Iran, Israel, US war

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Everyone thinks Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz.
That’s wrong.
Iran didn’t close it.
London did.
Not the government.
Insurance companies.
The most important oil artery in the world nearly stopped flowing.
Let me explain.
Every day, about 107 cargo ships normally pass through it.
Energy lifelines for the global economy.
Last week?
Only 19 ships crossed.
An 81% collapse in traffic.
No missiles.
Just one decision:
Insurance companies withdrew coverage.
Here’s how global shipping really works.
About 90% of the world’s ships are insured by 12 maritime insurance clubs.
These clubs rely on reinsurance markets — mostly based in London.
When war risk rises…
Reinsurers can pull coverage.
And when that happens:
No insurance
→ ships cannot sail
→ trade stops.
A $150M tanker will not move without insurance.
So the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t blocked by a navy.
It was blocked by a spreadsheet.
Now the real question:
Who is actually being choked?
Three players.
1. Iran
Almost all Iranian oil exports leave through Hormuz.
If shipping collapses:
Iran cannot export.
Its war revenue disappears.
Ironically, the oil weapon hurts Iran itself first.
2. China
China is the most exposed country on earth to Hormuz disruption.
* ~40% of Chinese crude imports pass through the strait
* ~90% of Iranian oil exports go to China
* Qatar LNG shipments to China must cross Hormuz
So if this route freezes…
China’s energy security starts shaking.
That’s why Beijing quickly urged de-escalation.
3.The entire Gulf
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Qatar
Kuwait
Iraq
Their oil exports depend on it.
Hormuz carries ~20 million barrels/day.
There is no alternative route.
And here’s where the British financial system quietly enters the story.
For centuries, London has dominated maritime insurance.
From Lloyd’s markets to global reinsurance.
That means:
When London decides the risk is too high…
Global shipping freezes.
No blockade required.
Does this help Russia?
Short term — yes.
If Gulf exports slow:
* Oil prices rise
* Russian crude become valuable
* Asia may buy more Russian oil
Higher prices mean more money for Moscow.
What about India?
India imports ~85% of its oil.
Much of it comes from the Middle East.
If Hormuz disruption continues:
* Shipping costs rise
* Oil prices spike
* Inflation pressure increases
India’s advantage is diversification.
It buys from:
* Gulf producers
* Russia
* Other suppliers
But if Hormuz stays unstable…
everyone pays more.
The biggest lesson here?
Most people think geopolitics is controlled by:
Presidents.
Generals.
Missiles.
But sometimes…
The real gatekeepers are actuaries running risk models in London.
They don’t fire weapons.
They price probability.
And when the numbers don’t work…
global trade simply stops.
If you want to understand modern geopolitics, remember this:
The world is no longer controlled only by governments.
It’s controlled by systems.
Insurance systems.
Energy systems.
Financial systems.
Missiles create headlines.
Risk models decide what actually moves

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

दुनिया में रूस, चीन और उत्तर कोरिया ही ऐसे देश माने जाते हैं जिनके पास ऐसी Intercontinental Ball!stic
M!ssiles (ICBMs) हैं जो सीधे अमेरिका की मुख्य भूमि (Mainland) तक पहुँचने की क्षमता रखती हैं।

1. रूस (Russia)
रूस के पास दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा मिसाइल जखीरा है। उनकी Sarmat (RS-28) जैसी मिसाइलें लगभग 15,000+ किमी की दूरी तय कर सकती हैं। रूस से अमेरिका तक मिसाइल पहुँचने में औसतन 25 से 30 मिनट का समय लगता है।
2. चीन (China)
चीन की DF-41 (Dongfeng-41) मिसाइल की रेंज 12,000 से 15,000 किमी के बीच है। यह मिसाइल भी लगभग 30 मिनट के अंदर अमेरिका के किसी भी हिस्से को निशाना बना सकती है।
3. उत्तर कोरिया (North Korea)
उत्तर कोरिया ने हाल के वर्षों में अपनी तकनीक में बहुत सुधार किया है। उनकी Hwasong-15 और Hwasong-18 मिसाइलों का परीक्षण सफल रहा है, जो अमेरिका तक पहुँचने की क्षमता रखती हैं। उत्तर कोरिया से अमेरिका (जैसे न्यूयॉर्क या वॉशिंगटन) तक पहुँचने में लगभग 30 से 40 मिनट का समय लग सकता है।
#BreakingNews #IranvsIsrael #MiddleEastConflict #iran #usa

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Recent data from INSS highlight Iran’s response through ballistic missile and drone strikes across several countries in the Middle East, following the joint U.S.–Israel air attacks.
The United Arab Emirates appears as the most targeted location, with an estimated 863 missiles and drones, followed by Kuwait with 562. Qatar recorded around 162 incidents, Bahrain 129, and Israel 113, while Jordan reported 49. Smaller figures were registered in Cyprus (5), Oman (2), and Saudi Arabia (2).
The geographic pattern is closely tied to regional military infrastructure. Countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE host major U.S. and allied military bases, making them central nodes in the region’s defense network. Many of the incoming missiles and drones were intercepted by air defense systems, yet the scale of launches highlights the growing role of high-volume drone and missile warfare in modern conflicts.
Sources: INSS, Aljazeera, The Guardian

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

ਪੱਛਮੀ ਏਸ਼ੀਆ ਵਿੱਚ ਬੁੱਧਵਾਰ ਨੂੰ ਯੁੱਧ ਦੇ ਹੋਰ ਤੇਜ਼ ਹੋਣ ਦੇ ਨਾਲ ਹੀ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੇ ਰੈਵੋਲਿਊਸ਼ਨਰੀ ਗਾਰਡ ਨੇ ਇੱਕ ਸਖ਼ਤ ਧਮਕੀ ਜਾਰੀ ਕੀਤੀ।ਧਮਕੀ ਜਾਰੀ ਕਰਦਿਆਂ ਉਸ ਨੇ ਕਿਹਾ ਕਿ ਉਹ "ਖੇਤਰ ਦੇ ਫੌਜੀ ਅਤੇ ਆਰਥਿਕ ਬੁਨਿਆਦੀ ਢਾਂਚੇ ਨੂੰ ਪੂਰੀ ਤਰ੍ਹਾਂ ਤਬਾਹ ਕਰਨ" ਲਈ ਤਿਆਰ ਹੈ।
ਰੈਵੋਲਿਊਸ਼ਨਰੀ ਗਾਰਡ ਨੇ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੇ ਸਰਕਾਰੀ ਟੈਲੀਵਿਜ਼ਨ ਰਾਹੀਂ ਬਿਆਨ ਜਾਰੀ ਕੀਤਾ।
ਬਿਆਨ ਵਿੱਚ ਕਿਹਾ ਗਿਆ ਹੈ ਕਿ "ਅਮਰੀਕੀ ਫੌਜੀ ਕਾਰਵਾਈ ਅਤੇ ਧੋਖੇ ਦੇ ਨਤੀਜੇ ਵਜੋਂ ਖੇਤਰ ਦੇ ਫੌਜੀ ਅਤੇ ਆਰਥਿਕ ਬੁਨਿਆਦੀ ਢਾਂਚੇ ਨੂੰ ਪੂਰੀ ਤਰ੍ਹਾਂ ਤਬਾਹ ਕਰ ਦਿੱਤਾ ਜਾਵੇਗਾ।"

ਈਰਾਨ ਦੀ ਇਸਲਾਮਿਕ ਰੈਵੋਲਿਊਸ਼ਨਰੀ ਗਾਰਡ ਕੋਰ (IRGC), ਜਿਸ ਨੂੰ 'ਪਾਸਦਾਰਾਨ' ਵੀ ਕਿਹਾ ਜਾਂਦਾ ਹੈ, ਸਿਰਫ਼ ਇੱਕ ਫੌਜੀ ਟੁਕੜੀ ਨਹੀਂ ਹੈ, ਸਗੋਂ ਇਹ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੀ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਸ਼ਕਤੀਸ਼ਾਲੀ ਸਿਆਸੀ, ਫੌਜੀ ਅਤੇ ਆਰਥਿਕ ਸੰਸਥਾ ਹੈ।
1.ਸੁਤੰਤਰ ਫੌਜੀ ਢਾਂਚਾ
IRGC ਈਰਾਨ ਦੀ ਨਿਯਮਤ ਫੌਜ (Artesh) ਤੋਂ ਵੱਖਰੀ ਕੰਮ ਕਰਦੀ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਕੋਲ ਆਪਣੀ ਖੁਦ ਦੀ ਥਲ ਸੈਨਾ: ਜੋ ਅੰਦਰੂਨੀ ਅਤੇ ਬਾਹਰੀ ਸੁਰੱਖਿਆ ਦੇਖਦੀ ਹੈ। ਹਵਾਈ ਸੈਨਾ: ਜੋ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੇ ਰਣਨੀਤਕ ਮਿਜ਼ਾਈਲ ਪ੍ਰੋਗਰਾਮ ਨੂੰ ਕੰਟਰੋਲ ਕਰਦੀ ਹੈ। ਨੇਵੀ (ਸਮੁੰਦਰੀ ਫੌਜ): ਜੋ ਖਾਸ ਕਰਕੇ ਫਾਰਸ ਦੀ ਖਾੜੀ ਅਤੇ ਹੋਰਮੁਜ਼ ਦੇ ਜਲਡਮਰੂ (Strait of Hormuz) ਵਿੱਚ ਅਮਰੀਕੀ ਬੇੜਿਆਂ ਨੂੰ ਚੁਣੌਤੀ ਦੇਣ ਲਈ ਜਾਣੀ ਜਾਂਦੀ ਹੈ।
2. ਮਿਜ਼ਾਈਲ ਅਤੇ ਡਰੋਨ ਤਾਕਤ
IRGC ਕੋਲ ਪੱਛਮੀ ਏਸ਼ੀਆ (Middle East) ਦਾ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਵੱਡਾ ਬੈਲਿਸਟਿਕ ਮਿਜ਼ਾਈਲ ਭੰਡਾਰ ਹੈ। ਇਹਨਾਂ ਦੀਆਂ ਮਿਜ਼ਾਈਲਾਂ 2,000 ਕਿਲੋਮੀਟਰ ਤੱਕ ਮਾਰ ਕਰ ਸਕਦੀਆਂ ਹਨ, ਜਿਸ ਨਾਲ ਇਜ਼ਰਾਈਲ ਅਤੇ ਅਮਰੀਕੀ ਫੌਜੀ ਅੱਡੇ ਇਹਨਾਂ ਦੀ ਪਹੁੰਚ ਵਿੱਚ ਆ ਜਾਂਦੇ ਹਨ।
ਈਰਾਨੀ ਡਰੋਨ (UAVs) ਤਕਨੀਕ ਵਿੱਚ ਵੀ IRGC ਨੇ ਬਹੁਤ ਤਰੱਕੀ ਕੀਤੀ ਹੈ, ਜਿਸ ਦੀ ਵਰਤੋਂ ਹਾਲ ਹੀ ਦੇ ਕਈ ਸੰਘਰਸ਼ਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਦੇਖੀ ਗਈ ਹੈ।
3. ਕੁਦਸ ਫੋਰਸ (Quds Force) - ਵਿਦੇਸ਼ੀ ਆਪਰੇਸ਼ਨ ਇਹ IRGC ਦੀ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਪ੍ਰਭਾਵਸ਼ਾਲੀ ਇਕਾਈ ਹੈ ਜੋ ਦੇਸ਼ ਤੋਂ ਬਾਹਰ ਗੁਪਤ ਮਿਸ਼ਨ ਚਲਾਉਂਦੀ ਹੈ। ਇਹ ਲੇਬਨਾਨ ਵਿੱਚ ਹਿਜ਼ਬੁੱਲਾ, ਗਾਜ਼ਾ ਵਿੱਚ ਹਮਾਸ, ਅਤੇ ਯਮਨ ਵਿੱਚ ਹੁਤੀ ਬਾਗੀਆਂ ਵਰਗੇ ਸੰਗਠਨਾਂ ਨੂੰ ਸਿਖਲਾਈ ਅਤੇ ਹਥਿਆਰ ਮੁਹੱਈਆ ਕਰਵਾਉਂਦੀ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਦੇ ਜ਼ਰੀਏ ਈਰਾਨ ਪੂਰੇ ਮੱਧ ਪੂਰਬ ਵਿੱਚ ਆਪਣਾ ਪ੍ਰਭਾਵ ਬਣਾ ਕੇ ਰੱਖਦਾ ਹੈ।
4. ਬਾਸੀਜ਼ (Basij) ਮਿਲੀਸ਼ੀਆ ਇਹ ਇੱਕ ਸਵੈ-ਸੇਵੀ ਅਰਧ-ਸੈਨਿਕ ਬਲ ਹੈ ਜਿਸ ਵਿੱਚ ਲੱਖਾਂ ਲੋਕ ਸ਼ਾਮਲ ਹਨ। ਇਹ ਦੇਸ਼ ਦੇ ਅੰਦਰ ਵਿਰੋਧ ਪ੍ਰਦਰਸ਼ਨਾਂ ਨੂੰ ਦਬਾਉਣ ਅਤੇ ਲੋਕਾਂ 'ਤੇ ਨਜ਼ਰ ਰੱਖਣ ਲਈ IRGC ਦਾ ਮੁੱਖ ਹਥਿਆਰ ਹੈ।
5. ਆਰਥਿਕ ਸਾਮਰਾਜ IRGC ਦੀ ਤਾਕਤ ਸਿਰਫ਼ ਹਥਿਆਰਾਂ ਤੱਕ ਸੀਮਤ ਨਹੀਂ ਹੈ। ਇਹ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੀ ਆਰਥਿਕਤਾ ਦੇ ਲਗਭਗ 30% ਤੋਂ 50% ਹਿੱਸੇ ਨੂੰ ਕੰਟਰੋਲ ਕਰਦੀ ਹੈ। ਤੇਲ ਅਤੇ ਗੈਸ, ਉਸਾਰੀ (Construction), ਬੈਂਕਿੰਗ, ਅਤੇ ਦੂਰਸੰਚਾਰ ਵਰਗੇ ਵੱਡੇ ਖੇਤਰਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਇਹਨਾਂ ਦੀਆਂ ਕੰਪਨੀਆਂ ਦਾ ਕਬਜ਼ਾ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਆਰਥਿਕ ਤਾਕਤ ਕਾਰਨ ਇਹਨਾਂ 'ਤੇ ਲੱਗੀਆਂ ਕੌਮਾਂਤਰੀ ਪਾਬੰਦੀਆਂ ਦਾ ਵੀ ਇਹਨਾਂ 'ਤੇ ਬਹੁਤ ਘੱਟ ਅਸਰ ਹੁੰਦਾ ਹੈ।
ਸੰਖੇਪ ਵਿੱਚ IRGC ਸਿੱਧੇ ਤੌਰ 'ਤੇ ਈਰਾਨ ਦੇ ਸਰਵਉੱਚ ਨੇਤਾ (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) ਨੂੰ ਰਿਪੋਰਟ ਕਰਦੀ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਦੀ ਤਾਕਤ ਇਸ ਗੱਲ ਵਿੱਚ ਹੈ ਕਿ ਇਹ ਰਵਾਇਤੀ ਯੁੱਧ (Conventional War) ਅਤੇ ਗੁਪਤ ਯੁੱਧ (Proxy War) ਦੋਵਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਮਾਹਿਰ ਹੈ।

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.

IMAGE: Vapor trails in the sky after Israel intercepted missiles launched from Iran, as seen from Tel Aviv, March 6, 2026. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

In 1832, the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote (in his book On War, Vom Kriege in the original) that war is 'the realm of uncertainty'.

His point was that commanders act in a fog of incomplete information, misread signals, and unknowable enemy intentions. From that thesis comes a phrase in current usage: 'The fog of war'.

That fog is upon us now, and visibility has been reduced to near zero. The difference is that nearly two centuries after Clausewitz wrote of the problem of operating in an informational vacuum, the nature of the fog has mutated.

A missile strike is filmed, uploaded, contested, debunked, and re-shared, and all this happens within an hour.

Key Points​

• The traditional 'fog of war', described by von Clausewitz, now manifests through misinformation, deepfakes, and viral social media narratives.
• A digitally altered video involving army chief General Upendra Dwivedi illustrates how manipulated content spreads rapidly online.
• Analysts suggest back-channel US talks with Iran, but Tehran has rejected ceasefire calls and vows to continue fighting.
• Mojtaba Khamenei's elevation as Iran's supreme leader signals a harder line amid escalating tensions with the US and Israel.
• The conflict is already impacting India's economy, disrupting exports, shipping routes, fuel supplies and food security.

The Iris Dena had visited India (external link) on an invite by the Indian Navy to take part in naval exercises; revealing its whereabouts would amount to a shocking betrayal.

As it turns out, the video was digitally altered. Readers pointed out that General Dwivedi says no such thing in the original video (external link).

This is the new fog of war. And it is, in some ways, more dangerous than the original.

IMAGE: Iranian players film supporters blocking the bus on their departure following the AFC Women's Asian Cup Group A match between Iran and the Philippines at the Gold Coast stadium on the Gold Coast, Australia, March 8, 2026. Photograph: AAP/via Reuters
The fog Clausewitz spoke of was honest uncertainty: Field commanders, constrained by the primitive means of communications available in the 19th century, did not know what was happening outside their immediate area of operations.

Today's fog, on the other hand, is engineered. State media, military spokespeople, influence operations, and the relentless incentive structure of social media work together, and the combined cumulative effect makes truth elusive.

When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins. Or the most familiar one, the voice you follow. Or the one that confirms what you already believe.

I'm going to be writing here daily as this conflict develops. Not to tell you what is happening on the ground, or even who is right and who is wrong, because the fog makes that harder than most commentators will admit.

Rather, I hope to try and map the fog itself, to notice what we are being told but equally, what we are not being told, and what the gap between the two might mean.

In his tract, Clausewitz theorised that the fog would lift after the battle. But in this age of deep fakes, algorithmic amplification and 24-hour information warfare, the fog is designed never to lift.

While on this, Shayan Sardarizadeh, a journalist with BBC Verify, has a daily thread chronicling fakes and assorted mis- and disinformation. Here is his March 8 round-up (external link); his handle on X (external link) is worth bookmarking and following.

Another resource to cut through the fog is the blog Simplicius (external link), whose latest update sums up the state of play as on date.

Ceasefire Talks and Iran Response
Cutting through dueling voices, it also seems likely that the US (acting on behalf of Israel) is in back-channel talks with Iran to bring about a ceasefire.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, however, categorically ruled it out (external link), saying that Iran will continue to fight till there is a permanent end to the war.

Aragchi pointed out that a ceasefire had been put in place to end the 12-Day War (13 to 24, June 2025) and that the present war was in violation of those terms.

The thinking underpinning Aragchi's stand seems to be that Israel, which is being hit particularly hard by the escalating missile attacks on its capital and on major defense installations, needs a ceasefire in order to recalibrate, to plug the increasing gaps in its Iron Dome defenCe system, and to replenish its depleting armory.
Equally, the US has been burning through its military inventory and needs time to restock, to replenish.
Iran's no to a ceasefire proposal appears to be aimed at denying Israel and the US that breathing space.

IMAGE: A woman holds an image of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the day of an anti-Israeli and US rally in Tehran, March 6, 2026. Photograph: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Reuters

Iran's changing of the guard​

In arguably the most significant development over the weekend, Mojtaba Khamenei, second son of the slain Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen (external link) as Iran's new supreme leader.

On 28 February, the opening day of the conflict, Mojtaba had lost his father; his mother was grievously injured and died two days later; he lost his wife, one of his sons, and a niece, besides other close relatives.

IMAGE: A picture of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is displayed on a screen in Tehran, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
Deemed 'unacceptable' by Donald Trump earlier, Mojtaba Khamenei is widely believed to be more hardline than his father.
Amal Saad, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, views his elevation as an affirmation (external link) of Iranian sovereignty.
Mojtaba's elevation to the most powerful position in Iran is seen as a signal that far from suing for peace, Iran is prepared to double down on its aggressive pushback against the US and Israel.

This plays into the popular mood. There have been reports of massive demonstrations in Iranian cities, demanding revenge (external link) for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination.
It also undercuts chances for a Kurd-led insurgency that the US has been working towards -- such local insurgencies work only when there is an existing groundswell of unrest against the regime.

Interestingly, Al-Jazeera in a piece this Sunday (external link) mused on the mixed signals coming from the Iranian leadership, and suggested that the answer lay in Iran's lack of a designated supreme leader, and a clear chain of command. With Mojtaba Khamenei's elevation, that problem appears to have been solved.

CNN (external link), Iran International (external link), and the New York Times (external link) among others have extensive pieces on Iran's new leader.

IMAGE: A woman walks past a screen displaying news and stock market updates at the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai, March 2, 2026. Photograph: Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters

India Faces Economic Fallout​

Kerala and other south Indian states find themselves in trouble (external link) as cancelled flights have hit the supply chain for vegetables, fruits and seafood.

100 to 150 tons of vegetables, fruits, flowers and seafood are exported daily from Thiruvananthapuram international airport -- part of the 400 to 600 tons across the four international airports in Kerala, and that flow is now halted.

Elsewhere, 60,000 tons of basmati rice is stuck (external link) in various Indian ports, and exporters are now petitioning the government for various relief measures.

In the Morbi district of Gujarat, nearly 100 ceramic manufacturing units have been shut down following disruptions to supplies of propane gas, and another 400 units could shut down soon, National Herald (external link) and Hindu Businessline (external link) reports.

NDTV reports (external link) that as many as 23,000 Indian sailors could be stranded across the Gulf region. 36 Indian ships, including seven belonging to the Shipping Corporation of India, remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, the report says. Most of these ships were transporting crude oil, LPG and other commercial cargo.

Writing in Bloomberg (external link), Andy Mukherjee looks at India's many vulnerabilities even as oil prices climb past $114 per barrel. The last time oil breached the $100 mark was way back in 2022.

Besides such hot button issues as the exchange rate, the soaring price of gold, and the crippling impact of potential oil shortages, Mukherjee also looks at the potential impact on food security.

IMAGE: A man refuels his bike at a fuel station in New Delhi, March 6, 2026. Photograph: Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters
'Beyond the fuel pump,' Mukherjee writes, 'an enduring conflict could threaten food security.

'Qatar's liquefied natural gas, whose production has come to a temporary halt, is required as a feedstock in domestic fertilizer plants.

'Include it, and nearly half of India's soil nutrients are physically or economically hostage to the Gulf.

'A sustained stoppage would force a hard choice: a big expansion of an already sizable $19 billion fertilizer subsidy, or the displeasure of tens of millions of farming households.'

In passing, it is worth noting that the situation is fluid, and more signs of the impact of war on the Indian economy will emerge almost hourly.

I will, in my daily roundups, attempt to link to the most significant of such stories.

IMAGE: An Iranian missile with cluster munitions flies towards Israel, in central Israel, March 5, 2026. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Seeing through the smoke

Jay Caspian Kang, writing in the New Yorker (external link) in October 2025, asked a question that is even more pertinent today.

In a piece on how the public remembers the war in Gaza, he asked what happens 'when every image becomes a site of contestation; when the rare sights we all see together, whether joyous or devastating, quickly fray into thousands, even millions, of threads, each with their own grip on reality'?

The piece is worth reading today, because it underlines the dilemma of all of us who attempt to peer through the fog of war, and to make sense of what is happening around us.

CNN's analytical piece (external link) from March 6 argues that Trump's demand to have a say in selecting Iran's next supreme leader reveals his 'Venezuela model' thinking: Military pressure forcing regime change rather than forcing regime collapse.

But Iran, the piece notes, is far more heavily armed and ideologically hardened than Maduro's Venezuela.

And a companion piece (external link) quotes historian Max Boot: 'This war that Trump launched is unwarranted and illegal. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll be unsuccessful.'

It maps out both the optimistic scenario and the Iraq/Afghanistan echo -- two theatres where earlier attempts to effect regime change ended disastrously -- that haunts the entire enterprise.

IMAGE: A satellite image of an industrial area covered in smoke in Dubai, March 1, 2026. Photograph: 2026 Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters
This one is a bit old, but worth reading for background: A Centre for Strategic and International Studies analysis (external link) maps the regional reverberations of the conflict: Iran has struck targets in Bahrain (where, in the most recent development, the king has reportedly fled the country), Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq and Oman.

The piece asks whether the Gulf States, caught between their US security umbrella and their economic exposure to Iran, can maintain any kind of neutrality.

In Bloomberg's opinion (external link) piece from March 6, Liam Denning argues that the war marks a historic shift: the US has gone from being the underwriter of global energy security to its disrupter.

With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, the four names that could trigger a true global energy crisis -- Hormuz, Kharg Island, Abqaiq, and Ras Laffan -- are suddenly very much in the headlines.

Of these, Kharg Island is most likely to become a flashpoint. Here are some stories you need to read, on why Kharg matters:

For background, read Politico's piece titled The oil island that could break Iran (external link) , which details how the island handles up to 90% of Iran's crude exports, and is a cornerstone of the IRGC's revenue stream.

IMAGE: Police officers detain a protestor during a 'Stop The War' demonstration, in central Tel Aviv, March 7, 2026. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
The New Arab reports (external link) that White House advisor Jarrod Agen explicitly said on Fox Business: 'What we want to do is to get such massive oil reserves in Iran out of the hands of terrorists... We're going to get all of the oil out of the hands of terrorists.'

He compared Iran to Venezuela, where US energy companies have effectively taken over the oil industry following Maduro's capture.

IMAGE: People attend the funeral of the victims of the US strike on a school in Minab, Iran, March 3, 2026. Photograph: Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
On GZero, read Ian Bremmer (external link) who points out that the island is less than half the size of Manhattan and is not heavily fortified.

His core logic for an armed American takeover: 'You don't need to control the government if you control its main revenue source.'

But Bremmer also points to the logical countermove: Iran could simply destroy Kharg itself before US boots land, in the process sending oil to $120 and beyond and imposing massive costs on the world, while signaling that its tolerance for pain exceeds that of Washington.

Dainik Jagran English has a useful India-centric piece (external link) that puts Kharg in the context of the full naval picture: Iran's navy has been functionally eliminated from the Gulf, over 20 Iranian warships sunk, yet tankers were still loading at Kharg as of March 2 as per satellite imagery.

Its conclusion is stark: The world is operating on borrowed time in the Persian Gulf.

Moving on, the independent conflict monitor ACLED has a special issue (external link) just out and the highlight is the most granular conflict data available: Between February 28 and March 4, Iran launched over 90 attempted strikes on Israel alone, with around 20 hitting civilian areas.

That five-day total, ACLED notes, already exceeds 60% of all Iranian strikes recorded during the entire 12-day war last June, and suggests that Iran is burning through its {censored}nal at a pace that can't be sustained.

A Time story by Eric Cortellessa provides a blow-by-blow account (external link) of how Donald Trump decided to go to war in Iraq.

A 19FortyFive analysis (external link) by Robert Kelly is sCeptical: The risks are large, the American public is barely informed about why the war is being fought, US allies are keeping their distance, and if regime change requires a ground invasion, casualties could be enormous.

His bottom line: 'This will probably be a much bigger war than Trump and most Americans think.'

Linked to the above thought, read Phillips Payson O'Brien in The Atlantic (external link) , arguing that US capabilities are showing signs of rot.

Listing various unexpected setbacks suffered by the US, O'Brien concludes: "Just as the Roman empire survived for two more centuries after it started to decline, the United States isn't in danger of imminent collapse.

'But Trump's rejection of planning, expertise, and diplomacy is beginning to have real-world consequences.'

A Foreign Affairs piece (external link) by Dalia Dassa Kaye argues that a US war with Iran, launched on the assumption that military pressure could weaken or even topple the regime, rests on dangerously optimistic thinking.

Even if Iran's leadership were degraded, the authors contend, the likely outcomes range from hard-line military rule to State collapse and prolonged chaos, neither of which would stabilize the Middle East.

Iran's defeat would not resolve the region's deeper conflicts, militant networks would endure, US allies could grow more wary of Washington, and global ripple effects -- from energy markets to great-power competition -- could intensify.

In short, far from ushering in a 'new Middle East', the war risks leaving the region, and US interests, worse off than before.

IMAGE: A displaced boy looks at his phone, as his family shelters on a street near the Mohammad Al-Amin Mosque , following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Claudia Greco/Reuters
But wait, why is the US fighting this war in the first place?

We don't know what the objectives of the war are -- as the BBC roundup (external link) points out, the American leadership has been speaking in tongues.

We don't know how long it will last -- the Pentagon now says it could last until September (external link) (and it is worth keeping in mind that such estimates, without being mapped to a clearly defined objective, or a clear idea of what a win looks like, is just a shiftable goalpost).

We don't even know if the US is actually at 'war' -- Speaker of the House Mike Johnson says (external link) the president has made it 'very clear this is a limited operation'. Limited to what, is not clear.

We do know what it costs (external link) , via this ticker (external link) which is updated by the second.

As I write this, the cost -- to the US alone -- is $9 billion and climbing, and this does not even take into account the impact on the economy, the stock market, etc.

A Guardian chronicles Trump's constantly changing rationale (external link) for the war on Iran.

In an opinion piece in Bloomberg Max Hastings, who has written books on World War II, the Vietnam war and the Cuban Missile Crisis, argues that this is by design (external link) .

'What we have learned over the past 14 months about Trump's way of doing war and peace alike is that he never articulates clear objectives, so that nobody can accuse him of failing to attain them,' Hastings writes.

'Instead, he makes up a story from one morning to the next, so that he can choose his moment to declare victory and walk away, regardless of where it leaves the country concerned.'

Lydia Polgreen, who had served as the New York Times correspondent in India from 2009-2012 (when she helmed the insightful India Ink (external link) blog), in an opinion piece in the New York Times headlined 'Trump's Fantasy is Crashing Down'; (external link), makes the point that Trump's disconnect is scary.

"It is unsettling," Polgreen writes, "how often Trump affects astonishing indifference, as though the most powerful man in the world were merely a spectator to events he himself has set in motion -- and who, in any case, has little investment in the outcome.

'But that curious passivity reveals a darker truth.

'Trump seems to believe that he, like his fantasy America, exists on a different plane, utterly untouchable by the swirl of global events.

'The devastating consequences of his actions are not just someone else's fault. They are someone else's problem, too.'

At times like this, the only people who make sense are the late-night standups. Desi Lydic captures the fog of war perfectly, here (external link) .

This is already an overlong post (and reading all the pieces linked to here should keep you out of mischief for the next 24 hours at least).

But bear with me -- since this is the first post in a daily series, I've had to go back in time to establish a baseline narrative.

And I'll leave you now with one piece, from the London Review of Books, that has gone viral on the net.

IMAGE: Smoke rises following a strike on the Bapco oil refinery on Sitra Island Bahrain, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Reuters
In keeping with the London Review of Books's tradition of long-form political essay, Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi argues (external link) that the war on Iran was never compelled by evidence.

Rather, it was a choice driven by decades of neoconservative ambition and Netanyahu's lobbying.

The Islamic Republic, the piece insists, is not Saddam's Iraq or Gaddafi's Libya: It was built for exactly this kind of siege, and its sights are set on attrition, its strategy is to raise the cost of war until Washington blinks.

The most arresting section deals with Khamenei's death and its unintended consequences.

A figure widely hated at home -- 'Death to the Dictator' was a genuine street slogan -- may now be recast in martyrdom, the writer points out.

Trump may have removed him from the political landscape only to fix him permanently in it.

While reading this, I was reminded of Rahat Indori-saab's poem (external link) , which had attained anthemic status during the anti-CAA protests in India.

And specifically the lines: 'Lagegi aag to aayege ghar kai jad me/Yaha pe sirf hamara makan thodi hain'

What reminded me of this poem is the opening line of this London Review of Books piece: 'The dry and the wet burn together'.

The piece closes with the school in Minab, in the Hormozgan province, where 165 graves have been dug for girls aged seven to twelve, killed by a US double-tap strike, according to ongoing investigations. (external link) Its telling Persian epigraph -- "the dry and the wet burn together" -- returns towards the end, as both telling image and damning verdict.

And with that, I'll close for the day. Back tomorrow, with more.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

ईरान के आसपास अरब के सभी देशों ने अमेरिका को अच्छी ख़ासी जगह दे रखी है। अमेरिकी फ़ौजी ठिकाना अपने देश मे बनवाया हुआ है। यहां अमेरिकी फ़ौज, मिसाइल, राडार, हथियार सबकुछ है। पैसा अरबों का लगा है। ख़र्चा भी अरब उठाते हैं।
अमेरिका के ये फ़ौजी अड्डे इन अरब देशों की हिफ़ाज़त के लिए नही हैं बल्कि इजराइल की हिफ़ाज़त के लिए बनाए गए हैं। अमेरिका ने इन्ही अड्डों का इस्तेमाल कर के सद्दाम हुसैन को मरवाया, इराक में करोड़ो मुसलमान मारे, अफगानिस्तान को खंडहर बनाया, अफगानिस्तान में भी लाखों मुसलमान मारे, लीबिया, सीरिया, यमन हर जगह यहीं से मार काट मचाई जाती है और यही अरब देश इन अड्डों को पैसा, तेल और रसद देते हैं।
इजराइल ने ग़ाज़ा पर हमला किया तो सारे अरब चुप रहे सिर्फ़ ईरान बोला। इजराइल ने ईरान पर हमला कर दिया। बदले में ईरान ने भी इजराइल पर हमला किया। लेकिन कहानी में यहां एक पेंच है। इजराइल ने जब हमला किया तो इसरायली मिसाइल कई अरब देशों के ऊपर से होकर गुज़री। किसी अरब देश ने उफ्फ तक नही किया लेकिन जैसे ही ईरान ने इजराइल पर हमला किया तो इन्ही अरब देशों ने ईरानी मिसाइलों को हवा में मार गिराया और इजराइल को पल पल की ख़बर दी।
अब इस बार ईरान पर जब पहले हमला हुआ तब भी इसराइली जहाज़ और मिसाइल इन्ही अरब देशों के ऊपर से होकर आए। लेकिन अरबों ने कोई रोकटोक नही किया नतीजा यह निकला के एक स्कूल पर बम गिरा जिसमे 80 के करीब स्टूडेंट्स शहीद हुए।
बदले में ईरान ने 7 अरब देशों के अमेरिकन बेस पर हमला कर दिया। और यह हमला बिल्कुल जायज़ है। अब इसपर कुछ लोग बोल रहे हैं कि ईरान इजराइल पर हमला कर वो ठीक है अरबों पर हमला क्यों कर रहा है ?
अरे भैय्या अरब हैं ही इस लायक़। बड़ी जल्दी भूल गए जब ग़ाज़ा में बच्चे भूख से तड़प रहे थे तब सऊदी में शकीरा नाच रही थी। UAE में तो इजराइल के ख़िलाफ़ कुछ बोलने पर ही आप अरेस्ट हो जाएंगे।
हमे अरबों से सिर्फ़ इसलिए सहानभूति है क्योंकि वहां हमारे दो सबसे पाक शहर हैं। मक्का और मदीना। इन दोनों को छोड़कर पूरे अरब को अगर ईरान सुनसान बयाबान बना दे तब भी कोई फर्क नही पड़ेगा। उन अरबों से कैसी हमदर्दी जो अपने अरब फ़िलिस्तीनी भाइयों की मौत पर ख़ामोश रहे।

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

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US-Israel-Iran war: Putin announces 'unwavering' support for Tehran, key G7 meeting today | Top developments​

The finance ministers of G7 countries are meeting on Monday to discuss the potential release of strategic oil reserves. The meet comes as the conflict in the Middle East has sent energy prices spiraling, with oil soaring past USD 100 per barrel on Sunday. Here's the latest on the war in Iran.

Sagar Malik
Updated : Mar 09, 2026, 07:48 PM IST

More than 1,200 people have died across Iran in the ongoing war (Photo credit: Getty/AFP/Atta Kenare).

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The Israeli military on Monday said that it has launched a “wide-scale" wave of strikes in several parts of Iran, including Tehran, Isfahan, and southern Iran, simultaneously. This comes following NATO destroying a ballistic missile fired from Iran and intercepted in Turkish airspace by NATO defence systems. Earlier, Iran picked its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, following the killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the US-Israel joint strike late last month.

Khamenei’s son is supreme leader: The Middle East has entered a volatile new era as Mojtaba Khamenei is officially named to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the elder leader’s death in initial US-Israeli strikes. As the conflict enters its 10th day, the geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly: hardline Iranian factions have solidified power, global oil prices have skyrocketed by over 25 percent, and military escalations have spread to Lebanon, Iraq, and Bahrain.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Iran war: key developments: March 09, 2026​

• The succession: The Assembly of Experts has confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Despite US President Donald Trump’s refusal to recognise his legitimacy, the Iranian defence councils have pledged total “commander-in-chief” loyalty.
• Energy crisis: Brent crude has surged to $117.65/barrel—the largest single-day jump in history—as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, choking 20% of global supply.
• Military escalation: Israel has launched fresh waves of strikes targeting Tehran’s ballistic missile silos and Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut. Concurrently, drone strikes have hit the Bapco refinery in Bahrain and U.S. facilities in Iraq.
• Humanitarian toll: Reported civilian casualties in Iran have surpassed 1,300, while the US military confirms a seventh American service member has died from wounds sustained in the initial counter-attacks.

Mar 9, 2026 08:25 PM IST
IEA called for emergency oil stock release at G7 meeting, Japan says. The International Energy Agency (IEA) called for a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves during an online meeting with Group of Seven finance ministers on Mar 9, 2026, Monday, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told a ⁠briefing.

“IEA called for each country to do a coordinated release of oil reserves,” Katayama said. “In response to the current situation… the G7 has agreed to continue ⁠closely monitoring developments in the energy market and to take necessary ‌measures to support global energy supply, including the release of oil reserves.” (Reuters)

Mar 9, 2026 07:23 PM IST
Stock markets shudder worldwide after oil prices briefly spike to nearly $120 per barrel
Stock markets shuddered worldwide Monday on worries about whether the global economy can withstand spiking prices for oil, which briefly got to nearly $120 per barrel, their highest level since four summers ago. The S&P 500 fell 1%, coming off its worst week since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 576 points, or 1.2%, as of 9:35 am Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.8% lower. – AP
Mar 9, 2026 07:17 PM IST

US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: 'World will be safer when mission in Iran is accomplished,' says US Secretary Rubio
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that world is “going to be a safer and a better place when this mission is accomplished”.

Speaking during an event in Washington DC on Monday, Rubio said America is targeting “the world’s largest hostage taker, the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism – the regime in Iran”.
Mar 9, 2026 06:54 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: CBSE postpones class 12 board exams in Middle Eastern countries
CBSE has postponed Class 12 board exams scheduled till March 16 in Middle Eastern countries as the conflict between US-Israel and Iran widens.

Mar 9, 2026 06:34 PM IST
France to send two warships to Red Sea, President Macron says
France will send two frigates as part of the European Union’s ⁠naval mission Aspides in the Red Sea, French President Emmanuel Macron ⁠said on Monday.

“We are ‌in the process of setting up a purely defensive, purely escort ⁠mission, ⁠which must be prepared ⁠together ‌with both European and ‌non-European states,” Macron said, Reuters reported.


Mar 9, 2026 06:23 PM IST
French President Macron says, 'When Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked'
France President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said that “When Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked” amid Iran’s strikes in the region hitting several Gulf countries.

Mar 9, 2026 06:10 PM IST
Defence ministry intercepts missile as explosion heard in Qatar's Doha
An explosion was heard in Qatar’s capital Doha on Monday after the country’s defence ministry said that it intercepted a missile attack targeting the country.

Mar 9, 2026 05:40 PM IST
NATO intercepts ballistic missile that entered Turkey's airspace, defence ministry says
NATO on Monday intercepted a ballistic missile which entered Turkey’s airspace, the defense ministry said, AP reported/

Mar 9, 2026 05:36 PM IST
Turkey deploys six F-16 fighter jets, air defence systems to northern Cyprus
Turkey on Monday deployed six F-16 fighter jets and air defence systems to northern Cyprus in order to boost the security of the Turkish community, defence ministry said, vowing to take further measures if needed because of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

“In the context of the latest developments in our region, six F-16 fighter jets and air defence systems have been deployed to the Turkish Republic of ⁠Northern Cyprus as of today,” Turkey’s defence ministry said in a statement.

Mar 9, 2026 05:34 PM IST
Mehbooba Mufti visits Iran embassy, says praying for its victory in ‘war against evil’
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) president and former J&K chief minister Mehbooba Mufti on Monday visited the Iranian Cultural Centre and embassy in New Delhi to offer her condolences following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei in strikes by the US and Israel.

Mar 9, 2026 05:22 PM IST
At least 2 injured in Abu Dhabi after getting hit by debris
At least two people were injured in UAE’s Abu Dhabi after getting hit by debris from an intercepted airstrike, the Abu Dhabi Media Office stated on Monday in a post on X.

One of the injured person is from Jordan and the second wounded person is an Egyptian nationa
Mar 9, 2026 05:18 PM IST

US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Israeli military launches strikes on 3 areas of Iran
The Israeli Air Force on Monday said that they have launched strikes on three different areas across Iran. The Israeli military said that they have targeted Tehran, Isfahan and southern Iran simultaneously.

Mar 9, 2026 04:58 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: US and Iran spar over status of Iranian warship sunk by a submarine
The United States and Iran have offered sharply different accounts of the sinking of an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean last week, with Washington rejecting Tehran’s claim the vessel was unarmed and Iranian officials insisting it was operating in a noncombat role.

The United States Indo-Pacific Command on Sunday rejected Iran’s claim that the warship IRIS Dena was unarmed when it was sunk in a submarine attack in international waters off Sri Lanka on March 4. In a statement on X, INDOPACOM called Iran’s assertion that the vessel was unarmed “false.” – A

Mar 9, 2026 04:31 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: IndiGo Delhi-Manchester flight returns midway due to West Asia airspace restrictions
Domestic carrier IndiGo said one of its international flights was forced to return to its origin due to sudden airspace restrictions amid the evolving security situation in West Asia. In a press statement on Monday, the airline said flight 6E 033 operating from Delhi to Manchester had to turn back at the last minute after authorities imposed restrictions in the region. IndiGo added that some flights may take longer routes or face diversions due to the developments. The airline said it is coordinating with relevant authorities to explore options to resume the journey, stressing that the safety and security of passengers, crew, and aircraft remain its top priority.
Mar 9, 2026 04:24 PM IST

Putin congratulates Mojtaba Khamenei, reaffirms Russia’s support for Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a message released by the Kremlin, praising his courage as Iran faces armed aggression.
“At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your tenure in this high position undoubtedly requires great courage and dedication,” Putin wrote. “We are confident that you will honorably uphold your father’s legacy and unite the Iranian people in the face of severe trials,” he added.
Putin also reaffirmed Russia’s continued support for Tehran, calling Moscow a reliable partner of the Islamic Republic.

Mar 9, 2026 04:16 PM IST
Iran warns diaspora citizens of death penalty for supporting ‘enemy’
Iran has warned citizens living abroad that their assets in the country could be confiscated if they support or cooperate with the United States, Israel, or their allies. According to CNN reports, the Prosecutor General’s Office said “Any operational action carried out for Israel, hostile governments such as the United States, or any of their affiliated agents against the country’s security” would also be punishable by the death penalty, the statement said. The warning comes as anti-regime Iranians across Europe, North America, and Australia celebrate recent US strikes and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Mar 9, 2026 04:04 PM IST
BAPS Hindu mandir temporarily closed until further notice
The BAPS Hindu Mandir announced on Monday that it will remain closed to the public until further notice as a precaution due to the current security situation and in accordance with national advisories. Temple authorities said the decision was taken to ensure the safety of devotees and visitors. While the temple remains closed, swamis will continue to conduct prayers inside the premises for peace, protection and the wellbeing of all


Mar 9, 2026 03:50 PM IST
Iranian spokesperson outlines Iran’s stance after United States–Israel strikes
Iranian spokesperson during a news briefing on Monday stated that Iran will continue to defend itself amid the ongoing tensions following strikes by the United States and Israel, adding that discussions on mediation or a ceasefire are “irrelevant” while military confrontations persist.

• Iran says discussions about mediation or ceasefire efforts are currently “irrelevant” as long as military confrontations continue.
• Tehran reiterated that it will continue defending its territory and sovereignty amid the ongoing conflict.
• Iran said it did not initiate any offensive action against Turkiye, Cyprus, or Azerbaijan in the past week. The spokesperson suggested that some reports may have been “staged”.
• According to Iran, diplomatic talks that were underway before the recent attacks were “torpedoed” by the United States.
• Iran criticised the joint air strikes by the United States and Israel, saying the attacks have put international law at risk.
• Tehran accused Washington and Tel Aviv of attempting to divide the country and seize control of its “oil riches”.
• Despite the conflict, Iran said it remains committed to maintaining good and friendly relations with countries in the region.
• Iran added that it reserves the right to defend itself if the territories of other countries are used to launch attacks against it.

Mar 9, 2026 03:40 PM IST
Iran accuses US of plotting to ‘partition the country’ and control its oil
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei on Monday criticised comments by US President Donald Trump about exerting influence over Iran, asserting that the country’s future will be determined by the will of its people. He said Iranians are fully prepared to defend their territory and accused the United States of seeking to seize Iran’s oil resources and sabotage nation’s sovereignty.

Mar 9, 2026 03:19 PM IST "No point to talk...defence and retaliation against enemies," Iranian spokesperson
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, responding to the reports of Iranian attacks in Turkey, Azerbaijan or Cyprus, said that Iranian Armed Forces did not initiate any attack on these countries.
Regarding the possibility of a ceasefire, Baghaei stated that as long as attacks continue, there is “no point to talk about anything but defence and retaliation against enemies.” (Reuters

Mar 9, 2026 02:37 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: 600 Israelis stranded in Dubai land in Tel Aviv
The first two direct flights to bring back stranded Israelis landed today at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport.

Mar 9, 2026 02:16 PM IST
: Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut- In Photos

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon, Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo)

Mar 9, 2026 02:04 PM IST
IDF issues evacuation notices to residents
The Israeli military said that it has issued evacuation notices to residents in areas where the IDF is conducting strikes against Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure.

Mar 9, 2026 01:55 PM IST
Flight carrying 170 Israeli passengers from Dubai lands in Aqaba
An Israir flight, with 170 passengers on board, took off from Dubai last night and landed at Aqaba airport in Jordan.
Upon landing, the Israeli flight carrier provided transportation to the border crossing in Jordan, where the passengers were offered assistance, according to The Times of Israel.

Mar 9, 2026 01:38 PM IST
Footage shows moment Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran's new Supreme Leader- VIDEO
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: State news agency IRNA released footage of the moment when Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader.
Mar 9, 2026 01:23 PM IST
Air India expands flights to Europe, New York amid West Asia crisis; here’s all you need to know
Air India, on Monday (Mar 9), announced plans to deploy additional flight capacity to five key gateways in Europe as well as to New York (JFK) over the coming days, along with additional services to the Maldives and Sri Lanka, in response to high demand for travel options amid the ongoing situation in West Asia. The national flight carrier will operate 78 additional flights between 10 and 18 March 2026 across nine routes, linking Delhi and Mumbai with major destinations in Europe, the United States and neighbouring countries.

Missile alerts sounded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi as Iran launches fresh barrage; UAE says air defences intercept drones
The UAE’s air defenses are currently responding to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran. The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas are due to air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles and drones. Fighter jets are also intercepting drones and loitering munitions. The UAE has successfully intercepted 16 ballistic missiles and 113 drones so far, with some debris from intercepted projectiles causing minor damage in Dubai.

US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Japan should use nuclear plants to offset Iran crisis, opposition party head says
Japan should operate all of its available nuclear power plants to offset the impact of the Iran war on electricity bills, Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of a Japanese opposition party, said on Monday. Japan relies on the Middle East for around 95% of its oil supplies and 11% of its ⁠liquefied natural gas imports, with around 70% and 6% respectively coming via the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to the war. (Reuters)

US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: G7 to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves - report
As we’ve been reporting, the benchmark oil price passed $100 a barrel earlier for the first time since 2022, although has dipped slightly under since then.
Now, the Financial Times reports that G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves to tackle the surge in prices.
The oil reserves are co-ordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), with 32 members of the group holding strategic reserves as part of a collective emergency system designed for oil price crises.
Three G7 countries, including the US, have so far expressed their support for a possible joint release, according people familiar with the talks, the FT reports.

Mar 9, 2026 11:51 AM IST
Israel says missiles launched from Iran, interception effort under way
Israel’s army has detected missiles heading from Iran toward Israel “a short time ago”.
“Defense systems are operating to intercept the threat. In the last few minutes, the Home Front Command has sent advance instructions directly to mobile phones in the relevant areas,” its statement said on X.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

The US and Israel continue to strike Iran, hitting oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time.



An explosion erupts following strikes near Azadi Tower close to Mehrabad international airport in Tehran, March 7, 2026 [AFP]
The United States and Israel are continuing large-scale strikes on Iran, including an attack on an oil depot on Saturday, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran has widened to include the Gulf region as well as Lebanon and Iraq.
Iran has said the US will pay for waging war and continued its retaliatory strikes on Israel and US military assets in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian promising on Saturday to halt attacks on Gulf states as long as their territories were not used to attack Iran. Here is where things stand on day nine of the war:

In Iran​

• Military attacks and rising casualties: The US and Israel have continued large-scale strikes on Iran and struck oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time in the country. Late on Saturday, local media captured footage of a massive fire raging at the Shahran oil depot on the outskirts of Tehran. The Israeli military claimed responsibility for striking fuel storage and related sites it alleges are affiliated with the Iranian armed forces. At least 1,332 people have been killed since Israel and the US launched attacks on February 28.
• US demands: US President Donald Trump continued with his demand for an “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Late on Saturday, he stated that the war would continue for “a little while”, but stressed that Washington was not looking “to settle with Tehran." ”.
• Maritime threats and movements: The Iranian military confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but it explicitly stated that it would target any US or Israeli ships attempting to pass through. On Saturday, when asked by journalists about the lack of traffic through the strait, Trump said it was the choice of the ships and claimed that Washington has “wiped out” Iran’s navy.
• Relations with neighbours: President Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran wants good relations with the “brotherly” neighbouring countries, stating that the enemy is trying to create divisions. Pezeshkian said his remarks were “misinterpreted by the ⁠enemy that seeks to sow division ⁠with neighbours”, state TV reported on Sunday. His comments came as countries across the Gulf region reported drone strikes from Iran.
• Iran’s new leadership: Ayatollah Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, hinted that a decision on a successor to the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was near. In a video posted by the Fars news agency on Telegram, Mirbagheri said “great efforts to determine the leadership” had been made and that “a decisive and unanimous opinion” had been reached.
• War crimes: Human Rights Watch said the attack on a primary school in southern Iran that killed at least 160 people, many of them schoolchildren, should be investigated as a war crime. An Al Jazeera investigation has also found that the targeting of the school was likely "deliberate," while The New York Times reported that the strike may have been carried out by the US.
• Intelligence report: A report conducted by the US National Intelligence Council found that a “large-scale” US-led assault on Iran was unlikely to topple the country’s government, according to The Washington Post. The report also described the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country as "unlikely."
• Oil trade: The war has roiled global markets, and oil prices have hit multiyear highs, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut. In one week of the war, the Brent crude oil price climbed 27 percent, the biggest weekly gain since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Mar 10, 2026 06:15 AM IST

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, Monday. (Source: AP Photo)
US-Israel vs Iran War News Live Updates: As the conflict entered its second week, US President Donald Trump said the war against Iran could end “very soon”, describing the US-Israeli campaign as a “short-term excursion” that was already “pretty much” complete. However, Trump added that Washington had not yet achieved its final objective, saying the United States had “already won in many ways” but was still seeking an “ultimate victory” that would ensure Tehran could no longer threaten the US, Israel, or their regional allies. Meanwhile Israeli military on Monday said that it has launched “wide scale” wave of strikes in several parts of Iran, including Tehran, Isfahan and southern Iran simultaneously.
Khamenei’s son supreme leader: The Middle East has entered a volatile new era as Mojtaba Khamenei is officially named to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the elder leader’s death in initial US-Israeli strikes. As the conflict enters its 10th day, the geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly: hardline Iranian factions have solidified power, global oil prices have skyrocketed by over 25 per cent, and military escalations have spread to Lebanon, Iraq, and Bahrain.

Iran war: Here are key developments:​

• The succession: The Assembly of Experts has confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Despite US President Donald Trump’s refusal to recognise his legitimacy, the Iranian defence councils have pledged total “commander-in-chief” loyalty.
• Energy crisis: Brent crude has surged to $117.65/barrel—the largest single-day jump in history—as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, choking 20% of global supply.
• Military escalation: Israel has launched fresh waves of strikes targeting Tehran’s ballistic missile silos and Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut. Concurrently, drone strikes have hit the Bapco refinery in Bahrain and U.S. facilities in Iraq.
• Humanitarian toll: Reported civilian casualties in Iran have surpassed 1,300, while the US military confirms a seventh American service member has died from wounds sustained in the initial counter-attacks.

The Indian Express Global Desk is monitoring the situation in real-time, providing verified intelligence, satellite imagery analysis, and breaking news on the ground. Stay tuned to this live blog for minute-by-minute updates on the Iran-Israel-US war, diplomatic reactions from the UN, and the global economic fallout.
Mar 10, 2026 06:12 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Israel says it hit Iranian launcher after missile barrage
Israel retaliated against Iran, striking a missile launcher that had launched a barrage of missiles towards Israel, triggering air raid warnings across several areas. The Israeli military had earlier identified the Iranian missile fire and worked to intercept the threat.
Fortunately, Magen David Adom emergency services reported no casualties from the latest Iranian attack. This response came after Israel announced a “broad wave” of strikes on Tehran, marking the second such assault on Monday. (With inputs from agencies)

Mar 10, 2026 06:03 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: What all Trump said about Iran today?

• War Status: Trump claims the war is “very complete, pretty much” and the US is “very far ahead of schedule”.
• Iranian Oil: Trump leaves open the prospect of acquiring Iranian oil, saying “certainly people have talked about it”.
• Military Operation: Trump describes the US involvement as a “short-term” operation to “get rid of some very evil people”.
• Success and Objectives: Trump says “we’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”, aiming for an “ultimate victory”.
• Iran’s New Leader: Trump is “not happy” with Mojtaba Khamenei, but doesn’t specify a preferred alternative.
• Nuclear Weaponry: Trump wants to ensure Iran can’t develop nuclear weapons “for a very long time”.
• Remaining Targets: The US still has targets in Iran, which could be taken out “in one day”.
• War Timeline: Trump expects the war to be over “very soon"

Mar 10, 2026 05:47 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump says war could be over soon as Iran rallies behind new hardline leader
US President Donald Trump on Monday predicted the war in the Middle East could be over soon, even as Iran’s hardliners staged a show of loyalty to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a sign that it was not prepared to back down any time soon.
The conflicting signals sent markets on a rollercoaster, with oil prices surging and stock markets nosediving before swinging in the other direction after Trump’s comments and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
Khamenei, 56, a Shi’ite cleric with a power base among the security forces and their vast business empire, has been declared unacceptable by Trump, who has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender.

Mar 10, 2026 05:28 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump says he thinks the Iran war could end soon
President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end soon, as the conflict enters its second full week.
Asked by a reporter Monday whether he anticipates US military operations concluding within this week or a handful of days, Trump replied, “I think soon.”
“Look, everything they have is gone, including their leadership,” he said. “In fact, there are two levels of leadership, and even actually, as it turns out, more than that. But two levels of leadership are gone.”

Mar 10, 2026 05:23 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump ties success in war to Iran abandoning nuclear ambitions
President Donald Trump detailed his metrics for success in his war with Iran, suggesting that the country needs to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

“Where they’re not going to be starting the following day to develop a nuclear weapon, where they’ll look at that man, and some other people from the administration and say, ‘All right, we’re not going to do it,’” Trump said, referring to special envoy Steve Witkoff, who joined him at the press conference in Florida.

Mar 10, 2026 05:04 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Oil prices drop from highs after Trump comments
Oil prices dropped sharply after Donald Trump stated the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”, with Brent crude falling from $119.50 to $98.96 per barrel.
This follows a dramatic 24-hour period in global markets, with prices surging beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, triggering sell-offs in Asian and European stock indices.
Trump’s comments on CBS News, describing the war as “very complete, pretty much”, led to a market rebound, with the S&P 500 finishing higher.

Mar 10, 2026 04:54 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump weighs easing Russia sanctions, other measures to cool oil prices
US President Donald Trump is considering easing oil sanctions on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking global oil prices amid the Iran conflict, according to multiple sources.
The deliberations reflect White House worries that the surge in oil prices following more than a week of US and Israeli strikes on Iran will hurt US businesses and consumers ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s fellow Republicans hope to retain control of Congress.
Trump told reporters in Florida on Monday that his administration was lifting sanctions on some countries as part of efforts to stabilize the oil market, but declined ⁠to provide details.

Mar 10, 2026 04:49 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Australia grants asylum to 5 members of Iranian women's soccer team, official says
Australia has granted asylum to five members of the Iranian women’s soccer team who were visiting the country for a tournament when the Iran war began, Australia’s Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said on Tuesday.
The announcement followed days of urging by Iranian groups in Australia and by US President Donald Trump for the Australian government to offer help to the women, who had not spoken publicly about a wish to claim asylum. The team drew widespread speculation and news coverage in Australia when players did not sing the Iranian anthem before their first match.
In the early hours of Tuesday local time, Australian federal police officers transported five of the women from their hotel in Gold Coast, Australia “to a safe location” after they made asylum requests. There, they met with Burke and the processing of their humanitarian visas was finalised, the minister told reporters in Brisbane hours later.

Mar 10, 2026 04:43 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump says war could be over soon as Iran rallies behind new hardline leader
US President Donald Trump on Monday predicted the war in the Middle East could be over soon, even as Iran’s hardliners staged a show of loyalty to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a sign that it was not prepared to back down any time soon.
The conflicting signals sent markets on a rollercoaster, with oil prices surging and stock markets nosediving before swinging in the other direction after Trump’s comments and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy. (With inputs from Reuters)


Mar 10, 2026 04:41 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump has not revealed who he thinks should lead Iran
Trump very clearly views the new Supreme Ruler of Iran, the son of the slain Ayatollah Khamenei, as unacceptable.
But what he has yet to make clear is who his preferred option is, or how they would be able to take over the governance of the country.
At the same time, Trump says that Iran’s leadership is decimated, which begs the question of who exactly he wants to lead.
I asked Trump that, and his response is telling. He clearly wants someone internal, and said as much, explicitly saying that Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez is a model.
But many questions remain on Trump’s choice. By his own admission, many of Iran’s leaders are dead, and some moderate options have reportedly been killed in the US strikes.

Mar 10, 2026 04:27 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump says war could be over soon as Iran rallies behind new hardline leader
US President Donald Trump on Monday predicted the war in the Middle East could be over soon, even as Iran’s hardliners staged a show of loyalty to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a sign that it was not prepared to back down any time soon.
The conflicting signals sent markets on a rollercoaster, with oil prices surging and stock markets nosediving before swinging in the other direction after Trump’s comments and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
Khamenei, 56, a Shi’ite cleric with a power base among the security forces and their vast business empire, has been declared unacceptable by Trump, who has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender.
Trump said the war would continue until Iran is “totally and decisively defeated,” but predicted it would be over soon.
“It’s going to be finished pretty quickly,” he told Republican lawmakers. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said.


Mar 10, 2026 04:26 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: In 'conflicts like this, you always have death' - Trump
A reporter has asked how many US deaths Trump is willing to endure in this war, after the eighth death of a US service member in the Iran operation was announced earlier today.
“When you have conflicts like this, you always have death,” Trump responds.
The president says he met with the families of the fallen troops at Dover Air Force Base two days ago.
Trump says all of the families had the same message for him: “[they said] ‘finish the job sir, please finish the job’. And I’ll leave you at that.”
The news conference ends as the president gives the gathered reporters a thumbs-up and walks out.

Mar 10, 2026 04:23 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump says he discussed Ukraine and Iran conflicts with Putin
US President Donald Trump on Monday told reporters he had a “very ⁠good call” with Russian President Vladimir Putin about Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
“There’s tremendous hatred between President Putin and (Ukraine’s) President ⁠Zelenskyy. They can’t seem to get it together, but ‌I think it was a positive call on that subject,” Trump said.
Trump added that Putin “wants to be helpful” with the Iran conflict.

Mar 10, 2026 04:21 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump on Iran: We're close to finishing this 'excursion'
President Donald Trump on Monday ⁠said the United States was close to ⁠finishing the “excursion” – an apparent ‌reference to the US-Israeli ⁠air war ⁠on Iran – ⁠even ‌as he threatened ‌Tehran against ‌trying to stop the world’s oil supply.

Mar 10, 2026 04:20 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump has not revealed who he thinks should lead Iran
Trump very clearly views the new Supreme Ruler of Iran, the son of the slain Ayatollah Khamenei, as unacceptable.
But what he has yet to make clear is who his preferred option is, or how they would be able to take over the governance of the country.
At the same time, Trump says that Iran’s leadership is decimated, which begs the question of who exactly he wants to lead.
I asked Trump that, and his response is telling. He clearly wants someone internal, and said as much, explicitly saying that Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez is a model.
But many questions remain on Trump’s choice. By his own admission, many of Iran’s leaders are dead, and some moderate options have reportedly been killed in the US strikes.

Mar 10, 2026 12:46 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Iran to increase force and frequency of missile attacks, Revolutionary Guards say
The force and frequency of Iranian missile launches ⁠will increase, and their range will become wider, state ⁠media cited the ‌commander of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force as ⁠saying ⁠on Monday.
From ⁠now ‌on, no missiles ‌will be launched ‌with warheads lighter than one ton, Majid Mousavi said.(Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 12:42 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Five members of Iranian women’s soccer team apply for asylum in Australia after fleeing
Five members of Iranian women soccer team have allegedly applied for asylum in Australia and and are currently safe with police, CNN reported on Monday quoting sources.

Mar 10, 2026 12:21 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Oman's sultan Tariq congratulates new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba
Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said congratulated Iran’s newly chosen Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Monday, Oman’s state news agency reported.

Mar 10, 2026 12:18 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Turkey summons Iran's ambassador after 2nd missile entered its airspace
Turkey has summoned Iran’s ambassador on Monday after another missile from Tehran entered its airspace which was destroyed by NATO’s defence assets.

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Tehran to avoid any actions that “cast a shadow over our thousand-year neighbourly and brotherly ties.”

Mar 10, 2026 12:14 AM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Much of Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium likely to be in Isfahan, IAEA's chief says
Almost half of Iran’s uranium enriched to up to 60% purity was stored in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and is probably still there, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday.

The tunnel ⁠complex is the only target that appears not to have been badly damaged in attacks in June last year by Israel and the US on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Reuters reported.

Mar 9, 2026 11:52 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Putin says energy crisis has arrived but Russia is ready to work with Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the US-Israeli war on Iran had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a halt.

Putin said that Russia — the world’s second-largest oil exporter and holder of the biggest ⁠natural gas reserves — was ready to work again with European customers if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation. (Reuters)

Mar 9, 2026 11:51 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: UK carrying out missions over UAE, Britain's defence secretary says
UK’s Defence Secretary John Healey on Monday said that Britain’s jets are carrying out defensive air sorties in support of the UAE and that the jets have shot down two drones, one over Jordan, while the second was heading to Bahrain.

The UK has eight jets in Qatar and “more jets in Cyprus than any other nation,” Healey added.

Mar 9, 2026 11:39 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: 'It's too soon to talk about seizing Iran's oil,' says Donald Trump
US President Donald ⁠Trump on Monday told NBC News in an ⁠interview that ⁠it’s “too ⁠soon ⁠to ‌talk about” seizing ‌Iran’s oil.

Mar 9, 2026 11:24 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Airline shares battered, airfares surge as Iran war pushes oil above $100
Airline stocks were hammered on Monday, while airfares soared as the US-Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices surging, sparking fears of a deep travel slump and the potential for the widespread grounding of planes.

Oil prices soared 15% to above $105 a barrel, hitting levels not seen since 2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market. (Reuters)

Mar 9, 2026 10:53 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Trump to address media as war in West Asia drags on
US President Donald Trump is all set to address the media at 3am IST (5.30pm ET) from the ballroom at Trump National Doral Miami before heading to Washington DC from Florida, The Guardian reported.

Mar 9, 2026 10:49 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Angry Qatar PM Abdulrahman al Thani criticises Iranian strikes
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani got furious during an interview over neighbouring Iran’s actions and called it a “big sense of betrayal”.

During an interview with Sky News on Monday, the Qatari PM said, “It is a big sense of betrayal. Just an hour after the start of the war, Qatar and other Gulf countries have been attacked. We made clear that we were not going to take part in any wars against our neighbours.”

Mar 9, 2026 10:40 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Two members of UAE armed forces killed in helicopter crash, ministry says
Two members of ⁠the UAE’s armed forces ⁠were killed ‌on Monday in ⁠a helicopter ⁠crash ⁠caused ‌by a technical ‌malfunction, ‌the defense ministry said in a statement.

In a post on X, the ministry wrote, “The UAE Ministry of Defence announces the martyrdom of two members of the Armed Forces following a helicopter crash due to a technical malfunction while performing their national duty in the country today, Monday, March 9, 2026.”

Mar 9, 2026 10:22 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Bengaluru restaurants threaten city-wide shutdown amid reports of commercial cylinders shortage
With the West Asia crisis contuining, the Bruhat Bengaluru Hotel Owners Association on Monday threatened to shut down restaurants across the city if the supply of commercial cylinders is stopped.

Association President PC Rao said the restuarants were not getting commercial cylinders and the government must interevene to ensure the supply.

Mar 9, 2026 10:15 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: For stranded UK passengers in Dubai, flight to leave today
The UK government has provided an update for the British citizens stranded in Dubai and said that a government chartered flight is poised to leave Dubai later today “subject to the situation on the groun

Mar 9, 2026 10:12 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War Live Updates: Iran President Pezeshkian praises new Supreme Leader Mojtaba
Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian has praised the appointment of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, following the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.

In a post on X, Pezeshkian wrote, “The valuable choice of Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei is a manifestation of the people’s will in governance. The resolution of the country’s problems can be achieved through his wise leadership and by creating an environment based on trust and public participation.”

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?​

13 hours ago
BBC

Anadolu via Getty Images
Conflict across the Middle East has entered a second week after the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran, killing the country's supreme leader on 28 February.
Iran has continued to respond by launching attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf, which have extended to non-military targets, including civilian sites and energy facilities.
The fighting has escalated quickly, pulling in Cyprus and Lebanon, with casualties and damage mounting on all sides.
Oil price passes $100 a barrel for first time since 2022 as Starmer warns of Iran war's economic impact

What has been happening in Iran?​

Watch: Huge flames in Tehran after Israeli strikes on oil refineries
The US and Israel first launched an attack on Iran on 28 February, targeting its missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership in the capital, Tehran, and across the country.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led the country since 1989, was killed during the first wave of strikes. Israel's military said dozens more senior figures in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were also killed.
Following Khamanei's death, on 8 March his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed as his successor.
The US and Israel have continued to target key sites linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Iran has repeatedly insisted its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.
The two have also ramped up attacks on Iranian oil refineries in recent days.

Who is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader?​

Iran's ambassador to the UN said on 6 March that more than 1,300 people had been killed in the country since the war broke out. The US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) group reported a day later that at least 1,205 civilians had been killed.
Iran accused the US and Israel of launching an attack on a girls' school near an IRGC base in southern Iran on 28 February, saying more than 160 people were killed.
The US said it was looking into reports about the incident, while Israel said it was "not aware" of any military operations in the area.
Internet connectivity in Iran has been almost entirely restricted and its airspace has been closed.
Outside its territory, an Iranian warship was also sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near the coast of Sri Lanka. At least 87 people were killed.
'Night turned into day': Iranians tell of strikes on oil depots
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clygpxq41l3o
Iran school and nearby military base struck multiple times, satellite image reveals
The final voyage of the Iranian warship sunk by the US
Where has Iran attacked?
Iran has described the US and Israeli strikes as "unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate", and has carried out widespread missile and drone attacks in response.
The IRGC said it had targeted Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere.
Iran has been accused of widening its attacks to include other targets, including shipping and civilian sites, such as hotels in Dubai.
There have also been strikes in countries hosting US bases - Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait - and US-allied Oman and Saudi Arabia.
At least 10 people have been killed across the Gulf so far, most of them security personnel or foreign workers.
Of the Gulf states, Bahrain has reported the highest number of casualties from a single strike on 9 March in which 23 civilians were reported injured, including four children.
The week prior, drones hit the US embassy in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh, and a drone also hit a car park adjacent to the US consulate in Dubai.
Iraq said it had been struck by Iran on 6 March after explosions at Erbil airport, while two days earlier Turkey said it had shot down an Iranian missile over its airspace. Azerbaijan accused Iran of attacking an airport with drones.

The US and its Arab allies issued a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks, saying "the targeting of civilians and of countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilising behaviour".
Elsewhere, a British military base in Cyprus was struck by a drone, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, which the Cypriot president blamed on Iran. Western officials later said the drone was not launched from Iran.
As of Sunday 8 March, seven US servicemen had been killed in total.
On 7 March, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian broadcast a video message on Iranian state television apologising to neighbouring countries that were attacked.
Pezeshkian said Iran did "not intend to invade neighbouring countries" and said the leadership has issued a decision to the armed forced that "from now on, do not attack neighbouring countries unless attacked first". 'All red lines have been crossed': Gulf states weigh response to Iranian strikes
What's happening in Lebanon?

AFP via Getty Images
A new front in the war opened in Lebanon on 2 March when the militant group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions.
Israel launched attacks in response, hitting Beirut and parts of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah is allied to Iran's government and said it was seeking to avenge Khamenei's assassination.
In Israel, the defence minister said on 3 March ground troops would "advance and seize additional strategic areas in Lebanon" in order to stop attacks from Hezbollah.
Israel launched a "broad-scale wave" of strikes against Beirut overnight on 6 March, saying it struck Hezbollah command centres and a facility storing drones in the capital's southern suburb of Dahieh.
As of 8 March, Lebanon's health ministry said the attacks had killed more than 390 people since the war front began, including 83 children.
More than 100,000 people have been forced to flee their homes since the escalation of hostilities, Lebanon's social affairs minister said.
The Israeli military also reported two of its soldiers had been killed as of 8 March.

Why have the US and Israel attacked Iran?​

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz described the first strikes on 28 February as a "pre-emptive strike" to "remove threats against the state of Israel", although he did not explain why there was a need to take military action at this time.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday the US knew there was going to be Israeli action, which meant America had to act "pre-emptively" in the face of expected Iranian attacks on American forces.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Brig Gen Effie Defrin revealed that the military operation was preceded by months of strategic deception that caught Iran off guard.
In the US, some lawmakers have called for President Donald Trump's administration to provide evidence that Iran posed a threat before Washington went to war.
But there are also underlying reasons.
Israel and the US - its closest ally - have been arch-foes of Iran since the Islamic revolution in 1979. The Iranian leadership has consistently called for Israel's elimination and denounced the US as its greatest enemy.
The two countries have led Western opposition to Iran's nuclear programme, claiming Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear bomb - something Iran has vehemently denied.
They attacked Iranian nuclear and military sites in June 2025 in a war which lasted for 12 days.
Since then, they have claimed Iran has been trying to rebuild its nuclear programme and develop missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Trump said these missiles could eventually reach the US, though this has not been supported by US intelligence assessments.
For its part, Israel considers Iran a threat to its existence and wants the complete removal of Iran's nuclear and missile programme, as well as regime change.
The US first openly talked in January about potentially attacking Iran when its security forces cracked down on protesters with deadly force.
But the US and Iran began negotiations and appeared to be making progress until Trump said he was "not happy" with the way the talks were going on 27 February. Hours later, the US and Israel began attacking.
On 6 March, Trump said there would be "no deal" with Iran unless it agreed to an "unconditional surrender.
The following day, in response to Pezeshkian's television statement, Trump said the Iranian leader had "apologised and surrendered ... because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack" but added later in his Truth Social post, "today Iran will be hit very hard!"

How is the war affecting the economy and energy prices?​

Instability in the Middle East has begun to impact the global economy.
Iran has been accused of attacking ships in the Gulf, forcing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz - a key artery accounting for about 20% of global oil and gas supply.
Attacks have also been reported on major oil and gas hubs, including in Oman's Duqm commercial port and the UAE's Fujairah terminal.
The strikes have prompted some of the world's largest producers of oil and gas to suspend production, including Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities and Saudi Arabia's largest domestic refinery.
Oil and gas prices have surged, prompting warnings about the impact on the global economy and cost of living.
Trump said on 3 March that the US navy would protect ships in the region "if necessary" and "at a very reasonable price" in a bid to stop global energy supply issues.
A tanker off the coast of Kuwait was hit by a "large explosion", causing an oil spill, British maritime security agency UKMTO said on March 5.

​

Is it safe to travel to the region and how long could the war last?​

Trump first said military action was expected to last "four to five weeks" but on 7 March White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the operations could last up to six weeks.
A day later, Trump told Israeli newspaper The Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war would be decided mutually with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of war that the campaign would "continue as long as it is needed".
The war prompted one of the most serious disruptions to global travel since the Covid-19 pandemic, with airspace closures and thousands of flights grounded across the Middle East.
On 6 March, airline Etihad announced it would begin operating limited flights from Abu Dhabi to London, Manchester, Barcelona, Brussels, Dublin, Rome, Paris, and Milan.
Emirates also resumed some flights, following the partial re-opening of regional airspace.
Airspace in Qatar partially reopened on 7 March, in response Qatar Airways said it intended to operate repatriation flights. It resumed limited operations to and from Doha on 8 March.
The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said anyone planning to travel to the Middle East should check its website for advice relating to their destination.
The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, says intensifying violence across the Middle East and beyond has already triggered significant population movement.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Six ways the Iran war could affect you - in cha​

Getty Images
The eruption of the US-Israel war with Iran has brought with it consequences that extend far beyond the Middle East.
The region plays a key role in global energy supplies and shipping routes, prompting concerns that everything from heating bills to supermarket shopping baskets could become more expensive.
Here are five ways the conflict might affect your day-to-day life.

1. Petrol and diesel prices start to increase​

The crisis has caused an immediate rise in fuel prices, as production and transport of oil and gas across the region has slowed or stopped entirely in many cases, but it is unclear how this may play out over the coming weeks and months.
As of last Monday in the UK, petrol cost an average of 132.14p per litre at the pump while diesel cost an average of 142.15p per litre, weekly government figures show.
Meanwhile, the most recent data from the RAC motoring organisation shows that since the war began, average UK petrol prices have risen by 4.68p to 137.51p a litre. Diesel has increased by 8.59p to 150.97p.
In the US, average petrol prices had risen to $3.02 (£2.26p) per gallon last Tuesday from $2.94 per gallon the Tuesday before the war started, while diesel had risen from $3.81 to $3.90 over the same period.
These early increases are well below those seen in 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In the week before the invasion, unleaded petrol cost an average of 147.77p per litre in the UK. Less than fourth months later, in early July, it had jumped by more than 43p per litre.
In the US, prices for petrol and diesel peaked at over $5 a gallon in June 2022.

2. UK gas prices double in just over a week​

UK gas prices have doubled since the beginning of the conflict.
The benchmark UK price was below 80p before the conflict began. It briefly hit 171p a therm when trading started on Monday, before slipping back to about 156p a therm.
There have been concerns the current crisis could have a similar impact to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but so far the UK gas price is significantly below the peak of more than 600p a therm experienced in 2022.
That unprecedented rise prompted the UK government to step in with an energy bills support scheme — giving millions of households £400 off their energy bills for the winter of 2022-23.
UK consumers are protected from any immediate change in global gas prices by the energy price cap, which is in place at its current level until July.
But if gas prices stay high, this could translate to a higher price cap for the summer.

3. Impact of shipping prices could hit consumers later​

Traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped after Iran threatened to "set fire" to ships, with about 200 tankers effectively stranded.
Meanwhile, insurance premiums, particularly on vessels considered American, British, or Israeli, have risen significantly because of the perceived higher risk of attack.
Last week, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed the cost of hiring a supertanker to move oil from the Middle East to China reached an all-time high of more than $400,000 (£298,300) per day, almost double the cost the previous week.
Sanne Manders, president of logistics technology platform Flexport, says rising fuel costs means carriers are likely to start raising rates globally, not just in the Middle East, as transport becomes more expensive.
The vast majority of the world's traded goods are transported by sea. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), shipping costs are an "important driver of inflation".
But while rises can affect prices of imports at the dock within a few months, the impact on prices at the cash register "builds up more gradually, hitting its peak after 12 months", it said in analysis from 2022.
The IMF said last week it was "too early" to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the region and globally, as this will depend on its extent and duration.

4. Fertiliser prices up almost a quarter​

Fertilisers are a crucial part of food production. They are relied upon by farmers to give crops the nutrients they need to grow enough food, and the Middle East is a major producer of key fertiliser ingredients.
The Strait of Hormuz waterway is a key route for fertiliser and for natural gas which is used to produce fertilisers. The halting of traffic there has prompted fears of shortages and increased prices.
In addition, QatarEnergy, one of the world's biggest exporters of gas and a producer of urea for use in fertiliser, has stopped production following "military attacks" on its facilities.
The benchmark US price of urea hit $578 a tonne on Monday, soaring by almost a quarter. Experts say it is too early to tell if the rise in fertiliser prices will translate to higher prices on supermarket shelves and that any change wouldn't be instant.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx2jyv8j8gwt
5. Flights could become more expensive

The Gulf is where Europe gets around half of its jet fuel from. As such, since the fighting in the region began, the European benchmark jet fuel price has almost doubled, going from $830 per tonne to more than $1,500.
These are the highest prices the industry has seen since 2022, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Fuel typically makes up 20-40% of airlines' operating costs. This means flights could become more expensive, while any shortage of fuel could mean some flight cancellations.
However, the impact might not be equal across the board.
Many airlines, such as British Airways and EasyJet, use contracts to get their fuel at fixed or capped prices for months, or even years, in advance.
By contrast, a number of large US carriers do not do this and could be exposed to short-term price increases as a result.
6. Inflation's downward trend less certain


Inflation, the rate that prices rise, has been falling in the UK and globally in recent months.
In February, UK inflation fell to 3% and the Bank of England (BoE) said before the current conflict it believed inflation could reach its 2% target by as soon as April.
In the US, inflation eased to 2.4% in January, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while the Eurozone was expected to see a rise from 1.7% in January to 1.9% in February, after sustained falls.
There are concerns the war could reverse the overall downward trend, meaning prices would rise at a faster rate for consumers.
If that happens, central banks across the world may be less likely to cut interest rates in the months ahead, as they try to curb rising prices.
Analysts are now speculating there may be fewer cuts than expected this year in the UK, and some are predicting a rise.
This would mean more expensive mortgage rates for people on deals that "track" the BoE's rate and for those fixing new deals. On the other hand, banks could pass on any increased rates to savers who would get higher returns on their money.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy8e978xl8o

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Israel launches more strikes on Iran and Lebanon, US hits 16 Iranian mine-laying ships. Iran launched new attacks today at Israel and Gulf Arab countries as it kept up pressure on the Middle East in a war started by Israel and the US that has rattled world markets and shows no signs of a letup. Mar 11, 2026 06:37 AM IST​

A Sri Lanka Navy vessel approaches an Iranian vessel during a rescue operation, after the crew of a distressed Iranian military ship, IRIS Dena were assisted in waters south of Sri Lanka, off the coast of Colombo. (REUTERS)
The conflict in the Middle East escalated to a ferocious new level on Tuesday as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the “most intense day of strikes” inside Iran since the war began eleven days ago. Even as the Pentagon ramped up its aerial campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pivoted the war’s rhetoric toward total victory, declaring that the objective is now the popular overthrow of the Iranian government.
“We are breaking their bones,” Netanyahu told health officials in Jerusalem, asserting that the campaign aims to empower the Iranian people to “cast off the yoke of tyranny.” In Tehran, the mood remains one of fierce defiance. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf dismissed any rumours of a ceasefire, vowing to “punch the mouth” of the aggressors to end the cycle of negotiation.

What are the current developments? Here are 5 updates​

1. Pentagon escalation: Defence Secretary Hegseth confirmed Tuesday is the peak of the US air campaign, despite noting that Iranian missile fire reached its lowest volume in 24 hours.
2. Gulf under fire: Intercepts were reported over Qatar and the UAE. In Bahrain, a missile struck a residential building in Manama, killing a 29-year-old woman.
3. Maritime terror: The UK military warned of a probable attack on a bulk carrier off the coast of Abu Dhabi, signalling an expansion of Iran’s naval targeting.
4. Energy chokehold: The Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) vowed that “not a single liter of oil” will leave the Persian Gulf, directly defying President Trump’s earlier threats of massive retaliation.
5. Global fallout: Egypt hiked fuel prices by up to 17%, while Thailand and Vietnam have urged citizens to work from home and limit vehicle use to conserve dwindling supplies.

Global energy crisis deepens​

The economic ripples of the conflict are now crashing into kitchen tables worldwide. In India, a shortage of commercial LPG cylinders has left restaurants in Mumbai and Bengaluru struggling to stay open. Meanwhile, the G7 nations are convening an emergency video call this afternoon to discuss the coordinated release of strategic oil stocks to blunt the “war premium” that has kept prices volatile.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global inventories are “eroding fast” as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. While Saudi Arabia is racing to bring its East-West pipeline to maximum capacity (7 million barrels per day) to bypass the chokepoint, experts warn it may not be enough to stabilise a market deprived of 20% of the world’s daily oil flow.
One Week of War: Key Events — Feb 28 to March 9, 2025
Chronology of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and its escalating regional fallout
28 Feb U.S. and Israel launch coordinated attack on Iran — war begins. American and Israeli forces strike Iran in a coordinated military operation. Iranian counter-attacks begin almost immediately across multiple theatres.
Day 1 · War Begins 28 Feb Missile hits Minab primary school — 175 schoolgirls & staff killed

A strike on a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, kills 175 schoolgirls and staff on the war's first day — the single deadliest civilian attack of the opening week, per Iranian Red Crescent Society.
Civilian Deaths · Iran

Iranian missile strikes Sweida, Syria — 4 killed
An Iranian missile hits a building in the southern Syrian city of Sweida, killing four people, according to Syrian state news agency SANA.
Regional Spillover · Syria 1 Mar Iranian missile hits Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem — 9 civilians killed

Nine of Israel's 11 civilian deaths in the first week come from a single Iranian missile strike on Beit Shemesh, a city near Jerusalem, per Israel's Magen David Adom ambulance service.
Civilian Deaths · Israel Early Mar Iran strikes Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases — 15 killed

Iranian missiles and projectiles hit UAE (4 dead), Saudi Arabia (2), Bahrain (2, incl. Manama residential building), Kuwait (6, incl. a child), and a tanker off Oman's coast (1) — drawing all U.S. base-hosting nations in the Gulf into the conflict.
Gulf Escalation · 5 States Hit 5 Mar U.S. airstrike kills Islamic Resistance in Iraq commander

A commander of the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq — an umbrella group of armed factions — is killed in a strike on his vehicle, per Reuters sources. Iraq's overall death toll stands at 15.
Targeted Strike · Iraq Wk 1 Mar Hezbollah re-enters conflict; IDF reports first soldier deaths Lebanon's Hezbollah resumes attacks on Israel in solidarity with Iran. Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill at least 486. Two Israeli soldiers are killed in southern Lebanon — the first IDF fatalities since hostilities with Hezbollah resumed.
Lebanon Front · 488 Killed Wk 1 Mar

U.S. submarine sinks Iranian warship off Sri Lanka — 104 killed . The Iranian army reports 104 deaths after a U.S. submarine sinks an Iranian warship in waters off Sri Lanka's coast. These deaths are additional to the Red Crescent Society's 1,230+ toll for Iran.
War at Sea · Indian Ocean 9 Mar Confirmed death toll reaches 1,770+ across 11 countries

More than ten days after the war began, confirmed deaths span Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, the U.S., Kuwait, Syria, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. Reuters has not independently verified the figures.
Mar 11, 2026 12:30 AM IST
Israel not seeking endless war with Iran, foreign minister says. Israel is not seeking an endless war with Iran and will coordinate with the United States on when to end the fighting, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Tuesday, declining to publicly state a timeline for when the conflict could end. Turmoil has spread throughout the Middle East since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran 11 days ago, with Tehran carrying out attacks across the region in response, and fighting expanding to Lebanon where ⁠Israel is now battling Hezbollah.– Reuters

Mar 11, 2026 12:20 AM IST About 140 US troops injured, 8 severely, so far in Iran war, Pentagon says
The Pentagon on Tuesday said about 140 US service members have been wounded in conflict with Iran. “The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in an emailed statement. Eight are currently “severely injured,” Parnell added.

Mar 11, 2026 12:19 AM IST US urges Israel to stop attacks on Iran energy sites, report says. The United States has asked Israel to halt strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Axios ⁠reported on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the matter. Washington sent the message at a senior political ⁠level and to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal ‌Zamir, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official. (Reuters)

Mar 11, 2026 12:10 AM IST British Airways announces cancellation of flight to Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai, Tel Aviv. British Airways has announced cancellation of flight to Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Tel Aviv until “later this month” amid the prevailing situation in West Asia. The British Airways informed about the development in a post on X.

Mar 11, 2026 12:01 AM IST US military moving to dismantle Iran's missile infrastructure, White House says
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday said that US military is moving to dismantle Iran’s missile production infrastructure as war in West Asia intensifies.
Mar 10, 2026 11:57 PM IST US seeing signs that Iran preparing to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz
US intelligence has started ⁠seeing indications that Iran is ⁠taking steps ‌to deploy mines in ⁠the ⁠Strait ⁠of ‌Hormuz, CBS News reported on Tuesday.

Mar 10, 2026 11:48 PM IST US military has not escorted any ships through Strait of Hormuz, official says
The US military has not escorted any ships ⁠through the Strait of Hormuz so far, ⁠a US official told Reuters ‌on Tuesday, after US Energy Secretary Chris ⁠Wright ⁠posted and ⁠deleted ‌a tweet that ‌had said the US ‌Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the ⁠strait.

Mar 10, 2026 11:32 PM IST US stocks hold steadier as Wall Street waits for the next signal on how long war with Iran may last. The US stock market is holding steadier Tuesday as Wall Street waits for the next signal on when the war with Iran may end. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, a day after its latest wild swings caused by extreme moves in the oil market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 313 points, or 0.7%, as of 1:43 pm ET, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.6% higher. (AP)


Mar 10, 2026 11:28 PM IST State Department allows up to $40 million to be used for evacuation flights for Americans in Middle East. The State Department has authorized the use of up to $40 million in emergency funds to pay for evacuation charter flights for Americans to leave the Middle East because of disruptions in transportation caused by the Iran war. The department had approved the use of money from a fund normally reserved for emergencies involving diplomatic and consular staff, according to two US officials.– AP

Mar 10, 2026 11:16 PM IST US energy secretary deletes post about Navy escorting vessel through Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of Energy ⁠Chris Wright on Tuesday deleted a post on ⁠X which had said the ‌US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker ⁠through the ⁠Strait of Hormuz “to ⁠ensure ‌oil remains flowing ‌to global markets.”

Mar 10, 2026 10:28 PM IST
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday his country would keep fighting as long as necessary, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s insistence the previous day that the conflict would be over “soon.”m And the Islamic Republic’s security chief, Ali Larijani, dismissed Trump’s “empty” threats, insisting that the people of Iran did not fear them. “Even those greater than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation,” Larijani warned Trump on X. “Watch out for yourself — lest you be eliminated.”
The remarks from Araghchi, who also ruled out negotiations with Washington, came as Tehran launched a new wave of attacks on US-allied Gulf nations, hours after Trump’s assurances of a swift end to the rapidly widening conflict. (Times of Israel)


Mar 10, 2026 09:53 PM IST Reliance Industries says maximizing LPG output India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, said on Tuesday it is maximising ⁠production of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG) and diverting its locally-produced natural gas for priority sectors. India has invoked ⁠emergency measures and is restricting ‌the use of natural gas to priority sectors after the disruption of liquefied natural gas shipments through ⁠the ⁠Strait of Hormuz due to the ⁠conflict in ‌the Middle East. Last week ‌India asked its refiners to ‌boost LPG production to overcome any shortage of cooking gas in the country. India ⁠buys most of its LPG and LNG ‌from ⁠the Middle East.(Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 09:07 PM IST
British Airways cancels Dubai, Abu Dhabi flights British Airways has cancelled multiple flights to the Middle East due to ongoing airspace instability. Flights to Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai, and Tel Aviv are suspended until March 28, while services to Abu Dhabi remain on hold until later this year. The airline is closely monitoring the situation and offering affected passengers a range of options. Limited seats are available on repatriation flights from Muscat to London Heathrow on 11 and 12 March for existing bookings. Beyond these dates, flights will pause due to reduced demand but will remain under continuous review. (Gulf News)

Mar 10, 2026 09:02 PM IST
Israeli military says missiles launched from Iran towards Israel
The Israeli military says it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israeli territory. In a statement, the army said defence systems were working to intercept the threat. (Al Jazeera)

Mar 10, 2026 09:00 PM IST Oil prices plummets by over $10 a barrel. Oil prices plummeted by more than $10 a barrel Tuesday after soaring to an almost four-year high in the previous session after US President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, lowering expectations of prolonged disruptions to oil supply. Brent futures were down $10.45, or 10.6%, at $88.51 a barrel by 1504 GMT (11:04 am EDT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $10.61, or 11.2%, at $84.16. Oil surged to more than $119 a ⁠barrel on Monday to its highest since mid-2022 as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies. Prices later retreated after Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a call and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide.(Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 08:13 PM IST
Trump claims war is ‘pretty much’ over, but Pentagon says ‘we’ve only just begun’.Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Tuesday after Iran launched a coordinated wave of drone and missile strikes across the Persian Gulf. The attacks came amid conflict involving the United States and Israel, raising fears of a wider regional confrontation. The strikes occurred even as US President Donald Trump suggested that the war might be nearing its end, creating confusion over the actual state of the conflict. Read the full story here

Mar 10, 2026 07:57 PM IST. Tehran says bodies of sailors killed in warship sinking to be repatriated
Iran said the bodies of dozens of sailors killed when the US attacked and sank its frigate Dena will soon be returned to the country. In a statement reported by Iran’s Fars News Agency, the army’s public relations office said 84 of 104 bodies had been identified and would soon be transferred back to Iran.
The statement said the repatriation was being carried out with the efforts of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the cooperation of the Sri Lankan government. (Al Jazeera)


Mar 10, 2026 07:54 PM IST: 'Your family is not alone', UAE ambassador to India reassures parents of Indian residents. Abdulnasser Alshaali, Ambassador of the UAE to India, reassured Indian families that their children and relatives who reside in the UAE are safe, and cared for. As reported by ANI, Abdulnasser said “To the mother in Kerala watching the news at, midnight, to the father in Gujarat refreshing his phone, waiting to hear from his son in Dubai, let me be extremely clear. Your family in the UAE is not alone.”
The ambassador added that Indian PM Modi’s response was immediate; he called UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan directly. “He did that because he understood that the 4 million Indians living in the UAE deserve to know that their Prime Minister was personally engaged, personally watching, and personally in contact with the leadership of the country they call home,” the ambassador said (Khaleej Times)

Mar 10, 2026 06:49 PM IST .Netherlands moves Iran embassy staff to Azerbaijan The Netherlands will temporarily move its embassy staff in Iran ⁠to Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister Tom Berendsen said on Tuesday, ⁠citing safety concerns over the ‌US-Israeli war on Iran. “Due to increasing risks to ⁠the ⁠safety of our ⁠staff, ‌it has been decided ‌to temporarily relocate the ‌activities of the Dutch embassy in Iran to Baku, ⁠Azerbaijan,” Berendsen wrote on ‌X.(Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 05:54 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War News Live Updates: 'Tuesday will be most intense day of strikes on Iran', says Pentagon chief Hegseth.US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said ⁠Tuesday would be the most intense day ⁠of strikes against Iran ‌in the campaign so far. Speaking with ⁠reporters, ⁠Hegseth, who is also the Pentagon chief, said ⁠Tuesday ‌would bring the ‌most fighter jets ‌and bombers against Iran. (Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 05:49 PM IST : If Tehran survives US-Israeli aggression, it could influence long-term Iran-Arab ties, expert explains. The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its 11th day. Tehran has continued its barrage of drones and missiles aimed at US bases across all Gulf states which are being used for continued US-Israeli strikes on Iran. On Saturday (March 7), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to Arab states for the damage incurred and reiterated that Tehran had “no intention of aggression against them”, as Iran has consistently maintained. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reiterated this, with a commitment to respecting Arab sovereignty..

US flip flop on Iran: Trump claims war is ‘pretty much’ over, but Pentagon says ‘we’ve only just begun.’ Trump also offered conflicting assessments of Iran’s remaining military power. : Mar 10, 2026 07:59 PM IST​

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Tuesday after Iran launched a coordinated wave of drone and missile strikes across the Persian Gulf. The attacks came amid conflict involving the United States and Israel, raising fears of a wider regional confrontation. The strikes occurred even as US President Donald Trump suggested that the war might be nearing its end, creating confusion over the actual state of the conflict.

Trump claims war is close to ending​

Speaking in an interview and press conference, Trump said US military operations had severely weakened Iran’s forces and were progressing faster than anticipated. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump said in an interview with CBS News, adding that the campaign was “very far ahead” of the four-to-five-week timeline he had earlier suggested.
He also claimed that strikes carried out by the United States and Israel had heavily damaged Iran’s military capabilities.

Conflicting messages​

Despite Trump’s remarks suggesting the war was nearly over, messages from US defence officials indicated a different reality.
A rapid response account from the US Defence Department posted on X that the United States had “only just begun to fight,” echoing earlier comments by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said in a television interview that the conflict was only in its early stages.
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Trump himself later delivered more forceful remarks while speaking to House Republicans in Florida.
“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said. “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory,” Trump added.
At a subsequent news conference, he added that the United States would not stop until the enemy was “totally and decisively defeated.”

Claims about Iran’s military strength​

Trump also offered conflicting assessments of Iran’s remaining military power. In one interview, he claimed that Iran had effectively lost all its military capabilities. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force,” he said, adding that Iran had “shot everything they have to shoot.”
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However, during the same news conference, he appeared to soften those claims, saying “most of Iran’s naval power has been sunk” and that the country’s missile capacity had been reduced to “about 10 percent,” according to CNN reports.
He also suggested that Iran’s drone capabilities had dropped significantly and could soon be eliminated.

Disputed comments on Iran’s leadership​

Trump’s comments about Iran’s leadership were similarly inconsistent. At one point, he said Iran had lost all of its leadership, but later clarified that “two levels of leadership are gone.”
Iran recently appointed the late Khamenei’s second-eldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as its new supreme leader following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump said he was disappointed by the choice, suggesting it would lead to “more of the same problem for the country.”
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Controversy over school bombing remarks​

Trump also faced scrutiny over remarks he made about a deadly strike on an elementary school in Iran.
Over the weekend, he suggested that Iran itself was responsible for the attack, despite reports indicating the strike may have involved a US weapon.
When pressed about the claim at a later news conference, Trump softened his stance, saying he did not have enough information and that the incident was still under investigation.
“I just didn’t know enough about it,” he said, adding that he would accept the findings of the investigation once they were released.

Mar 10, 2026 05:23 PM IST
Australia grants asylum to 5 members of Iranian women's soccer team. Australia granted asylum to five members of the Iranian women’s soccer team who were visiting the country for a tournament when the Iran war began, a government minister said Tuesday. The announcement followed days of urging by Iranian groups in Australia and by US President Donald Trump for the Australian government to help the women, who had not spoken publicly about a wish to claim asylum. The team drew speculation and news coverage in Australia when players didn’t sing the Iranian anthem before their first match. Early Tuesday, police officers transported five of the women from their hotel in Gold Coast, Australia, “to a safe location” after they made asylum requests. There, they met with Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and the processing of their humanitarian visas was finalised.“I don’t want to begin to imagine how difficult that decision is for each of the individual women, but certainly last night it was joy, it was relief,” said Burke, who posted photos to social media of the women smiling and clapping as he signed documents. “People were very excited about embarking on a life in Australia. (AP)

Mar 10, 2026 04:58 PM IST
UAE air defences dealing with missile threat; residents urged to stay in safe place
The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority of the UAE said air defence systems are currently responding to a missile threat. It urged residents to remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates.(Gulf News)

Mar 10, 2026 04:31 PM IST
Turkey tells Tehran violation of its airspace 'unacceptable'
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in a call ⁠Tuesday that the violation of Turkey’s airspace by Iranian ballistic missiles was ⁠unacceptable, a Turkish Foreign Ministry ‌source said.
The source said Araqchi told Fidan that Tehran had conducted a ⁠wide investigation ⁠into the missiles, adding ⁠Fidan ‌reiterated Turkey’s demand for ‌all sides to refrain from ‌steps that could put civilians at risk and told Araqchi that ⁠Ankara would take measures against missiles ‌targeting ⁠it.
(Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 03:53 PM IST
Putin’s Tehran proposals still on table, says Kremlin The Kremlin said Russian ⁠President ⁠Vladimir Putin, who on Monday, held a call with US President Donald Trump, has offered different options to mediate ⁠and reduce tensions in ⁠the war. Speaking to reporters, spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined ⁠to offer details ⁠on the specifics of ⁠the “considerations” that Putin raised on the call, but said these proposals are still on the table. Russia is ready to provide any help it can to reduce the ⁠tensions in the Middle ⁠East, Peskov said. (Al Jazeera)

Mar 10, 2026 03:13 PM IST
Ramadan prayers continue in Bahrain despite nearby explosions. Worshippers at a mosque in Bahrain continued performing the Ramadan night prayers, known as Taraweeh, even as loud explosions were heard nearby. The country is among several Gulf states targeted by Iran following strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel in late February.


Mar 10, 2026 02:54 PM IST
US-Israel vs Iran War News Live Updates: 'We are breaking their bones,' Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu
Bringing down the regime in Iran is in the hands of the Iranian people, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to throw off the yoke of tyranny,” said Netanyahu during a visit late last night to the National Health Emergency Operations Center.
“Ultimately, it depends on them. But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far we are breaking their bones — and our arm is still outstretched.”

A protester holds a banner with pictures of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they hold a rally in solidarity with Iran in Quezon city, Philippines on March 2, 2026. (AP)

“If we succeed together with the Iranian people, we will bring about a permanent end — if such things exist in the life of nations — and we will bring about change,” said Netanyahu. He added that there is already a “tremendous change” in Israel’s standing in the world. (Times of Israel)
Mar 10, 2026 02:40 PM IST
Tehran ahead of schedule on war goals, says ambassador to France
Israel is ahead of schedule in achieving its war goals in Iran, its ambassador to France said Tuesday, adding that the operation aims to weaken Iran’s authorities to curb attacks beyond its borders and allow its people to shape their own future. “When ⁠we were asked at the start of this war about its duration, we said it would last a few weeks. That hasn’t changed,” Joshua Zarka told BFM TV. “We are ahead of schedule ⁠to achieve our war objectives.” Zarka, formerly Israel’s lead diplomat on Iran, said the goals ‌extend beyond ending Iran’s nuclear programme. They include weakening the government to the point that its population can “take its fate into its own hands,” and ensuring Tehran can no longer mount attacks beyond its borders. Asked about the ⁠appointment of ⁠Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, Zarka said that if he follows ⁠his ‌father Ali Khamenei’s positions, he “would also be on a list of ‌those who should be eliminated.” (Reuters)

Mar 10, 2026 02:28 PM IST. Pakistani warships escort country’s merchant vessels in Middle East
Pakistani warships were escorting the country’s merchant vessels in the Middle East Tuesday, as the conflict in Iran choked off oil tanker traffic and prompted President Trump to warn of even more aggressive US action if Iranian leaders continue trying to cut off access to energy supplies.
Fighting has slowed ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for about one-fifth of the world’s oil. Pakistan, which heavily relies on energy imports from the Gulf, said on Monday that it had sent warships to accompany merchant vessels to ensure its access to energy supplies. (NYT)

Mar 10, 2026 01:47 PM IST
Iran’s Army claims attack on Israeli energy infrastructure in Haifa
The Iranian Army has issued a statement claiming that it launched a drone attack targeting an Israeli oil and gas refinery and fuel tanks in Haifa, according to Tasnim news agency.(Reuters)

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Amidst escalating tensions in West Asia, Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively calling for de-escalation and political resolution, engaging with Iranian and US counterparts to navigate the complex conflict landscape.

IMAGE: This was the second phone conversation this week between Putin and Pezeshkian. Photograph: Reuters

Key Points​

• Vladimir Putin urges swift de-escalation of conflict in West Asia during a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
• Russia reaffirms its commitment to resolving the West Asia conflict through political means and offers humanitarian aid to Iran.
• Moscow actively seeks de-escalation through interaction with all parties, given its vital interests in the Gulf States.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discusses de-escalation with his Iranian counterpart, emphasising Russia's readiness to facilitate a political settlement.
• Putin offered mediation services from the start of the conflict, but multilateral understanding is needed for effective mediation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday called for a swift de-escalation in West Asia in a call with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin said.

The call came as the United States, Israel, and Iran maintain a cycle of retaliatory strikes, including on neighbouring Gulf nations.
"The Russian President reaffirmed his principled position in favour of a swift de-escalation of the conflict and its resolution through political means. Pezeshkian thanked Russia for its support, particularly for providing humanitarian aid to Iran," the Kremlin said without giving further details.

This was the second phone conversation this week between Putin and Pezeshkian. Moscow, which has vital interests in the Gulf States, has been actively interacting with all parties to seek de-escalation of the crisis amid the conflict in West Asia.

Diplomatic Efforts to Resolve the Conflict​

Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also discussed the situation with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.

"Lavrov once again set forth the Russian side's principled position in favour of de-escalating the conflict as soon as possible and resuming the process of a political and diplomatic peace settlement.

"The Russian side is invariably ready to facilitate this process, with due consideration for security interests of Iran and its regional neighbours," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a release posted on its web portal.
On Monday night, US President Donald Trump called Putin to discuss the situation in West Asia and Ukraine.

According to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, the two leaders discussed the conflicts between the US and Iran and between Russia and Ukraine during an hour-long telephonic conversation.

Russia's Role as a Potential Mediator​

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not specify what proposals Putin put forward for settling the Iran conflict during his hour-long phone call with Trump.

"No, I am not at liberty to elaborate at the moment. Nor do I have any intention of doing so," Peskov stated in response to a request to specify what proposals "remain on the table."

"These proposals have been conveyed by the [Russian] president to his counterpart. We will see what the coordination process looks like going forward," the spokesman noted.

"Since the very beginning of this story, before the start of the military standoff, President Putin offered various forms of mediation and services that could have helped to reduce tensions," Peskov said at the Kremlin news briefing on Tuesday morning.

However, in the current situation, Putin cannot yet be viewed as a mediator, Peskov said.

"We need to have multilateral understanding, multilateral coordination. Therefore, we should be a little patient under the current circumstances," he said.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime.'
'Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'

IMAGE: A motorcycle passes by fire burning along Tehran's Koohsar Boulevard, Iran, in this screengrab from video obtained from social media and released on March 8, 2026. Photograph: Social Media/Reuters

Key Points​

• 'The idea is to expand this war to pressure America not from their military might but from the consequences of American engagement inside Iran.'
• 'The Iranian system is deeply entrenched and you got to remember that not everyone in Iran hates the current system.'
• 'Even if the Americans may have deep intelligence in Iran it is not necessary those people can rise to power.'

When Israeli and American warplanes began pounding Iranian targets on February 28, many in Western capitals believed the strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic from within.

For decades, Israel and Iran had fought a shadow war through covert operations, cyberattacks, assassinations and proxy conflicts across the Middle East.

That long-running covert rivalry escalated dramatically when the United States joined Israeli strikes on Iranian military and strategic infrastructure, turning what had largely been an indirect confrontation into open warfare.

The killing of the 86-year-old Khamenei was widely seen as a decapitation strike intended to paralyse Iran's political system and possibly trigger mass protests against the clerical regime, particularly after years of anti-government mobilisation including the anti-hijab movement.

Yet, more than a week into the war, the expected political collapse in Tehran has not materialised.

Instead, Iran moved swiftly to stabilise its leadership structure, elevating Mojtaba Khamenei to supreme leader status and relying on the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to maintain internal cohesion.

Despite sustained air attacks and the pressure of economic disruption, the Islamic Republic has shown little sign of capitulating.

Tehran has instead attempted to widen the battlefield by threatening American interests and energy infrastructure across the Gulf while relying on its large {censored}nal of missiles and drones to sustain a prolonged confrontation.

Why did the anticipated collapse of the Iranian system not take place? Did Western governments misread the strength of dissent inside Iran? And how long can Tehran hold out against the combined military pressure of Israel and the United States?

In this interview with Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff, Kabir Taneja, Executive Director for Middle East Studies at the Observer Research Foundation, explains why Iran appears far more resilient than many expected and why the current conflict could evolve into a prolonged regional crisis rather than a swift regime-changing war.

We are more than a week into the war and Iran seems to be in no mood to surrender. Did anyone expect that after Ayatollah Khamenei's death Iran will be able to withstand the might of US-Israel air attacks?

Decapitation is something that has been utilised against Iran for a long period of time.

A lot of the conflict that we are seeing right now in conventional format has been happening between Iran and Israel in a clandestine form for decades.

The preparation that Iran had for this kind of eventuality has always been there.

Having said that, it is a huge blow for a system like Iran to lose their spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei, but also, Khamenei was 86 years old and his succession plan was already in place for the past couple of years. He was quite ill too.

IMAGE: A huge gathering to support Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Other than the symbolism of assassinating Khamenei, when it comes to political decision making or creating a structure that will sustain post his departure, all that was probably in place. Functionally it did not matter too much, but of course, politically, spiritually and emphatically it was a very big deal.

Did Western powers overestimate the January protests in Iran as they must have felt that after Khamenei's death the people of Iran would overthrow the clergy government?

I think so. They are not using the language now but till a couple of days back they were saying it was upto the will of the Iranian people to decide what kind of political system will take place later on.

That was reliant on their perception that there was going to be mass mobilisation or popular mobilisation similar to the Arab Spring that happened a couple of years back, that would displace the current Iranian political system once the ayatollah was eliminated.

They made the calculation that post the ayatollah there would be a disintegration of the Iranian system.

All that did not take place. There was clearly misconception on the strength of public opinion inside Iran despite the protest that took place, be it civilian protests, anti-hijab protests or pro-monarchy protests.

Till now nothing has happened. There has been no popular mobilisation (against the Islamic regime), so whatever intelligence they had as far as that part of the plan was concerned was fairly flawed or misrepresented.

The war must surely have created food shortages and hit electricity supply in Iran. How come the Islamic regime is still holding onto the country?

The people will not be able to do anything. If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is in a position to fight back and if there is level of decentralisation on what kind of warfare is taking place and the fact that their strategy is not to attack Israel directly but American interests in the Gulf countries.

The idea is to basically expand this war to pressure America not from their military might but from the consequences of American engagement inside Iran which is what is happening right now.

Even prior to the war they said (to Americans), don't do this as the cost will be too high.

Iranians have been saying for the last 10 months that if the Ayatollah was targeted or if they are targeted extensively they will make this war a regional war. They have done that now.

Strategically this is not something new.

What strategy is working for Iran that is not making the regime surrender? What right steps are they taking in terms of military preparedness?

They have a huge number of missiles and drones in their ammunition. They do not have an air force. You've got to remember that the Americans till now are not going for ground invasion.

Political change does not happen through air power. It is very difficult. Right now the American plan is that they have huge air power and they are expecting someone within Iran to come up and take charge (by throwing out the current regime) which has not happened yet.

IMAGE: An explosion in Sanandaj, Kurdistan province, Iran in this still image from a social media video released on March 5, 2026. Photograph: Social Media/via Reuters
The time between the assassination of the ayatollah and the new ayatollah chosen was short because Iran had prepared for this for the past couple of years.

That time was the only probable time when any kind of displacement of political power could have taken place.

Now, in the next week or two, if this continues and there is solidification of the new ayatollah (Mojtaba Khamenei) as far as internal cohesion is concerned, then we will see the same thing what was going on in Iran for the past 40 years but under a new leadership, and nothing else.

Opponents of Iran say that Iran will be defeated the day its missiles and drones get exhausted. Do you feel this can be true?

They will probably, at some point. The Shahed drone is a simple machine, it flies 150 to 160 km per hour under a threshold of 2,000 to 5,000 feet. These are drones that can be manufactured in a huge capacity on a monthly basis.

If they do maintain that capacity in the time to come they can continue with the idea of a protracted war targeting largely regional countries for a long period of time.

Now it comes to the point a country facing an existential crisis it is going to be in a mode to fight to the death. I don't think the Americans or Israelis will be in that mode. How long can this go on from the American and Israeli point of view is something that may determine the eventual outcome of this conflict.

Is Iran capable of producing more missiles and drones in war conditions? If yes, how many of them can it produce?

The estimation is 3,000 to 5,000 Shahed drones in a month at this point of time. I don't know about the Iranian missile capacity production though. You also got to know that Shahed drones useability and manufacturing was perfected in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Iranians supplied Shahed drones to the Russians in huge numbers. The capacity building was solidified during the Russia-Ukraine war.

Are China-Russia militarily helping Iran in the war?

Not kinetically or militarily; some reports have suggested that Russians may have provided some targeting intelligence to Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has very strongly supported the Iranian position in the conflict. Other than diplomatic and maybe some intelligence inputs here and there, as far as the military goes they will not be entering this war.

You had written that the only way actionable intelligence would reach Israel and the US on Khamenei's whereabouts, movements, and schedules, is if the calls were coming from inside the house itself.
If this was the case, what about the people who provided intelligence to Israel? Are they not powerful enough in Iran to overthrow the regime?

Not necessarily. The Americans were going to Iran with more of a Venezuelan operation. They just wanted to remove the head of state (like Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela) and let someone whom they can work with (take charge).

The Americans themselves said there were 2-3 people who could do that but they were eliminated in the air strikes itself.

So even if the Americans may have deep intelligence in Iran it is not necessary those people (who are spying on Iran from within) can rise to power or overthrow the power in Iran. Because then you are talking of taking on the entire IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) system which remains intact in its support for the ayatollah and its support in making sure that the current Islamic revolution regime persists and exists beyond this war as well.

The US want the Kurds to play a role in overthrowing the Iranian government. Do you feel the Kurds will be able to do that?

There is this idea of arming minorities or Balkanising Iran, but I don't think this has functioned very well for the Kurds. I know for a fact that when this idea was announced this would be a huge problem for the Turks.

Turkiye, which has a border with Iran, will not allow the Kurdish armed militia on its border considering they have fought the Kurdish armed militia PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) for the last 30 years.

So the Turks will actively push back against any such idea, but, of course, from an Israeli perspective they will not mind if Iran is left in a chaotic format internally so that they are just busy with sort of trying to hold onto power.

This will give them less time and resources to concentrate on external aggression which is mostly targeted at Israel.

Do you believe that without ground troops in Iran, the USA will not be able to oust the current Islamic regime? In that case, what are the other military options?

Yes, without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. It is very difficult by utilising just air power to change the regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.

IMAGE: SENSITIVE MATERIAL. THIS IMAGE MAY OFFEND OR DISTURB. Blood stains at an impact site following a deadly Iranian missile strike in Yehud, Israel, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Nir Elias/Reuters
If you remember Trump had told pro monarchy protestors of Iran 'help is coming'. This basically meant air power which he believed would galvanise something to overthrow the Iranian regime but that did not happen.

The Iranian system is deeply entrenched and you got to remember that not everyone in Iran hates the current system. There is a lot of support for them also which will now be further galvanised and help them in a way that they are trying to sustain this political system in the future as well.

Does Iran believe that targeting the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and other oil producing nations will result in a global energy crisis leading to America to withdraw its attack?

That is the strategy they are going with. I am not sure whether it will function or not, but right now Brent (crude futures) is touching $120. This is going to be a huge global concern. Trump has already tweeted that in the short term it does not matter.

But for a country like India which relies on the imports of hydrocarbons -- 86 percent of our hydrocarbons are imported annually -- it will be a huge problem if this price rise continues. There will be external pressure on the US if oil prices continue to spiral around $160 or $170 a barrel.

Right now it looks like the Islamic regime in Iran is not going anywhere and in this scenario what best can the US get out of this war?

I have studied this region for the last 10 years and it never ends well. You cannot predict anything and I don't want to put my neck on the line. Right now things are very fluid and it is very difficult to say (what will happen next).
I don't think Iranians will at this point of time be willing to capitulate which is the demand of the Americans that they should surrender their drones and missiles and only then they can talk.
Both are looking at a middle path but both are not agreeing to the terms and conditions that each of them have as to what that middle path would be.
So at this point you may see a continuation of the conflict for a few weeks at least.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

US spent $11.3bn in first week of war with Iran, confirms Pentagon​

March 12, 2026, 06:35:46 IST

The West Asia war entered its second week with escalating strikes, Iran mocking the US attack, and continued exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.​

The US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile in support of Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran from an undisclosed location March 1, 2026. (Reuters)

Two foreign oil tankers were attacked at Iraq’s port of al-Faw, even as Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia intercepted additional Iranian missiles and drones. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian set out three conditions to end the war: recognition of Tehran’s rights, payment of reparations and firm international guarantees against future aggression.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump vowed to protect oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran warned global oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel. As tensions escalate, Iran and Hezbollah launched coordinated waves of attacks on Israel, even as Israeli forces continued large-scale strikes on Beirut.


March 12, 2026, 06:35:46 (IST)
UN council passes resolution demanding Iran stop Gulf strikes; China, Russia abstain
The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution urging Iran to halt attacks on Gulf countries and commercial shipping as the regional conflict intensifies. The measure was adopted 13-0, with China and Russia abstaining from the vote.

March 12, 2026, 0614 (IST)
First week of Iran war cost US $11.3 billion, Pentagon tells Congress
The first week of the war with Iran has cost the United States about $11.3 billion, according to a Pentagon estimate shared with Congress during a private briefing earlier this week, a person familiar with the matter said. The defence department had earlier reported spending $5 billion on munitions during the war’s opening weekend.
The Pentagon had previously indicated that the administration of Donald Trump might seek additional funding from Congress for the conflict. However, that request now appears to be on hold.
Roger Wicker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Wednesday that he does not expect a supplemental funding request to reach lawmakers this month.
March 12, 2026, 06:07:54 (IST)
India backs IEA move to release 400 million barrels to calm oil prices
India said it is prepared to take steps to support global oil market stability after the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated release of a record 400 million barrels from reserves to curb prices surging after the US–Israel conflict with Iran.
March 12, 2026, 05:56:15 (IST)
Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei suffered fractured foot on first day of US-Israel bombardment
Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly suffered a fractured foot and minor injuries on the opening day of the US and Israel’s bombardment campaign, a source familiar with the situation told CNN


16 killed in Israeli air raid in Lebanon as conflict with Hezbollah intensifies
March 12, 2026, 05:48:57 (IST)
Araghchi says Iran’s oldest bank branch bombed, vows retaliation
Seyed Abbas Araghchi said a branch of Iran’s oldest bank was bombed while employees worked ahead of the New Year, calling it an attack on national infrastructure and warning Iran’s armed forces will retaliate.

March 12, 2026, 05:45:44 (IST)
US to release 172 million barrels from strategic reserve next week
The US said 32 members of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from reserves to ease energy prices. The US will supply 172 million from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over 120 days, with plans to replenish about 200 million barrels within a year.
March 12, 2026, 00:52:56 (IST)
FBI alerts California police to possible Iranian drone retaliation
Federal authorities have warned police departments across California about a potential Iranian retaliation involving drones aimed at the US West Coast, according to a bulletin reviewed by ABC News on Wednesday. The alert, issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in late February, said that intelligence indicated Iran may have “aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States” specifically against unspecified targets in California if the United States carried out strikes on Iran.
March 12, 2026, 00:40:48 (IST)
Trump says he’s ‘not worried’ about potential Iran drone strikes on US soil
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he was not worried about Iran-backed attacks on U.S. soil, as the Federal Bureau of Investigation warned of Iranian drones potentially striking the U.S. West Coast, ABC News reported.
The U.S. and Israel carried out strikes on Iran nearly two weeks ago, launching the Gulf region into a war. Tehran has carried out retaliatory strikes in response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed top Iranian officials, including the country’s supreme leader.
When asked on Wednesday if he was worried that Iran may increase it retaliation to include strikes on U.S. soil, Trump told reporters, “No, I’m not.”
ABC News later reported that the FBI had warned police departments in California that Iran could retaliate for U.S. attacks by launching drones at the West Coast.
“We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,” the FBI wrote in an alert distributed at the end of February, according to ABC News.
“We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack.”
March 12, 2026, 00:24:15 (IST)
Iran targets ships, Dubai airport, oil facilities as economic concerns mount
Iran fired upon commercial ships on Wednesday and targeted Dubai International Airport, escalating a campaign of bottling up the oil-rich Persian Gulf as global energy concerns mounted and American and Israeli airstrikes pounded the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s response to the surprise Israeli and US bombardment that started 12 days ago has upended trade routes, choked supplies of fuel and fertiliser coming out of the Gulf and threatened air traffic through one of the world’s most-travelled regions. Both sides have dug in, hoping to outlast the other.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was wounded at the start of the war — on the day when his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, an Israeli intelligence assessment has found.
March 11, 2026, 23:43:02 (IST)
US gasoline prices hit $3.50 a gallon at the pumps as Iran war rages on
The national average retail price of gasoline in the United States climbed past $3.50 a gallon this week, marking the highest level since May 2024, according to data from AAA and GasBuddy. The surge comes as the ongoing Israel-United States conflict with Iran disrupts oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, stoking global supply concerns.
The spike in fuel costs threatens to strain consumer budgets and could impact broader economic activity, raising potential political risks for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections.
William Stern, CEO of US-based small business lender Cardiff, said, “Geopolitical shockwaves don’t take months to hit your wallet. They take days… You feel the exact squeeze the second you fill up your car just to take the kids to practice.”
March 11, 2026, 2315 (IST)
Centre, Gulf nations helping Indians amid West Asia conflict: PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said the Centre and Gulf nations were doing everything possible to help Indians stranded during the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Addressing a massive NDA rally here, he said the BJP-led NDA government always makes every possible effort to help its citizens when they are in trouble.
“Be it saving the nurses stranded in Iraq or freeing Father Tom from the clutches of terrorists in Yemen, India now does not abandon its citizens in their time of crisis.
“Father Alexis Premkumar was safely rescued and brought back from Afghanistan. Even today our aim is to ensure that Indians stranded in West Asia amidst the war are safe and receive all possible facilities,” the PM said.
March 11, 2026, 23:19:38 (IST)
Joe Rogan questions Trump’s Iran strike, says supporters feel 'betrayed'
Influential podcaster Joe Rogan this week criticised President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran, suggesting that many of the president’s supporters feel “betrayed” by the military action.
During a podcast episode released Tuesday, Rogan discussed the issue with conservative author and writer Michael Shellenberger. He described the military operation as “so insane based on what he ran on,” highlighting a perceived contradiction between Trump’s campaign promises and his actions.
“I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on ‘no more wars,’ ‘end these stupid, senseless wars,’ and then we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it,” Rogan said. The podcaster had hosted Trump on his show two years ago and publicly endorsed him ahead of the 2024 election.
Shellenberger pointed out that Trump had stated on the campaign trail that he opposed “endless wars.” Rogan countered by referencing former Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s 2003 comments at the start of the Iraq War: “It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.” Rogan noted the irony that the Iraq conflict ultimately lasted nearly nine years.
The discussion reflects growing debate among some conservative circles about the alignment between Trump’s foreign policy decisions and his campaign rhetoric.
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March 11, 2026, 22:59:44 (IST)
Trump says Iran 'welcome to compete' at World Cup despite war
US President Donald Trump would “welcome” Iran’s participation at the upcoming World Cup in North America, despite the ongoing Middle East war, the White House said on Wednesday. The war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, has thrown into doubt Iran’s participation at this summer’s men’s football World Cup, jointly hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States. The US administration was confirming an Instagram post by FIFA chief Gianni Infantino earlier in the day.
March 11, 2026, 22:38:38 (IST)
Iran signals readiness for long economic war after attacks on commercial vessels
Iran said Wednesday it was ready for a long war of attrition that would “destroy” the world economy, after firing on two commercial ships and threatening any vessels from the US or its allies. As Tehran tightened its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea passage for the global oil trade, US President Donald Trump said the war would end “soon” as there was little left for US forces to target in Iran.
March 11, 2026, 22:25:02 (IST)

Iran has laid sea mines in Strait of Hormuz as conflict halts key oil route​

Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two sources familiar with the matter said, in a move likely to complicate the reopening of the narrow waterway, an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas. Exports of ‌oil and ⁠LNG through ⁠the strategic chokepoint along Iran’s coast have effectively been halted by the war launched 12 days ago by the United States and Israel, helping to drive a surge in world energy prices.
March 11, 2026, 22:11:50 (IST)
European nations deploy warships, jets to eastern Mediterranean as Cyprus becomes key hub
Several European countries have begun deploying warships, fighter jets and air defence systems to the eastern Mediterranean as tensions rise following the United States and Israel’s strikes on Iran. Much of the military buildup is centred around Cyprus, an island nation in the eastern Mediterranean that is a member of the European Union but not part of NATO. The island also hosts two sovereign British military bases, making it a strategic location during the conflict.
Countries including France, Spain, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Germany have announced deployments ranging from frigates and aircraft carriers to fighter jets and air defence systems to bolster regional security. France is sending several naval assets, including the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, while Greece has deployed F-16 Viper fighter jets and missile defence systems.
Meanwhile, Turkey has deployed fighter jets and air defence systems to the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a territory recognised only by Ankara, further highlighting the island’s growing strategic importance amid the escalating regional crisis.
March 11, 2026, 21:57:05 (IST)
Ukraine sends anti-drone teams to Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia amid Iranian attacks
Ukraine has deployed teams of anti-drone specialists to three Gulf countries targeted by Iranian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday. Speaking to reporters, Zelenskyy said the teams include military personnel, engineers and technical experts who have already begun coordinating with local forces.
According to his office, the specialists have been sent to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to help strengthen defences against drone threats as regional tensions escalate.
March 11, 2026, 21:43:11 (IST)
Iran condemns new EU sanctions over alleged human rights abuses
Iran has condemned fresh sanctions imposed by the European Union targeting Iranian officials over alleged human rights violations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described the measures as “absurd”, “immoral”, and “utterly unlawful” in a post on X.
Baghaei said the sanctions were intended to punish Iran for exercising what he called its right to self-defence under the Article 51 of the UN Charter and for resisting “aggression” by the United States and Israel. His remarks came after EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc had approved sanctions against 19 Iranian officials and entities over serious human rights abuses.
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March 11, 2026, 21:40:01 (IST)
India welcomes IEA decision to release record emergency oil stocks
India on Wednesday welcomed the decision by the International Energy Agency to release emergency oil reserves to ease supply disruptions triggered by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The IEA has agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in its history, in an effort to stabilise global markets and curb soaring crude prices following supply shocks caused by the war.
“India stands ready ‌to take appropriate measures, as necessary, ‌to support global market stability in alignment with the efforts of the ⁠International Energy Agency,” the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said in a statement.
March 11, 2026, 21:08:56 (IST)
: India deplores attack on ship bound for Kandla, reiterates need to avoid targeting commercial vessels
India on Wednesday said it had taken note of reports that the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree, bound for Kandla Port, was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11. In a statement, New Delhi said it deplores the targeting of commercial shipping in the ongoing conflict in West Asia, noting that precious lives, including those of Indian citizens, had already been lost in similar attacks earlier in the crisis.
March 11, 2026, 21:06:38 (IST)
: US has struck over 5,500 targets in Iran, CENTCOM commander says
The United States Central Command said American forces have carried out airstrikes on more than 5,500 targets inside Iran as part of ongoing military operations in the region. In an update posted on X, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper said U.S. forces continue to deliver “devastating combat power” against the Iranian regime.
Cooper added that US military strength in the region was increasing while Iran’s combat capabilities were weakening. He said the operations remain focused on clear military objectives including eliminating Iran’s ability to project power against Americans and neighbouring countries.

March 11, 2026, 20:59:54 (IST)
Erdogan warns Iran war could engulf West Asia, urges diplomacy
Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday warned that the ongoing war involving Iran could engulf the entire West Asia if it is not halted soon, urging all sides to give diplomacy a chance. Speaking in parliament, the Turkish president said the conflict must be stopped before the region is “thrown into the fire,” while emphasising that Ankara is acting cautiously to shield Turkey from the escalating hostilities.
His remarks came as NATO confirmed that its air defence systems intercepted two Iranian missiles headed toward southern Turkey over the past week. The area hosts key air and radar facilities used by Nato and the United States, prompting the alliance to strengthen its defences amid rising regional tensions.
March 11, 2026, 20:43:43 (IST)
LPG shortage forces kitchens across India to drop hot meals, switch to simpler menus
A shortage of cooking gas triggered by disruptions to West Asia energy supplies is forcing kitchens across India to drop hot meals and beverages with many canteens and hostels switching to simpler dishes that require less fuel, Reuters reported. The supply crunch follows a sharp disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has pushed up energy and transport costs and curtailed shipments of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
India, the world’s second-largest LPG importer, has invoked emergency measures to boost domestic production, but institutions and factories say supplies remain tight. In several states, including Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, canteens have begun trimming fuel-intensive items such as fried foods, tea and freshly made flatbreads, replacing them with options like lemon water, buttermilk or curd until gas supplies stabilise.
March 11, 2026, 20:40:03 (IST)
: India has enough coal for 88 days amid gas supply disruptions from Iran conflict: Govt
India has sufficient coal reserves to meet the expected surge in electricity demand during the summer months despite disruptions to natural gas supplies caused by the escalating West Asia conflict, the Ministry of Coal said on Wednesday.
In a statement, the ministry said the country currently holds around 210 million metric tonnes of coal, enough to cover approximately 88 days of consumption. The assurance comes as India prepares to ramp up coal-fired power generation to meet peak summer demand after the conflict involving Iran disrupted natural gas supplies, particularly shipments from Qatar.
Coal continues to account for nearly three-fourths of India’s electricity generation, even as the country accelerates the expansion of renewable energy capacity.
March 11, 2026, 20:20:07 (IST)
IEA to release record 400 million barrels of oil
The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to stabilise global markets amid supply disruptions caused by the ongoing Iran war. The move marks the largest coordinated stock release in the organisation’s history.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the conflict in the West Asia was significantly affecting global oil and gas markets, with major implications for energy security, affordability and the broader global economy. The agency said the reserves would be released by its 32 member countries over a timeframe suited to their respective circumstances, though it did not specify when the oil would begin entering the market.
March 11, 2026, 20:14:08 (IST)
Iran says it cannot participate in 2026 FIFA World Cup after Khamenei killing
Iran will not be able to take part in the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the killing of its supreme leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, the country’s sports minister said on Wednesday.
Iran’s Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali said security concerns made participation impossible. “Given that this government has assassinated our leader, we cannot participate in the World Cup. Our players do not have security,” he said, adding that the country currently had no possibility of sending a team to the tournament.
The 2026 World Cup is scheduled to be co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19. However, Gianni Infantino earlier said that US President Donald Trump had indicated Iran’s national team would be welcome to compete in the United States, stressing that the tournament should help “bring people together now more than ever.”
March 11, 2026, 19:59:22 (IST)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say Israeli-linked vessel, Thai bulk carrier struck in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s paramilitary force Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday that it had struck two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after they allegedly ignored warnings to stop.
In a statement carried by ISNA and cited by AFP, the Guards said the Liberia-flagged Express Rome, which they claimed was Israeli-owned, and the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree were hit by Iranian projectiles. The IRGC said its naval forces targeted the ships after they failed to comply with instructions issued in the strategic waterway, a key route for global oil and commercial shipping.
March 11, 2026, 19:54:22 (IST)
: Switzerland temporarily closes Tehran embassy, to continue mediating US-Iran communication
Switzerland has announced the temporary closure of its embassy in Tehran amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, while pledging to continue its longstanding role as an intermediary between United States and Iran.
In a statement, Switzerland’s foreign ministry said the decision was taken due to the deteriorating security situation, but emphasised that the country would maintain communication channels between Washington and Tehran as part of its diplomatic “good offices.” Neutral Switzerland has for decades facilitated limited diplomatic contact between the two countries, acting as a key conduit for messages in the absence of formal diplomatic relations.
March 11, 2026, 19:48:37 (IST) 'Nothing left' to target': Trump says Iran war will end soon
President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end soon, claiming that the US and its allies have already struck most major military targets in the country. Speaking to Axios in a phone interview, Trump said there was “practically nothing left” to target in Iran after a series of strikes during the ongoing conflict.
March 11, 2026, 19:36:14 (IST)
Hamas, Islamic Jihad congratulate Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, pledge support
Hamas congratulates its “brothers in Iran” on the appointment of the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and wishes him victory in the war with the United States and Israel.
“We wish him success in fulfilling the aspirations of the Iranian people to defeat the Israeli-American aggression and prevent the forces of arrogance from imposing their will on Iran,” Hazem Qassem, a spokesman for the Palestinian terror group, says in a statement.
In a separate statement, Palestinian terror group Islamic Jihad also welcomes the selection of Khamenei and says “all the free peoples of the world stand with you.”
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March 11, 2026, 19:30:19 (IST)
Iran warns civilians to stay away from US and Israeli-linked banks after overnight strike
Iran’s armed forces have advised civilians across the Middle East to keep a distance of at least half a mile from banks and economic facilities associated with the United States and Israel, following an overnight attack targeting one of Iran’s financial institutions.
According to Iran’s state-affiliated news outlet Nour News, the warning was issued by a spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the unified combat command of the Iranian armed forces.
March 11, 2026, 19:00:58 (IST)
Iran warns of continuous strikes, threatens to disrupt oil supplies to US and allies
Iran has warned that it will shift from retaliatory attacks to sustained military strikes against its adversaries, while also cautioning that the United States will not be able to keep global oil prices under control amid rising tensions in the region.
Speaking on Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, said Iran would escalate its strategy beyond responding with limited counterattacks.
He said Tehran would block oil supplies destined for the United States, Israel and their allies, warning that ships transporting such cargo could become targets.
“We will not allow even a single litre of oil to reach the US, Zionists (Israel) and their partners. Any vessel or tanker heading to them will be considered a legitimate target,” Zolfaqari said.
He also cautioned that escalating regional instability could drive a sharp surge in global oil prices. According to him, energy markets are closely tied to the security situation in the Middle East.
“Prepare for oil prices to rise to $200 a barrel, because the price of oil depends on regional security — something you have destabilised,” he added.
March 11, 2026, 18:53:11 (IST)
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei lightly injured, continues duties: official
Newly-appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ‌was lightly injured but is continuing to operate, an Iranian ⁠official told Reuters on Wednesday. The official did not give details about when he was injured ‌or ⁠why he had not made any statement to ⁠the public since being appointed the ⁠new leader.
March 11, 2026, 18:45:03 (IST)
Centre asks states to crack down fuel hoarding and black marketing
The Centre on Wednesday directed state governments to take strict action to prevent hoarding and black marketing of fuel as concerns grow over global supply pressures. The directive was conveyed during a meeting between the Union Home Secretary and Chief Secretaries and Directors General of Police from all states and Union Territories.
Speaking at a media briefing later in the day, C Senthil Rajan, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, said “It was emphasized in meeting with that state governments take action to prevent hoarding and black-marketing.”
March 11, 2026, 18:42:01 (IST)
Indian Oil assures adequate LPG supply in Northeast India, says production to go on uninterrupted
PSU Indian Oil Corp, which supplies LPG cylinders to almost 85 per cent of the entire Northeast market, on Wednesday said it has enough stock to provide the cooking fuel in the region during the coming period on the backdrop of the war in West Asia.
A senior official of the IOC told PTI that all its nine bottling plants in the Northeast are producing LPG cylinders at their maximum capacities and distributing the same as per the government’s directives. “As of now, there is no gap between demand and supply for the LPG cylinders. All cylinders are being supplied as per the restrictions of the central government,” she added.
March 11, 2026, 18:33:19 (IST)
Jaishankar holds telephonic talks with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov on West Asia conflict, bilateral ties
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held a telephonic conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the evolving situation in West Asia and ongoing diplomatic efforts related to the conflict.

Jaishankar said the two leaders exchanged their assessments of the crisis and also reviewed the broader agenda of bilateral cooperation between India and Russia.
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March 11, 2026, 1830 (IST)
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ‘lightly injured’ but continues to operate: Report
Newly appointed Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly suffered minor injuries but continues to carry out his duties, an Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday. The official did not disclose when or how Khamenei was injured and also did not explain why the new leader has not addressed the public since assuming office.
Khamenei, who recently took over the country’s top leadership role following the death of his father Ali Khamenei, has remained out of public view amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Despite reports of the injury, officials said he continues to operate and oversee affairs of the state.
March 11, 2026, 18:25:22 (IST)
: 2 Indians killed, 1 missing in merchant vessel attacks amid West Asia conflict: MEA
India on Wednesday confirmed that two of its nationals were killed and another is missing after merchant vessels they were aboard came under attack amid the escalating conflict in West Asia. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said the casualties occurred while the three Indians were working on commercial ships targeted during the hostilities.

He added that a few other Indian nationals in the Gulf region have sustained injuries and are currently undergoing medical treatment, with Indian diplomatic missions maintaining close contact with them. The Indian Consulate is also assisting an Indian national injured in Dubai, who is receiving treatment at a hospital, while officials remain in regular touch to ensure his welfare and well-being.
March 11, 2026, 18:23:21 (IST)
: India absorbs LPG cost surge, extends minimum refill booking gap to 25 days
The Central government has absorbed a significant portion of the recent rise in LPG costs to shield consumers from the full impact of higher prices, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary (Marketing & Oil Refinery) in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said on Wednesday.
She stated that as a temporary demand-management measure, the government has also increased the minimum gap between LPG cylinder bookings from 21 days to 25 days. The move aims to stabilise supply and moderate demand while ensuring households continue to receive cooking gas at relatively controlled prices.

March 11, 2026, 18:18:09 (IST) Israeli airstrikes target Beirut’s southern suburbs after evacuation warnings
Israeli warplanes carried out fresh airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Wednesday, according to state media reports, shortly after Israel issued warnings urging residents in the area to evacuate.
Footage recorded by AFPTV showed thick plumes of black smoke rising from the locations that were hit, suggesting heavy damage in the targeted neighbourhoods.
The latest bombardment followed an earlier strike at dawn that struck a building in central Beirut, marking a further escalation in the attacks on the Lebanese capital.
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Israel’s military said Wednesday it detected missiles launched from Iran toward its territory and activated air defence systems, while continuing a “wave” of strikes against targets in Iran and Lebanon.
“A short while ago, the IDF identified missiles launched from Iran toward the territory of the State of Israel. Defensive systems are operating to intercept the threat,” the military said on its official Telegram account.
AFP journalists reported hearing air raid sirens in Jerusalem along with explosions in the distance.
A short time later, Israel’s military said residents were permitted to leave shelters.

 

[Dalvinder Singh Grewal]

Thai-flagged ship bound for India attacked in Strait of Hormuz​

Source: PTI March 11, 2026 18:34 IST

A Thai cargo vessel was struck by missiles near the Strait of Hormuz, raising maritime security concerns and prompting a search for three missing crew members.

IMAGE: The Thailand-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree engulfed in black smoke in the Strait of Hormuz, March 11, 2026. Photographs: Royal Thai Navy/Reuters

Key Points​

• A Thai cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, was attacked by missiles near the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in three crew members missing.
• The Royal Navy of Oman rescued 20 Thai crew members after the missile attack on the cargo vessel.
• Search and rescue operations are ongoing for the three missing crew members believed to be on board the damaged ship.
• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route, and the attack highlights increased maritime security concerns due to ongoing Middle East conflict.
• Thai authorities are coordinating with international maritime forces and embassies to assist the crew and ensure their safe return.

A Thai-flagged cargo vessel was struck by missiles near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, leaving three crew members unaccounted for, while 20 others were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman, The Bangkok Post reported, citing the Royal Thai Navy.
According to The Bangkok Post, citing the Maritime Traffic and Vessel Control Centre, the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree, operated by SET-listed Precious Shipping Plc, had departed from Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates and was bound for Kandla port in Gujarat, when it came under attack around 10 am.
Explosion On Thai-Flagged Cargo Ship
Two projectiles struck the vessel above the waterline, causing explosions near the stern and in the engine room and triggering a fire on board. All 23 crew members on the ship were Thai nationals.
Twenty crew members evacuated the vessel using liferafts and were later rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman and taken safely to Khasab in Oman, The Bangkok Post reported.
Search and rescue operations are underway for the remaining three crew members, who are believed to still be on board the damaged vessel.

The Bangkok Post, citing maritime security agencies and sources, said the Thai carrier was one of three vessels targeted by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, with the Mayuree Naree reportedly suffering the most severe damage.
The Royal Thai Navy said it is coordinating the response through the Combined Maritime Forces headquarters in Bahrain and is working closely with Thai embassies in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

It is also collaborating with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) to support ongoing search and rescue efforts.
Authorities added that coordination is underway with the Consular Affairs Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marine Department and the Thai Maritime Enforcement Command Centre to assist the crew members and arrange their safe return to Thailand.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical shipping routes, through which a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies passes. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted maritime activity in the region and heightened security concerns for commercial vessels.

Impact on Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz​

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical shipping routes, through which a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies passes. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted maritime activity in the region and heightened security concerns for commercial vessels.

Israel is bracing for potential attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, extending nationwide restrictions and holding high-level security meetings to address the escalating threat.

IMAGE: People walk to take cover in a shelter after Iran sent a barrage of missiles towards Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tel Aviv, Israel, March 10, 2026. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

Key Points​

• Israel extends nationwide restrictions due to potential attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.
• The IDF's Home Front Command prohibits educational activities but allows gatherings of up to 50 people near shelters.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to hold security cabinet meetings to address the escalating tensions.
• Current restrictions in Israel will remain in place until Saturday evening, pending further assessment by the Home Front Command.

Nationwide restrictions in Israel are to remain in place, Israel Defence Forces Home Front commander said on Wednesday, warning citizens of "difficult days" ahead due to expected attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

The Home Front Command's guidelines currently prohibit educational activities but permit gatherings of up to 50 people, provided there is timely access to a shelter.

Workplaces can also operate under the same conditions.

"Difficult days and days of trial are ahead of us," Maj. Gen. Shai Klapper, Head of the IDF's Home Front Command, said.
"We in the Home Front Command weigh the defensive policy every day, alongside the central consideration of safeguarding the security of Israel's citizens, alongside maintaining the national continuity and functioning of the Israeli economy and the education systems," Klapper said, adding, "Therefore, the policy remains unchanged for now".

The current restrictions will remain in place until Saturday at 8 pm, when the Home Front Command will make another assessment.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting of the restricted cabinet on Wednesday at 9 pm with the participation of the heads of the security establishment. This will be followed by the meeting of the expanded political-security cabinet on Thursday at 8 pm.
Donald Trump claims the war with Iran is ending 'soon' due to successful US military operations, despite conflicting statements from his administration regarding the timeline.

Key Points​

• President Trump claims the war with Iran is progressing faster than expected, with extensive damage inflicted.
• Trump asserts the conflict could end whenever he decides, indicating a potentially swift conclusion.
• Trump alleges Iran's actions threatened the broader Middle East, justifying the US military response.
• Trump's timeline contradicts his Secretary of War, who stated operations would continue until objectives are met.
• The US military campaign against Iran has reportedly eliminated key levels of Iranian leadership.

United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that the ongoing war with Iran would end "soon", claiming that there is "practically nothing left to target" after sustained military strikes.

In a brief phone interview with Axios, Trump said the military campaign had progressed faster than initially anticipated and inflicted more damage than expected.
"The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period," Trump said as quoted by Axios.

Speaking about the timeline of the conflict, Trump said it could conclude whenever he decides to bring it to an end.

"Little this and that... Any time I want it to end, it will end," he told Axios during the five-minute call.

Trump Says This Is Payback​

Trump also alleged that Iran's actions extended beyond its confrontation with Israel and the United States, claiming that Tehran had posed a broader threat to countries across the Gulf region.

"They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easily," Trump says
Trump has previously offered varying timelines for the end of the conflict; however, on Monday, he said that the military operation in Iran would be over "very soon", but did not give any details of the timeline.

When asked by a reporter about his previous remarks of calling Iran an excursion and when the military operation would end, Trump said, "Very soon."

"Everything they have is gone, including their leadership. In fact their two levels of leadership and even actually as it turns out more than that, but two levels of leadership are gone. Most people have never even heard about the leaders that they're talking about. So it's obviously been very, very powerful, very effective," the US President said during a press conference in Florida.

Contradictory Statements on War Timeline​

Trump's comment has significantly contradicted the administration's remarks on the timeline of the ongoing war.

On Tuesday, his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, said that the US will continue its operations until its objectives are achieved, while asserting that the campaign is being carried out on Washington's own timeline.

"We will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated. But we do so on our timeline and at our choosing," he said.

Hegseth made his remarks in a briefing at the Pentagon along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.

The war in West Asia intensified on Wednesday as fresh strikes, drone attacks and threats of economic warfare spread across the region, while global oil prices surged and maritime routes faced disruptions.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it has attacked two ships, the Liberian-flagged Express Rome and the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree, in the Strait of Hormuz amid global energy concerns. Oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising 5.1% to $92.23 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbing 5.9% to $88.38.
LPG Gas Cylinder Shortage Live Updates
In Lebanon, the health ministry said 570 people have been killed in Israeli strikes so far, including 86 children and 14 healthcare workers, with nearly 760,000 people displaced. Fresh Israeli strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs and central districts, while another raid in Tamnin al-Tahta killed seven people.
Maritime security incidents also increased. A Thai bulk carrier was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, while another container ship was struck off the UAE coast. Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people.
Meanwhile, Iran warned it could strike US and Israeli economic targets, including banks, and Israel said it detected a new wave of Iranian missiles, activating air defences.
Mar 12, 2026 00:44 IST

UAE, Saudi Arabia Intercept Iranian Attacks​

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia said their defences intercepted a wave of drone and missile attacks by Iran.
Mar 12, 2026 00:43 IST

Trump Says US Hit 28 Iranian Mine-Laying Vessels​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: US President Donald Trump told reporters in Ohio that the US military has destroyed 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Hormuz Crisis Threatens Global Economy​

March 12, 2026 15:13 IST

When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets, explains Prem Panicker, continuing his must read blog.

IMAGE: The Galaxy Globe bulk carrier and the Luojiashan tanker sit anchored as Iran vows to close the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Benoit Tessier/Reuters

A narrow stretch of water, barely thirty kilometres wide at its widest, has always assumed inordinate importance when wars break out in the Gulf.

Why Strait of Hormuz Matters​

The Strait of Hormuz (external link), the maritime gateway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean, carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil exports, plus a fifth of global LNG, and links producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran to markets in Asia and beyond.
This 167 km chokepoint, just 21 km wide at its narrowest, has been the epicenter of conflict (external link) for decades, from ancient trade routes to modern conflicts.

Key Points​

• The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports, making it the world's most critical energy chokepoint.
• Iran has mined approaches to the strait amid escalating conflict, damaging tankers and disrupting Iraqi oil output and global shipping routes.
• Tankers rerouting around Africa and rising insurance costs are increasing shipping expenses and destabilising global energy markets.
• The conflict is already affecting economies worldwide, tightening diesel supplies, raising inflation risks and increasing commodity price volatility.
• In India, LPG shortages, rising energy prices and surging aluminium costs are beginning to ripple across restaurants, industries and consumers.

IMAGE: A projectile approaches what US Central Command (CENTCOM) says is an Iranian naval vessel, during strikes that included attacks on mine-laying vessels, at a location given as near the Strait of Hormuz, in this screen grab from video released March 10, 2026. Photograph: CENTCOM/Handout/Reuters
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets. The real target is the global economy.
The Tanker War of the 1980s Iran-Iraq conflict set the template: Iraq struck Iranian oil terminals first in 1981, then both sides hit over 450 neutral and enemy tankers by 1988 with Iraq outdoing Iran in the number of attacks.
Both sides used mines, missiles, and speedboats, though neither side fully closed the Strait for fear of widening the war.
The US stepped in with Operation Earnest Will, changing the flags of Kuwaiti tankers and their escorting convoys, the whole culminating in 1988's Operation Praying Mantis that gutted half of Iran's navy after a mine hit the USS Samuel B Roberts.

Iran War Hits Global Oil Routes​

The widening Iran war is now colliding with that chokepoint.
Since February 28, when the US and Israel launched its war, Iran has mined the approaches to the Strait, stranding 150-plus ships, damaging five tankers, halting Iraqi oil output by 70%, and prompting US forces (external link) (NYT, paywalled) to destroy 16 Iranian minelayers (external link) on March 10.

IMAGE: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration. Photograph: Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters

Tankers Reroute as Insurance Surges​

Tankers are rerouting around Africa, significantly adding to costs; insurers are hiking premiums to unaffordable levels, and energy markets are factoring in prolonged blackouts, echoing the 1980s but with the stakes considerably higher in orders of magnitude.
A bizarre incident underlines the importance of Hormuz and, equally, the US dilemma of not knowing quite what to do about it.
President Donald Trump first promised that ships sailing the Strait would be protected by US warships; he then backtracked on that and said ships should 'show guts' and sail through the Strait anyway.
And on Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that a tanker, escorted by the US navy, had successfully run the gauntlet through the Strait.
The claim was false -- the White House had to confirm that no such incident had occurred. Wright then deleted his post, and the administration blamed a low-level staffer for the false information.
If that wasn't bad enough, the Iran parliament's Speaker posted a screenshot of the original post, with a snarky comment that is now going viral (external link): 'An oil tanker crossed Strait of Hormuz escorted by US Navy ships? Maybe on PlayStation!'
Bottomline is, all parties to the conflict are now painfully aware that while the battlefield may lie in the Gulf, the consequences are already travelling far beyond it -- and no one seems to know what to do about it.

IMAGE: The Luojiashan tanker sits anchored in Muscat. Photograph: Benoit Tessier/Reuters

War Disrupts Global Energy Markets​

A sharp Reuters analysis (external link) shows how the war is already rippling through the global economy.
Diesel supplies are tightening as shipping through the Gulf slows, pushing up prices for transport, agriculture and manufacturing worldwide.
Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could trigger a fresh wave of inflation.
Associated Press reports (external link) that the US says it has destroyed multiple Iranian mine-laying vessels amid fears Tehran could block oil exports from the Gulf.
Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit targets across several countries hosting US forces, underscoring how quickly the war is becoming regional. (I had referred to the news about the US destroying mine-laying vessels earlier in this post -- what is noteworthy here is that AP does not confirm the news, it merely says "The US says...")
Reuters reports (external link) that airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities have triggered large fires and toxic plumes over Tehran, raising fears of severe environmental damage and public-health risks.
The episode illustrates how attacks on energy infrastructure carry consequences far beyond the battlefield.
And related, a Guardian report (external link) highlights the long-term environmental risks from attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, including toxic pollution and contamination of soil and water.
A paywalled piece (external link) in The New York Times looks at the collateral damage: A large proportion of civilians killed in the Gulf States are migrant workers.
Strategy Watch:
A recent War on the Rocks analysis (external link) argues that military strikes alone are unlikely to resolve the core strategic problem of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Even after sustained pressure, the Islamic Republic has historically proven resilient and capable of adapting rather than collapsing.
In this connection, it is worth recalling that in June 2025, the US bombed (external link) three nuclear sites in Iran -- Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan -- in an operation code-named Operation Midnight Hammer.
'Monumental damage was done... Obliteration is an accurate term', President Trump said at the time (external link).
And yet, less than a year later, here we are again, in the midst of a ruinous war whose stated objectives include 'destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities'.
This echoes a recurring theme in modern warfare: Airpower can disrupt an adversary, but it rarely determines outcomes by itself.
Analysts cited by Al-Monitor (external link) say Iran's strikes on Gulf states appear designed to pressure countries hosting US forces, to force them to push Washington toward ending the war.
The strategy aims to raise the political and economic cost of the conflict rather than win a direct military contest.
That logic closely resembles the 'horizontal escalation' concept described earlier by political scientist Robert Pape, and which I had outlined to in yesterday's blog.
Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco has warned (external link) that prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could have 'catastrophic consequences' for global energy markets, highlighting how central the chokepoint is to world supply.
Markets have already responded with sharp volatility in oil prices and energy equities.

IMAGE: A delivery person carries LPG cylinders on a cycle, amid supply disruptions following the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in New Delhi, March 10, 2026. Photograph: Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters

India Faces LPG and Inflation Shock​

India Watch
Across the country, the shortage of LPG is ramifying rapidly.
Reports in Indian media indicate that at least 20% of hotels in Mumbai have been shut, and the industry body warns of wider closures.
From Bangalore comes news that in some eateries, only tea and coffee is now being served.
The LPG crunch has also hit Mysore, with hoteliers saying there are no cylinders available for love or money.
Across the country, restaurants are trimming menus and shortening working hours even as they prepare for possible shutdowns, reports The Hindu (external link).
Food delivery services such as Swiggy and Zomato will now begin to feel the pinch -- with less restaurants functioning, there are less orders to service, and this escalates as more restaurants shut down or reduce operations.
Meanwhile, a spike in energy price will feed into inflation, rising transport costs, and declining industrial inputs.
The Economic Times points to another relatively unnoticed consequence: aluminum prices are surging (external link). This matters, because aluminum is one of the world's most widely used industrial metals, found in cars and aircraft, building materials, power cables, consumer electronics, beverage cans and packaging.
When its price rises sharply, manufacturers across these sectors face higher input costs which then get passed down the supply chain -- which is to say, more expensive vehicles, higher construction costs, pricier appliances and packaging, and the inevitable pressure on consumer prices.
The ripple effect spreads even further because aluminum production is extremely energy-intensive.
Smelters consume enormous amounts of electricity, and so disruptions in oil and gas markets quickly translate into higher metal prices.
Shipping disruptions amplify the effect: If trade routes through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz become risky, freight costs and insurance premiums rise, and this tightens supply and pushes prices higher still.
In short, a spike in aluminum prices quickly becomes an inflation story.
Construction projects become costlier, automakers face higher manufacturing costs, airlines and aerospace companies see production expenses climb, and infrastructure ranging from power lines to renewable energy projects get more expensive.
Thus, what the Economic Times report points to -- a movement in commodity markets -- can quickly ripple outward into the broader economy.
A report in The Hindu (external link) cites unnamed government officials as saying that with the price of oil spiking, imports from sources such as Norway and the US have become economically viable.
The officials add that such shipments take longer to arrive, and therefore shortages in the interim cannot be ruled out.
It strikes me that this optimism is based on very flimsy grounds -- thus far, there are no reports of actual purchase deals being struck with these, or indeed any other, countries.
In other words, even though the battlefield lies thousands of kilometres away, the war is unfolding along one of the arteries of India's economic lifelines.
In passing, the last oil refinery built in the US was 50 years ago. President Trump has announced (external link) the opening of a new one in Texas, and thanked Mukesh Ambani's Reliance for its 'tremendous contribution'.
A typical Trump post (external link) on the platform Truth Social, with the usual smattering of all-caps, calls it a $300 billion dollar deal, though it is not clear what part of that sum is Reliance's contribution.

IMAGE: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the situation in the global energy market, at the Kremlin in Moscow, March 9, 2026. Photograph: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool/Reuters
The Russia Connection
News reports in the US and international media suggest that President Trump has reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin, asking him to broker a ceasefire.
But before asking what a Russian-brokered ceasefire might look like, it is worth asking why Russia would broker one at all.
Putin has, thus far, had little reason to intervene.
The war is doing useful work for him: American attention and resources are stretched, oil revenues are elevated and, bonus, Trump has lifted sanctions on Russian oil exports, and the spectacle of US credibility fraying plays well in Moscow.
He has offered Iran rhetorical backing, and that has been enough. Mediation is a different matter: it requires him to spend political capital, make enforceable guarantees, and potentially disappoint Tehran, which is an exercise that comes with various costs attached.
That Trump is asking Putin to intercede plays well into other news reports which say that the US has been attempting to contact top Iranian leadership, with little success -- the Iranians are just not taking calls. (And that alone should tell you something about where Iran is right now, in its assessment of the war.)
Here is the Iranian calculation, as best as it can be read from outside: Both Israel and the US are burning through armaments at a rate that is becoming visible, and both governments are beginning to feel domestic pressure from populations absorbing economic costs. (In Israel's case, a more immediate issue is that missiles from Teheran are landing in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, often with devastating consequences; for the first time in a long time, Israelis are now facing at home the devastation they have hitherto watched their armies wreck on others).
From Tehran's perspective, therefore, a ceasefire now would freeze a situation that is, from their point of view, slowly improving.
Why accept terms today that will be worse than the terms available in six weeks? (In this connection, here is a paywalled piece (external link) in The New Yorker that elaborates on Iran's thinking. The money quote comes right at the end: 'I think that Iran's calculation is that Trump is not patient, that Trump is going to move on.')
That strategic patience is the real obstacle to any Russian mediation, and not the architecture of a deal, which is actually imaginable.
A JCPOA-style framework (external link) with Russia as guarantor, an IAEA-monitored enrichment freeze, and some sanctions relief in exchange for restraining proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, would give Trump the off-ramp he needs and Putin a starring role in a major diplomatic settlement.
Gulf States normalising trade with Iran in exchange for joint Hormuz patrols is the kind of regional bargain that writes itself on paper. The pieces exist.
But a ceasefire requires both parties to want one.
Right now, the country with the least incentive to stop is Iran.
Until that changes, either through military reversals or economic pain severe enough to shift the internal Iranian conversation, Russia's role is more likely to remain that of a watchful observer than a serious mediator.

IMAGE: Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Photograph: Ali Taghavi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Reuters
Longreads worth your time
Essential to understanding an ongoing war is knowing the nature of those who are driving it.
Two paywalled pieces in The Atlantic are worth reading from this angle: 'The Most Dangerous Man In The World (external link)', a Graeme Wood profile of Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and The Pete Hegseth Exception (external link), a Jeffrey Goldberg longread on America's hugely controversial 'Secretary of War'.
The New Yorker also has a long paywalled piece (external link) by Robin Wright that looks at the elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei and what his elevation means for the war.
No man is an island, John Donne wrote. In today's tightly interconnected world, that is equally true of countries.
Wars often begin with military calculations, but pretty soon economic consequences materialise and, thanks to that inter-connectedness, the effects ramify across the globe.
The conflict with Iran is now in that second phase, with tankers, refineries and shipping lanes becoming as important, perhaps even more so, to the war as missiles and air defenses.
And when the battlefield overlaps with the world's most important energy chokepoint, the line between regional conflict and global crisis becomes dangerously thin.

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Iran Threatens To Strike Regional Ports If Attacked​

Iran’s senior military spokesperson has threatened to attack regional ports if the US attacks its port facilities along the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian naval forces are operating.
Mar 12, 2026 00:26 IST

30 Countries Support Lebanon's Sovereignty Amid Israel-Hezbollah Conflict​

At least 30 countries condemned “in the strongest terms Hezbollah’s reckless decision to join the Iranian attacks against Israel” and also urged Israel to respect the Lebanese sovereignty.
Mar 12, 2026 00:16 IST

Republican Senator Says US Must Not Ignore Iran School Bombing​

Republican North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis warned that the US should not pretend that the deadly bombing on an Iranian girls’ school did not happen, saying it would be “the worst thing we can do.”
Mar 11, 2026 23:57 IST

Iran's Pezeshkian Speaks To Leaders From Russia, Pakistan​

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he held talks with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan, adding that he reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s commitment to peace in the region. He said the only way to end the US-Israeli war is by recognising Iran’s legitimate rights.
Mar 11, 2026 23:55 IST

Turkey's Erdogan Accuses Israel Of Terrorising Region By Attacking Gaza​

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of terrorising the region by intensifying attacks on Gaza and attempting to occupy Lebanon. “Our geography is slowly being dragged toward disaster in the hands of a massacre network that has fallen into a syndrome of arrogance,” he said.


Mar 11, 2026 23:43 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Death Toll Crosses 600 In Lebanon​

The death toll in Lebanon due to the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has risen to 624, including 91 children. At least 47 women have been killed and more than 1,500 people wounded, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Meanwhile, the US has welcomed Lebanon’s ban on the military activities of Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC.
Mar 11, 2026 23:40 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: FBI Warns Police Depts Of Iranian Drone Attack In California​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: The FBI has warned police departments in California that Iran could launch a “surprise” retaliatory attack at the US West Coast using drones from an unidentified vessel off the coast, according to ABC News.

Mar 11, 2026 23:38 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Israel Preparing For 'Significant Expansion' Of Iran, Hezbollah Attacks​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Israel is preparing for a “significant expansion” of attacks by Iran and Hezbollah on Wednesday night, according to a CNN report, citing Israeli sources

Mar 11, 2026 23:34 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: White House Says Probe Ongoing In Iran School Bombing​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said an investigation is still “ongoing” when asked about a preliminary probe that found the US responsible for the deadly strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed more than 175 people.
Mar 11, 2026 23:33 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Trump Says Oil Companies Should Use Hormuz Amid Iran War​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: “I think they should,” said US President Donald Trump when asked if he’d spoken to oil companies about the Strait of Hormuz, as he left the White House for a trip to Ohio and Kentucky.

Mar 11, 2026 22:50 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Trump Silent On Iran's New Supreme Leader​

US President Donald Trump declined to comment today on the ascension of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran’s supreme leader and what that means for the US.

Mar 11, 2026 22:47 IST

'I Don't Know,' Says Trump On US Probe On Iran School Bombing​

US President Donald Trump said “I don’t know about that” in response to a question about a report saying that a military investigation found the US responsible for the deadly bombing at an Iranian girls’ school.

Mar 11, 2026 22:29 IST

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Ukrainian Drone Experts In Gulf To Assist With Iran Attacks, Says Zelenskyy Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian drone teams are already in the Gulf region to assist countries in dealing with Iranian attacks.​

Mar 11, 2026 22:24 IST

Trump Says Iran Failed To Lay Mines In Strait Of Hormuz​

US President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran had successfully laid any mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the American military took out “just about all” of their mining vessels in one night.
Mar 11, 2026 22:16 IST

Military Probe Finds US Responsible For Iran Girls' School Bombing​

A military investigation found that the US was responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed more than 160 girls, the New York Times reported, citing officials.
Mar 11, 2026 22:08 IST

Many Americans Declining Free Evacuation Flights, Says US State Dept​

The US State Department said a large number of Americans are declining free evacuation flights from West Asia. Many of those declining charter flight seats have opted to make their own travel plans or elected to stay in the region.

Mar 11, 2026 21:48 IST

Iran Claims It Has High-Speed Underwater Missiles​

A senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Iran has missiles that can be launched from underwater and suggested they could be used in the coming days, according to Iranian media.
US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Qatar Tech Store Owner Says Shipping Companies Charging Triple For Products
Khalifa Al Haroon, the owner of a leading tech store in Qatar, said shipping companies are charging three times the usual price for products due to the ongoing war, which has increased the cost for shipping upto 40% of the product value.
Mar 11, 2026 21:32 IST

Iran Refutes US Claims That It Depleted Missiles​

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has rebuffed US claims that it depleted Iran’s missile capabilities. “The initial waves of large-scale missile launches were intended to blind enemy radars and defence systems,” he said.

Mar 11, 2026 21:30 IST

Thailand Says 'Gravely Concerned' After Cargo Ship Hit In Hormuz​

Thailand’s Foreign Ministry said it was “gravely concerned” after a Thai ship heading for Kerala was hit by an Iranian attack in the Strait of Hormuz. It called for respecting the UN Charter and principles of international law, along with an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Mar 11, 2026 21:17 IST

Iran Exporting More Oil Through Hormuz Than Before War​

ran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
Mar 11, 2026 21:15 IST

German FM Holds Talks With Qatar, Calls Iranian Strikes 'Unacceptable'​

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul spoke to his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, during which he called Iranian missile and drone strikes “unacceptable.”

Mar 11, 2026 21:12 IST

Shipping Company Maersk Says It Is Redistributing Fuel To Ensure Energy Flows Shipping company Maersk said it was proactively redistributing fuel to ensure that vessels can continue their journeys and keep the ocean network running without interruptions.​

Mar 11, 2026 21:09 IST

South Korea To Release 22.46 Million Barrels From Emergency Oil Reserves​

South Korea’s Trade Ministry said it will release 22.46 million barrels from its emergency oil reserves, which it said represents 5.6% of the total reserves being released by International Energy Agency members.
Mar 11, 2026 21:02 IST

India Deplores Attack On Ship Bound For Kandla In Strait Of Hormuz​

The Ministry of External Affairs issued a strongly worded statement condemning a military attack on a Thai commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the targeting of civilian shipping in the ongoing West Asia conflict is escalating to dangerous new levels.
US Warns Citizens To Avoid Iranian Port Facilities
The US military has warned civilians in Iran to “immediately” avoid all port facilities along the Strait of Hormuz where Iranian naval forces are operating, according to a statement by the US Central Command

Mar 11, 2026 20:57 IST

Iran Sports Minister Says Nation Will Not Compete In 2026 World Cup​

A report by Al Jazeera said Iran’s Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali has ruled out the country’s participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, citing the ongoing war and the current national situation. Donyamali said there were “no conditions under which we can participate” in the tournament scheduled for June–July 2026.


Mar 11, 2026 20:25 IST

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise To 3.824M Barrels​

US crude oil inventories increased by 3.824 million barrels in the latest reporting period, compared with a previous build of 3.475 million barrels. Market estimates had expected a rise of about 2.5 million barrels.
The data provides a snapshot of US supply levels as global energy markets remain volatile amid geopolitical tensions.

Mar 11, 2026 19:59 IST
Trump Claims War With Iran Is ‘Going Great’, Says Conflict Could End Soon
US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran could end “soon”, claiming there is “practically nothing left to target”. Speaking in a brief phone interview with Axios, Trump said the war was “going great” and that US forces had inflicted more damage than initially expected.
“We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period,” he said.
Mar 11, 2026 19:45 IST

Iran Guards Say They Fired On Two ‘Israeli-Owned’ Vessels In Strait Of Hormuz​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its forces fired on two vessels described as “Israeli-owned” in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said the ships were targeted after attempting to pass through the strategic waterway despite warnings issued by Iranian authorities.
Mar 11, 2026 19:13 IST

No Need To Panic Or Pay Attention To Rumours, Says PM Modi In Tamil Nadu​

US-Israel-Iran War LIVE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi said there is no need for people to panic or pay attention to rumours. Speaking in Tamil Nadu, PM Modi urged citizens to remain calm and rely on verified information. He emphasised that unnecessary fear and misinformation should be avoided during sensitive situations.
Mar 11, 2026 19:08 IST

Iran Warns Of Continuous Strikes, Threatens Oil Supplies To US And Allies​

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters warned it could shift from “reciprocal hits” to continuous strikes against its adversaries.
Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for the headquarters, said Washington would not be able to control global oil prices if the conflict escalates.
“We won’t allow even one litre of oil to reach the US, Israel and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target,” he said.
Zolfaqari also warned that oil prices could surge sharply due to instability in the region.
“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilised,” he added.
Mar 11, 2026 18:44 IST

Iran Guards Say Ships Crossing Strait Of Hormuz Must 'Seek Permission'​

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must obtain permission before transiting the strategic waterway.
Mar 11, 2026 18:18 IST

S Jaishankar, Russian Counterpart Lavrov Discuss West Asia Conflict​

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said he held a teleconference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Jaishankar said the two leaders shared their assessments of the West Asia conflict and discussed related diplomatic efforts. He added that they also reviewed the agenda of bilateral cooperation between India and Russia.

Mar 11, 2026 18:10 IST

Russia Reportedly Helping Iran With Advanced Drone Tactics: Russia is assisting Iran with advanced drone tactics drawn from its war in Ukraine to target the United States and Gulf nations in the Middle East, CNN reported citing a Western intelligence official. The official said the support includes tactical guidance on the use of Shahed drones, which were designed by Iran but are mass produced by Russia for use in Ukraine.​

The drones have reportedly been unexpectedly successful in penetrating the air defences of several Gulf states. While Russian intelligence sharing with Iran had previously been described as general assistance with targeting, the official said the latest cooperation includes more specific operational guidance on unmanned aerial systems. Russia has used Shahed drones in Ukraine in coordinated waves, often launching multiple drones together and altering flight paths to evade air defence systems.
Mar 11, 2026 17:49 IST

US Says Operation Epic Fury Striking Thousands Of Iranian Military Targets​

US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said Operation Epic Fury has been targeting Iran’s military infrastructure since it was launched on February 28 at the direction of the US president. According to Cooper, the operation has struck thousands of targets, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, missile and drone sites, air defence systems and naval vessels. Satellite imagery released by the US military showed before-and-after views of a destroyed Iranian ship.
The operation involves more than 50,000 troops, over 200 aircraft, two aircraft carriers and bomber units.
Cooper said US forces have also defended against Iranian counterattacks with minimal impact on American forces so far. He added that the mission is ongoing and aimed at eliminating threats and preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, saying the operation has “only just begun”.
Mar 11, 2026 17:41 IST

Qatar Issues Another ‘Elevated’ Threat Alert, Urges Residents To Remain Indoors​

Qatar issued another “elevated” threat level alert, urging residents to remain indoors. The message marks the third such alert sent out in the country today.
Earlier, Qatar’s Defence Ministry said a missile attack had been intercepted.