serving as a warning sign for the economic and trade turmoil that was yet to come.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said NATO faced a “very bad” future if his proposal for a military operation in the strait received no response or a negative one.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Iran confirms killing of intelligence minister Khatib in Israeli strike​

Source: ANI
March 19, 2026 02:31 IST

The development comes after the deaths of senior figures including Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani in earlier strikes.

IMAGE: An Iranian missile with cluster munitions flies over the city in Jerusalem on March 18, 2026. Photograph: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

Key Points​

• Iran fired missiles towards Israel, marking a major escalation in the ongoing conflict.
• Iran confirmed the killing of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, the third top official killed in two days.
• Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s gas infrastructure; Tehran threatened retaliation against 'enemy infrastructure.'
• Qatar condemned attacks on energy facilities and warned of wider regional instability.
• Israel signaled continued targeting of senior Iranian leadership, raising fears of further escalation.

The West Asia conflict escalated sharply as Iran launched missiles towards Israel, while Tehran confirmed the killing of its intelligence minister in Israeli strikes, marking the third assassination of a senior Iranian official in two days.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib was killed in an overnight Israeli attack.
The development comes after the deaths of senior figures, including Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani, in earlier strikes.
Pezeshkian condemned the 'cowardly assassination of my dear colleagues,' saying they 'left us heartbroken.'
In a post on X, he added that their 'path will continue stronger than before,' as per Al Jazeera.
Who was Esmail Khatib
Al Jazeera's Nida Ibrahim, reporting from the occupied West Bank, said Israeli military analysts regarded Khatib as a trusted figure close to Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
"According to Israeli sources, they said they have been gathering intelligence that allowed them in the past 24 hours to declare the deaths of three senior Iranian officials," Ibrahim said, according to Al Jazeera.
Katz also announced that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had given the Israeli military standing authorization to eliminate other senior Iranian officials in their sights without case-by-case approval.
"This is seen as another success from the Israeli perspective in targeting the Iranian leadership," she said, Al Jazeera reported.
Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera's Mohamed Vall said, "In terms of his credentials, he 'ticked every box' in Iran, having graduated from the influential seminary in Qom and previously studied under the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei."
"So he was really one of the top clerics, and he even has the title Proof of Islam, one of the highest titles in the country. He is really well placed, religiously and ideologically, and with decades of experience in the circles of intelligence, particularly civilian intelligence," Vall added.
"He's a man whose killing, no doubt about it, will cause a dent to the remaining structure of the regime, the government. So that is what the Israelis are counting on," he concluded.

US offers reward for info on Mojtaba Khamenei​

As per Al Jazeera, the US Department of State offered a $10m reward on Friday for information about Iran's new supreme leader and other top officials, including Khatib.
A funeral ceremony for Larijani and Soleimani was held in Tehran on Wednesday, according to Press TV, as officials and mourners gathered to honour the two figures, Al Jazeera reported.
Larijani had been one of Iran's most influential political operators, having previously led its nuclear negotiations with the West and served as speaker of parliament.
In an interview with Al Jazeera aired after the killing of Larijani was confirmed by Tehran on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the United States and Israel had yet to realise that Iran's government does not rely on a single individual.

Iran fires missiles towards Israel​

Amid the rising tensions, Israel reported that missiles were fired from Iran towards its territory.
In response to earlier strikes on its energy infrastructure, Iran warned it would target 'enemy infrastructure,' while its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have hit multiple targets in Tel Aviv.

Israeli jets hit an Iranian gas facility​

Reports also said Israeli fighter jets struck a gas facility in Iran's Bushehr province linked to the South Pars field.
A fire at the facility was later brought under control without casualties, Iranian authorities said.
Qatar condemned the targeting of gas infrastructure and cautioned against further escalation, even as Iran issued evacuation warnings for areas near oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Why Did Israel Kill Ali Larijani?​

March 18, 2026 14:34 IST
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower.

IMAGE: Ali Larijani, a key Iranian power broker and negotiator, was killed on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, removing a critical diplomatic backchannel. Photograph: Reuters

Ali Larijani wrote his doctoral thesis on Immanuel Kant. He had been an IRGC commander, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, speaker of parliament for a decade, and in the weeks since the war began, the de facto leader of a country whose supreme leader had been killed on the first day of battle.

Key Points​

• Ali Larijani played a central role in building consensus across factions and enabling potential negotiations to end the war.
• Analysts suggest his killing may have been deliberate to prevent a negotiated exit and prolong the conflict.
• His absence strengthens hardliners in Iran, reducing chances of compromise and narrowing diplomatic pathways.

Larijani was, by any measure, the Islamic Republic's most complete political animal. The only position missing from his resume, as one analyst noted, was the presidency itself. He was also, it now appears, the last Iranian leader with whom a deal aimed at a quick end to the war was possible. Israel killed him overnight. His son died alongside him. Iran confirmed it on Tuesday. The IRGC Aerospace Force commander announced a 'rapid strike' in retaliation within hours: 'Tonight, the enemy's sky will become more spectacular for you.' The significance of this killing is not primarily military. Larijani was not running missile batteries. What he was running, quietly, carefully, across decades of accumulated credibility, was the possibility of an exit. As Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute writes, Larijani was not so much a decision-maker as a consensus-maker: The one figure who could bring Iran's fractious factions to a negotiating table and make an agreement stick. He had been in quiet contact with senior Trump administration officials as recently as December, working to prevent the war. He was the back channel.​

IMAGE: Germany's then foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, then French foreign minister Philippe Douste-Blazy, Ali Larijani, then EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and then British foreign office political director John Sawers pose for photographers in Vienna, Austria March 3, 2006. Photograph: Herwig Prammer/File Photo/Reuters
CNN reports that as recently as September last year, he was the US and Israel's preferred transitional candidate for post-war Iran.
One day after the war broke out, he hardened his public posture. 'We will burn their hearts,' he wrote on social media. 'We will make the Zionist criminals and the shameless Americans regret their actions.'
From that day on, vowing that Iran would 'deliver an unforgettable lesson' to the aggressors, he took a front seat in the war's political management, walked through crowds in Tehran at the Al-Quds Day rally last Friday in a visible act of defiance.
The question that hangs over this killing is the one Parsi asks directly: Was this deliberate? Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do.​

Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it.
Without him, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower.

Was Killing Strategically Deliberate?​

IMAGE: Iran's former intelligence minister Ali Younesi, left, Ali Larijani and former chief nuclear negotiator and later president Hassan Rouhani, right, attend a conference on Iran's nuclear policies in Tehran, April 25, 2006. Photograph: Raheb Homavandi/File Photo/Reuters
What or who replaces him? We have seen this pattern each time a moderate or pragmatist has been removed from the Iranian system: A younger, more hardline leader emerges; one who has no institutional memory of compromise and no incentive to seek one. Taeb, Vahidi, Jafari, Ghalibaf constitute an inner core of the hardest of the hardliners. Larijani was the counterweight. He is gone now.​

IMAGE: Then Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani, left, with Grand Ayatollah Sheikh Bashir Hussain Najafi in Najaf, Iraq, December 23, 2014. Photograph: Alaa Al-Marjani/Reuters

Hardliners Rise After Larijani​

President Masoud Pezeshkian, another moderate who has been largely sidelined since the war began, is simply not of sufficient stature to build the coalition an Iranian off-ramp would require. Wars end when both sides can find a face-saving path out. Israel has just killed the man who knew where that path was.
ON LARIJANI: FURTHER READING
Trita Parsi writes the essential piece on Larijani. Parsi, one of the most clear-eyed analysts of US-Iran relations, lays out three possible Israeli motivations for the killing, and argues that the most consequential is the deliberate elimination of Trump's off-ramps. 'The Israelis have fought so hard to get the United States to go into a full-scale war with Iran for more than 20 years. It is in their interest to prolong this war as long as they can.'
CNN's analysis is good on who Larijani actually was inside the system: A 'true insider who spent decades at the centre, which gave him credibility across different parts of the elite.'
The revelation that he was Washington and Israel's own preferred transitional candidate as recently as September 2025 gives this killing an almost Shakespearean irony. In its profile, Al Jazeera provides the biographical backstory.
The Larijanis were so embedded in the revolutionary establishment that in 2009, Time used the phrase the 'Kennedys of Iran' Loss, and the deliberateness of targeting him, clearer. [Al Jazeera (external link)]
The National frames Larijani as the power behind the throne who became the throne itself, and captures the essential contradiction of his character: the philosopher who was also an enforcer.
Haaretz has a character study of Larijani that explores his intellectual life, which most reportage tends to ignore (outside of pointing out that he wrote his PhD thesis on Kant. Haaretz suggests that Larijani's philosophical training shaped his strategic training.
IranWire's piece is more pointed, and politically sharper, casting Larijani as a figure engineered for times of crisis.
Unlike other pieces, this one frames him as an outcome of regime design. [The National (external link)]
A Reuters piece tracks Larijani's pragmatism within Iran's hardline structure, and shows how he bridges clerical authority, military power, and diplomacy.
It is also good on his dual reputation: abroad, he is seen as the pragmatic negotiator and within Iran, as the suppressor. [Reuters (external link)]
In a more analytic, structural essay, Political Society argues that the Iranian regime cultivates shadow figures for times of crisis and thus uses him as a case study in institutional resilience. [Political Society (external link)]
In more immediate obituaries, the ones worth reading are from Reuters, which frames him as the ultimate backroom powerbroker, and The Guardian, which suggests that his loss could well prove to be more destabilising than that of Ali Khamenei. [Reuters (external link), Guardian (external link)]
The most practical question in the aftermath of Larijani's killing comes from Bloomberg.
Golnar Motivali asks, who is left in Tehran that Washington can actually talk to?
The answer, in this short and unsentimental piece, is not reassuring. [Bloomberg, paywalled (external link)] Related, an NYT news analysis asks whether Israel's targeted assassinations of key Iranian leaders will work. 'Decapitation has its limits' is the core of this piece. [New York Times (external link), paywalled]

IMAGE: A worker cooks food on an electric stove, reportedly due to a commercial LPG cylinder shortage, in Hyderabad, March 13, 2026. Photograph: Video Grab/ANI Photo​

India Feels War Shockwaves​

THE RIPPLE
While diplomats and analysts in Washington and Tel Aviv p{censored} the strategic implications of Larijani's killing, in Kolkata's Shyambazar neighborhood a sweet shop manager named Netai Dholey is calculating how many days of gas he has left. The answer is, two.
After that, he says, he will shut shop and go back to his village.
CarbonCopy has done something this week that most English-language war coverage has not: sent reporters to the Malur industrial area outside Bengaluru, to Howrah and Kolkata, to Delhi's Amar Colony and Jaipur's Vishwakarma Industrial Area, to ask what Operation Epic Fury actually costs at street level in India.
The portrait that emerges is of an economy being stressed from multiple directions simultaneously, and of an already fragile country walking into this quagmire.​

India gets roughly 85 per cent of its LPG, 55 per cent of its crude, and 60 per cent of its LNG from the Persian Gulf.
When the Strait of Hormuz becomes a war zone, those numbers become concrete: They are the gas cylinder that a street food vendor in Amar Colony needs to open tomorrow morning, the LPG that an autorickshaw driver in Bangur has been queuing four hours a day to obtain and paying Rs 4,500 for a cylinder that cost Rs 1,500 a month ago.
The Indian government, in the first week of the conflict, diverted LPG supplies from commercial users to households.
The logic was defensible. Both politically and otherwise. Equally, the consequences were immediate.
Eateries, sweet shops, auto drivers, the base of India's informal economy, found themselves scrambling.

IMAGE: People wait in a long queue to refill their LPG cylinders outside a gas agency in Ranchi, March 17, 2006. Photograph: ANI Photo
Black markets emerged within days. In Howrah, a gas dealer confirms the going rate is Rs 4,500 a cylinder.
In Delhi, the manufacturing federation reports that factories that once ran all day now struggle to run twelve hours.
In Jaipur, an industry association representing 5,000 units says its members have stopped accepting new orders.
Plastic granules, petrochemicals, inputs for soaps and detergents: the supply chains are tightening across sectors that most people do not think of as energy-dependent at all.
The CarbonCopy piece ends on a note that deserves to be read slowly: Families, hostels and eateries have begun switching to firewood after just two weeks.
If the conflict continues, India's already-stressed forests enter what the reporters call 'a perilous new era'.
This is what it looks like when a war in West Asia lands in an economy that never finished recovering from demonetisation, GST disruption, and Covid, one after another, each eating into working capital that was never fully rebuilt.
This is not India's war, but its costs are arriving in India's kitchens, workshops, and auto queues, one cylinder at a time.
If Carbon Copy captures the first tremors inside the kitchen, the rest of the reporting over the past day suggests how quickly those tremors are travelling outward into systems, sectors, and livelihoods that are less visible, but no less vulnerable.
A Reuters piece sketches the underlying architecture of the crisis.
Tankers are delayed, supplies are tightening, and the state has moved into a familiar mode of triage: shield households, squeeze industrial users.
What sits beneath this is a structural fragility: India's overwhelming dependence on LPG flows through a narrow geopolitical corridor, with little in the way of strategic reserves.
The disruption, in other words, is baked into the system. [Reuters (external link)]

IMAGE: A view of shutdown at a ceramic tiles manufacturing factory in Morbi, Gujarat, March 5, 2026. Photograph: Amit Dave/Reuters
From there, the story fragments into a series of localised shocks.
The Times of India reports that in Kerala, a small but telling signal is beginning to manifest.
Many hotels, including five-stars, have suspended their lunch and dinner buffets and drastically cut down on the breakfast buffet. [Times of India (external link)]
A companion piece talks of how staples like dosas, pooris and rotis are disappearing from menus across India. [Economic Times (external link)]
In parts of Karnataka, the crisis is pushing into the domain of welfare.
From Koppal comes a report that the midday meal scheme has been disrupted for 5,000 children, that medical college kitchens have been shut, and restaurants are switching to firewood for cooking. [Times of India (external link)].
ToI also has a story that reminds us that the kitchen is also an economic node, and that its disruptions can cascade into employment.
Restaurant staff are facing salary cuts and layoffs, the report says. [Times of India (external link)]
The Economic Times report says that the fuel shortage is mutating into a supply-chain problem.
Stresses are building in sectors far removed from cooking: Air-conditioners, plastics, manufacturing inputs. And this is happening just as India heads toward peak summer demand, in an El Nino year. [Economic Times (external link)]
And at the macro level, there are signs that a wider drag on the economy is beginning to manifest, with inflationary pressures not far behind. [Economic Times (external link)]
Taken together, says Businessworld, these fragments resolve into a pattern.
The crisis is moving along predictable lines: from chokepoint to fuel, from fuel to kitchen, from kitchen to labour, and from there into industry and the wider economy.
What makes this moment distinct is the speed of that transmission.
What would once have taken weeks is now visible within days. [Businessworld (external link)]
And thus the ramifications expand, through the kitchen into the networks that sustain it, and the systems that depends on it.

IMAGE: Joe Kent, Trump's director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned on Tuesday, Maarch 17, 2026, over the Iran war. Photograph: Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo/Reuters
From inside Trump's coalition:
Joe Kent, Trump's director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned this week over the Iran war, becoming the first senior administration figure to do so.
The resignation has cracked open a fissure in the MAGA movement.
Candace Owens and Megyn Kelly, both of whom have broken with Trump on other issues, posted publicly in support of Kent.
Joe Rogan, who endorsed Trump in 2024 and says he still texts with him occasionally, called the war 'crazy', 'insane', and said Americans feel 'betrayed'.
Trump, Rogan said, 'ran on no more wars; end these stupid, senseless wars'.
The White House's response has been to call Kent's resignation 'a good thing'.
That is the sound of an administration that has not yet felt enough political pain to change course but is beginning to hear the rumblings. Here are some essential reads:
Kent's resignation letter is embedded within this NYT piece, and is worth reading in full. [New York Times (external link), paywalled]
The Washington Post paints Kent as a decorated war veteran, a CIA hand, and an anti-interventionist, and frames the resignation as the first high-level rupture over the Iran war. [Washington Post (external link), paywalled]
The Guardian has a clear-eyed 'who is this man?' piece that talks not merely of his war record, but also of his ties to far-right networks and conspiracy ecosystems.
What this piece does is it prevents us from reading the resignation as a clear moral stand, and situates it in the realm of far-right populism. [The Guardian (external link)]
The Atlantic dissects the core claim of Kent's letter, which is, that Trump did not so much chose the war as he was manipulated into it.
The piece also identifies a contradiction in MAGA (and by extension, all authoritarian) thinking: The leader must at the same time be seen as strong, but also not responsible for failures. [The Atlantic (external link), paywalled]
Semafor details the fissures inside the MAGA movement and frames Kent's resignation not as a one-off, but as a stress test of the movement. [Semafor (external link)]
Larijani's last public message, posted Monday, was addressed to Muslim-majority nations watching from the sidelines: 'You know that America has no loyalty to you, and that Israel is your enemy. Which side are you on?' Twenty-four hours later, he was assassinated.
The war that both sides were, however tentatively, beginning to feel their way out of has just become harder to end. The off-ramps are narrowing. The hardliners on both sides are getting stronger.
And in Shyambazar, a sweet shop has just two days of gas left.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Over 1.7 million tonnes of India's fuel stuck in Strait of Hormuz​

Source: PTI March 18, 2026 21:59 IST

The Middle East conflict has disrupted India's energy supply, leaving numerous Indian ships carrying crude oil, LPG, and LNG stranded in the Persian Gulf and raising concerns about potential shortages.

IMAGE: Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz. Image used only for Strait of Hormuz. Photograph: Stringer/File Photo/Reuters​

Key Points​

• Approximately 22 Indian-flagged ships carrying vital energy resources, including crude oil, LPG, and LNG, are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.​
• The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global energy shipments, has been effectively shut down following attacks and retaliations, impacting nearly 500 tanker vessels.​
• India imports a significant portion of its crude oil, natural gas, and LPG through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by the conflict.​
• Efforts are underway to secure safe passage for the stranded Indian vessels, prioritising the safety of the 611 seafarers on board.​
• While crude oil supplies have been partially offset through alternative sources, gas and LPG supplies to Indian industrial and commercial users have been curtailed due to the disruption.​

India's 1.67 million tonnes of crude oil, 3.2 lakh tonnes of LPG and about 2 lakh tonnes of LNG are stuck on the 22 Indian-flagged ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, waiting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary in the Shipping Ministry, said Wednesday.
Originally, there were 28 Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz when the war in the Middle East broke out following United States-Israel attacks on Iran. Of these, 24 were on the west side of the strait and four on the east side. In the last week, two vessels from each side have managed to sail to safety.

"All 611 seafarers on 22 vessels (on the west side of the Strait) are safe," he told a news briefing.
There are now 3 vessels on the east side after one more Indian-flagged ship joined them.​

Details of Stranded Vessels​

Of the 22 remaining Indian-flagged vessels on the west side of the Strait of Hormuz, six are LPG carriers, one is a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, four are crude oil tankers, one is transporting chemical products, three are container ships, and two are bulk carriers.
Additionally, one vessel is a dredger, another is empty with no cargo, and three are in dry dock undergoing routine maintenance.
Sinha said efforts are on to secure passage of the Indian vessels through the war-hit strait.​

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, has effectively been shut following the US and Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's sweeping retaliation.
Overall, close to 500 tanker vessels remain confined to the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. These include 108 crude oil tankers, 166 oil product tankers, 104 chemical/product tankers, 52 chemical tankers, and 53 other tanker types.

Verification Process and Alternative Routes​

Analysts say Iran may be allowing select vessels to transit the strait after verification. At least 4 vessels have transited outbound from the Strait of Hormuz in the last couple of days with a short diversion via the Larak-Qeshm Channel.
This, they say, appears to be a verification process whereby Iran confirms the ownership and cargo and vessel are not US or belong to those that Iran has permitted transit to.
The ships that have passed are 3 bulk carriers (2 Greek / 1 Indian) and one Aframax tanker (Pakistan).

Impact on India's Energy Imports​

India imports about 88 per cent of its crude oil, 50 per cent of natural gas, and 60 per cent of LPG. Before the war broke out, more than half of the crude oil that India imported came from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which use the strait for shipping.
As much as 85-95 per cent of LPG and 30 per cent of the gas came through the strait. While the disruption in crude oil has been partially offset through alternative sources, such as Russia, West Africa, the US and Latin America, gas and LPG supplies to industrial and commercial users have been curtailed.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Over 1.7 million tonnes of India's fuel stuck in Strait of Hormuz​

Source: PTI March 18, 2026 21:59 IST

The Middle East conflict has disrupted India's energy supply, leaving numerous Indian ships carrying crude oil, LPG, and LNG stranded in the Persian Gulf and raising concerns about potential shortages.



IMAGE: Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz. Image used only for Strait of Hormuz. Photograph: Stringer/File Photo/Reuters

Key Points

• Approximately 22 Indian-flagged ships carrying vital energy resources, including crude oil, LPG, and LNG, are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global energy shipments, has been effectively shut down following attacks and retaliations, impacting nearly 500 tanker vessels.
• India imports a significant portion of its crude oil, natural gas, and LPG through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by the conflict.
• Efforts are underway to secure safe passage for the stranded Indian vessels, prioritising the safety of the 611 seafarers on board.
• While crude oil supplies have been partially offset through alternative sources, gas and LPG supplies to Indian industrial and commercial users have been curtailed due to the disruption.

India's 1.67 million tonnes of crude oil, 3.2 lakh tonnes of LPG and about 2 lakh tonnes of LNG are stuck on the 22 Indian-flagged ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, waiting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary in the Shipping Ministry, said Wednesday.

Originally, there were 28 Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz when the war in the Middle East broke out following United States-Israel attacks on Iran. Of these, 24 were on the west side of the strait and four on the east side. In the last week, two vessels from each side have managed to sail to safety."All 611 seafarers on 22 vessels (on the west side of the Strait) are safe," he told a news briefing.There are now 3 vessels on the east side after one more Indian-flagged ship joined them.

Details of Stranded Vessels

Of the 22 remaining Indian-flagged vessels on the west side of the Strait of Hormuz, six are LPG carriers, one is a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, four are crude oil tankers, one is transporting chemical products, three are container ships, and two are bulk carriers. Additionally, one vessel is a dredger, another is empty with no cargo, and three are in dry dock undergoing routine maintenance. Sinha said efforts are on to secure passage of the Indian vessels through the war-hit strait.The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, has effectively been shut following the US and Israel attack on Iran and Tehran's sweeping retaliation. Overall, close to 500 tanker vessels remain confined to the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. These include 108 crude oil tankers, 166 oil product tankers, 104 chemical/product tankers, 52 chemical tankers and 53 other tanker types.

Verification Process and Alternative Routes

Analysts say Iran may be allowing select vessels to transit the strait after verification. At least 4 vessels have transited outbound the Strait of Hormuz in the last couple of days with a short diversion via the Larak-Qeshm Channel.

This, they say, appears to be a verification process whereby Iran confirms the ownership, cargo and vessel are not US, or belong to those that Iran has permitted transit to. The ships that have passed are 3 bulk carriers (2 Greek / 1 Indian) and one Aframax tanker (Pakistan).

Impact on India's Energy Imports

India imports about 88 per cent of its crude oil, 50 per cent of natural gas, and 60 per cent of LPG. Before the war broke out, more than half of the crude oil that India imported came from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, which use the strait for shipping.

As much as 85-95 per cent of LPG and 30 per cent of the gas came through the strait. While the disruption in crude oil has been partially offset through alternative sources, such as Russia, West Africa, the US and Latin America, gas and LPG supplies to industrial and commercial users have been curtailed.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Russia warns US-Israeli strike on Iranian port risks Caspian conflict​

March 20, 2026 20:45 IST

Russia expresses alarm over the US-Israeli strike on Iran's Bandar Anzali port, warning of potential Caspian conflict escalation and disruption to vital trade routes like the INSTC.

"On March 18, the Iranian port of Anzali on the Caspian Sea was bombed. This major Caspian harbour is an important trade and logistics hub, actively used to support Russian-Iranian trade, including food," Zakharova said. According to a statement on the ministry's website, it noted that the economic interests of Russia and other Caspian states that maintain transport links with Iran through this port are affected. It also directly affects Russian and Azerbaijan (Baku) supplies to India. The Caspian Sea has always been perceived by countries in the region and the international community as a safe space for peace and cooperation.

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a multi-modal project linking Mumbai to St. Petersburg via Iran, bypassing the Suez Canal. Russia on Wednesday expressed concern and warned that the "irresponsible" US-Israeli strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, a key transit hub on the INSTC linking Mumbai with St. Petersburg, created the risk of drawing the Caspian states into the ongoing conflict. The multi-modal International North-South Transport Corridor links Mumbai to St. Petersburg via Iran, bypassing the Suez Canal, to boost trade between Asia and Europe. The Customs House and some other structures were destroyed in Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea coast on March 18 in the Israeli-American joint strike, local media reports said.
India, Iran, and Russia had signed the multi-modal INSTC agreement in 2000 to link Mumbai to St. Petersburg, bypassing the Suez Canal via Iran, to boost trade between Asia and Europe. Many nations, including some Gulf states and Pakistan, have joined this project at different stages.
Over 7.5 million tonnes of cargo was transported through the trans-Caspian route by the end of 2025, Russian Deputy PM Vitaly Saveliev said at a meeting of the Transport Ministry here on Friday.
India, Iran, and Russia had signed the multi-modal INSTC agreement in 2000 to link Mumbai to St. Petersburg, bypassing the Suez Canal via Iran, to boost trade between Asia and Europe. Many nations, including some Gulf states and Pakistan, have joined this project at different stages.
"The reckless and irresponsible actions of the aggressors create the risk of drawing the Caspian states into a military conflict. We once again strongly call for an immediate cessation of military action and a resumption of efforts to achieve a political settlement of the situation in the Middle East, which is increasingly projected onto neighboring regions," Zakharova said. Russia condemns the US-Israeli strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, a crucial hub for the International North-South Transport Corridor. The strike on Bandar Anzali, a key Caspian Sea port, is seen as escalating conflict and risking the involvement of Caspian states. Russia highlights the economic impact of the strike, affecting Russian-Iranian trade and the interests of other Caspian nations. Russia calls for an immediate cessation of military action and a return to political settlement efforts in the Middle East.
"We are watching with growing alarm the expanding geography of Israeli and US air strikes in Iran. The US-Israeli coalition continues to add fuel to the war they have ignited in the Middle East (West Asia), further escalating it," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.
The bombing of the key post by the Israel-US combine is a sure sign of escalation of the war against Iran, especially to delink Iran from Caspian states and also Russian supplies to India. If not stopped further, Caspian states where Russia is prominent may also join in the conflict, making a world war III situation.​