The Clock In Islamabad Is Ticking. And The World Is Watching Anxiously...April 09, 2026 15:17 IST
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not.
Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
IMAGE: Iranians gather at night holding placards in Arabic expressing support for the people of Lebanon. Photograph: Kind courtesy @iribnews_irib/X
US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses
In the space of less than 48 hours, the much-hyped US-Iran 'ceasefire' has collapsed into a dangerous circus of contradictions, walk-backs, and fresh bloodshed even as big egos in Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran battle for narrative wins and domestic applause.
Here's how the script unfolded: Donald Trump, who had threatened to annihilate an entire civilisation started Tuesday 8 pm ET, needed a way to walk it back without appearing weak.
The US orchestrated a sequence where Pakistan floated a request for a two-week truce and Donald Trump 'graciously' accepted.
IMAGE: Rescuers search for survivors under rubble at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, April 9, 2026. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters
Israel Escalates Lebanon Strikes
Israel's political opposition pounced, slamming the deal as proof of weakness forced on the country.
Yair Lapid
called it (
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Benjamin Netanyahu washed his hands off it. He wasn't in the room, he said, and
only heard the details (
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Netanyahu's response was one of the
heaviest barrages (
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over 100 targets hit (
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Trump and J D Vance rushed to back that line. 'Misunderstanding,' Vance shrugged.
Lebanon was always a 'separate skirmish' -- never mind that Pakistan's announcement explicitly included it 'everywhere including Lebanon'.
IMAGE: Rescuers work at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, April 8, 2026. Photograph: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
Iran Retaliates Across Region
Israel couldn't hit Iran directly -- that would be too flagrant a flouting of America's will.
The UAE, tight with Netanyahu, played proxy and
launched an attack (
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Iran hit back at UAE facilities, including a reported hit on a water desalination plant in Kuwait. And, later last night,
launched a major missile attack (
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A drone hit Saudi Arabia's
critical east-west pipeline (
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Saudi Arabia doesn't seem to think Iran is responsible -- it
has confirmed (
external link) that it will not be part of any aggression against Iran, and that American aircraft are no longer using bases in that country.
Key Points
- US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within 48 hours amid conflicting narratives, renewed strikes, and widening regional tensions involving multiple actors.
- Israel escalated attacks in Lebanon, claiming exclusion from ceasefire, triggering heavy casualties and raising risks of broader conflict.
- Iran retaliated through regional strikes and shut the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying global energy market instability.
- Trump's shifting statements on ceasefire terms created confusion, weakening US credibility among allies and adversaries alike.
- Diplomatic talks in Islamabad face uncertainty as mistrust deepens, hardliners gain influence, and escalation risks continue rising.
IMAGE: Emergency personnel work near an impact site in central Israel, April 6, 2026, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran. Photograph: Nir Elias/Reuters
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens
Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again, declaring the Lebanese strikes a blatant violation of the truce.
Speaker Ghalibaf
in a statement (
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Iranian citizens
apparently agree (
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IMAGE: Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf comments on ceasefire violations, stating negotiations no longer hold meaning. Photograph: Kind courtesy @iribnews_irib/X
Pakistan agrees (
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Global oil markets, which had briefly sighed in relief, tensed up once more.
IMAGE: US President Donald John Trump speaks during a press conference at the White House, April 6, 2026. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Trump Flip-Flops Spark Confusion
Back in Washington, the flip-flops came thick and fast.
Trump said he had received Iran's 10-point plan, called it
a "workable basis" (
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even spoke of (
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Commentators, including MAGA-adjacent ones, called the deal a defeat for US interests. And Trump immediately reversed himself.
He first lashed out
at media outlets (
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most notably CNN (
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he called (
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He then said that the original US 15-point formula -- which Iran had categorically rejected last week -- is the only one on the table.
Three things are now clearer than they were 48 hours ago:
Trump's word is unreliable.
He swings wildly based on headlines, domestic politics, and how an announcement plays on social media.
Allies and adversaries alike now treat every US commitment as temporary and reversible.
Israel is determined to keep the pot boiling.
By immediately escalating in Lebanon and carving it out of the deal, Netanyahu signals that Israeli security priorities -- or political survival -- override any broader regional pause.
The risk of escalation sucking in more players is real and growing.
Iran's argument that both Israel and the US are unreliable got reinforced.
From Tehran's perspective, the rapid Israeli strikes, US clarifications, and quick reversal prove exactly what hardliners have long argued: neither Washington nor Tel Aviv negotiates in good faith.
That makes any talks in Pakistan starting Friday far harder, and strengthens the very voices in Iran who oppose compromise.
IMAGE: An Iranian man, injured in a strike on the B1 bridge, being treated at the Imam Ali Hospital in Karaj, Iran, April 3, 2026. Photograph: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
While these leaders posture, grandstand, and protect their images, the real cost is borne elsewhere: Families burying loved ones in Lebanon, energy prices threatening to spike again, global supply chains jittery, and the ever-present danger that one miscalculation can turn a fragile pause into a wider conflagration.
As delegations head to Islamabad, the question isn't just whether a real ceasefire can be salvaged.
It's whether any of the big players are actually interested in one, or whether they prefer perpetual managed tension that serves their narrow interests.
The clock is ticking. And the world is watching -- and paying -- for every twist and turn.
IMAGE: Iran's Foreign Minister Seyid Abbas Araghchi calls Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir over developments following Israeli actions in Lebanon. Photograph: Kind courtesy @iribnews_irib/X
IMAGE: The last remaining bridge linking southern Lebanon to the rest of the country after being struck in Qasmiyeh, April 9, 2026. Photograph: Reuters
36 Hours of Chaos: The Scramble for a Ceasefire in Iran: New York Times (
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The definitive tick-tock of how the deal came together and immediately began unravelling.
Trump sat behind the Resolute Desk listing bridges and power plants he was prepared to strike, was shown images of Iranians gathering in front of those same structures, and called their leaders 'evil' for putting civilians in harm's way.
Then Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir called to say Iran had agreed. Trump said if they agreed, America would too, and called Netanyahu only after the decision was made.
Less than 24 hours later, the fragile accord was showing signs of fraying, with the two sides unable to agree on even a shared set of goals for ending the war.
Trump's Conflicting Statements Sow Confusion on Iran Ceasefire [Bloomberg] (
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The clearest map of the post-ceasefire contradiction pile-up.
Trump first flagged Iran's 10-point proposal as a 'workable basis', then reversed after domestic blowback, with the White House calling it 'fundamentally unserious' and 'thrown in the garbage'.
He insisted the US 15-point formula was the only basis for talks, even though Iran had previously rejected it.
He announced a regime change that hadn't happened, offered a joint venture on Strait tolls, and
threatened 50 per cent tariffs (
external link) on countries supplying Iran with weapon, a move the supreme court's earlier tariff ruling may not permit.
IMAGE: A man gestures from a damaged building following an Israeli strike in Beirut, April 8, 2026. Photograph: Yara Nardi/Reuters
Disagreement Over Lebanon's Inclusion Threatens to Unravel Ceasefire: New York Times (
external link)
Farnaz Fassihi, who has covered Iran and Lebanon for decades, on why Tehran cannot afford to be seen abandoning Hezbollah.
Iran funds, trains and arms its 'axis of resistance' across the region; if it allows Israel to continue striking Lebanon while accepting a ceasefire, it sends every proxy the message that Iran won't have their back.
Israel attacked more than 100 targets in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing 180 people. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again in response.
The ceasefire's survival may depend on whether Trump is willing to pressure Netanyahu on Lebanon. And there is little sign that he is.
'Seems like losing': What the US Hasn't Won in Iran: Politico (
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American forces dominated the war tactically, sinking a large part of Iran's navy, crippling its missile and drone production, decimating its air defences.
Yet Iran's hardliners are still in charge, its enriched uranium stockpile is intact, and it has demonstrated effective control of the Strait of Hormuz.
"I don't know how the genie goes back in the bottle without the US massively redefining our strategic objectives," said one defence official.
Hegseth declared "historic and overwhelming victory."
An Asian diplomat's verdict was more concise: 'Declaring victory by saying he will attack Iran some more seems like losing.'
Trump Made a Deal That Gives Him Nothing He Wanted: The Atlantic (
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Nancy Youssef's definitive strategic ledger of the war.
Iran agreed only to reopen a strait that was freely navigable before the war began, and on terms that could yield substantial financial rewards, potentially $90 billion annually in transit fees.
Of Trump's stated war goals -- preventing a nuclear weapon, eliminating ballistic missile capabilities, enabling regime change, eradicating Iranian proxies -- none have been met.
Iran, Youssef argues, has discovered a deterrent cheaper and more durable than a nuclear weapon: The Strait itself.
'Controlling the Strait is now Iran's vital strategic asset. It's more important than their nuclear program,' says Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins.
In a War with No Winners, Netanyahu Looks Like the Biggest Loser: The Guardian (
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Peter Beaumont's forensic accounting of what Israel actually achieved.
Iran's ballistic missile {censored}nal was not eliminated. Its nuclear material remains.
The regime did not fall. The ceasefire was brokered between Washington and Tehran, and Israel was not in the room.
Netanyahu was still pushing Trump not to agree to a ceasefire two days before the announcement, and learned the details minutes before it went public.
'There has never been a political disaster like this in our entire history,' said Opposition leader Yair Lapid.
The question Beaumont poses at the end is the right one: having secured his long-sought war and seen it fail, what now is the point of Netanyahu?
Partner, Scapegoat or Spoiler? Israel's Place in a Fragile Ceasefire: The Economist (
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This is the sharpest framing of Israel's structural dilemma.
The ceasefire confirmed what the war made plain: Israel is a client state whose future security is now at the mercy of Trump's whims. It will not be part of the Islamabad negotiations.
Senior US officials, including the vice president, secretary of state, and the CIA chief, have already been quoted expressing pre-war reservations about Netanyahu's plans, a leak pattern that suggests Washington is beginning to distance itself.
Netanyahu can try to be the spoiler; he can try to stay Trump's partner. He cannot easily be both, and the October election is approaching.
In related reading, a PEW Research
survey shows (
external link) that among Americans, the negative view of Netanyahu is on the right.
Most worryingly for Trump and the Republicans, the rise is most marked in the 18-49 demographic, which is precisely what Trump relies on to power Republican wins.
And related to that,
PEW also puts numbers (
external link) to the obvious: For most Americans, rising gas prices are the top concern in the Iran war.
Israel Greets Iran Ceasefire with More Unease than Relief: Politico (
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From the streets of Tel Aviv, a portrait of a public that supported the war, absorbed its costs, and is now unsure what it was for.
'It's more damage for Israel. Nothing was bookended. Nothing was resolved,' said one resident.
A far-right coalition lawmaker briefly posted that Trump had 'come out a duck' -- Hebrew slang for looking weak -- then deleted it.
The mood is lighter than recent weeks, with families out for the last day of Passover, but the underlying anxiety is captured in one woman's summary: 'When the last war ended, we all knew another war was going to come. And now it just feels the same.'
A New Geopolitical Reality Is Here: The Atlantic (
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Thomas Wright on the adversary coalition that coalesced around Iran while Trump was busy scolding NATO.
China provided commercial satellite imagery of US military movements and sodium perchlorate for missile fuel.
Russia supplied targeting intelligence and advanced drone capabilities. The White House said Russian assistance 'does not really matter'.
Meanwhile Trump called out NATO, South Korea, Australia and Japan for not helping, even as he lifted oil sanctions on Russia and pursuing a trade deal with China.
The war has exposed, Wright argues, a United States moving toward a world of more connected opponents with a less cohesive coalition of its own.
Trump, the Demolition Man of Global Order: Japan Times (
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Brahma Chellaney's is the sharpest of the big-picture pieces.
What makes this moment historically unprecedented is not that global rules are being broken -- it is that they are being dismantled by the power that built them.
Previous disruptors such as Mao, Gadhafi, Saddam, Putin, all operated on the margins of the international system or in opposition to it. Trump is tearing the house down from inside.
"To the victor belong the spoils," he said of Iran's energy resources at his April 6 press conference.
That, Chellaney argues, is not geopolitics. It is neoimperial doctrine stated in plain language.
The Madness of the Madman Theory: Financial Times (
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Janan Ganesh elegantly demolishes the idea that Trump's erratic behaviour is strategic genius.
Nixon tried the Madman Theory in secret, against a country of no global economic significance, and still achieved next to nothing. He eventually bombed Cambodia and Laos and sullied the US more than it forced concessions.
Trump did it on social media, threatening to erase a civilisation, with the world's most critical waterway as the backdrop.
The theory has a structural flaw: if the threat is too extreme to be credible, it fails; if it is actually carried out, it again fails.
Four years after Nixon and Kissinger's Oval Office conversation, the North Vietnamese took Saigon.
The Third Gulf War Will Scar Energy Markets for a Long Time Yet: The Economist (
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The most rigorous energy piece in this collection, and essential reading for anyone tracking India's exposure.
Oil remains over 30 per cent above pre-war levels; gas is 40 per cent dearer. Some 715 vessels are stranded in the Gulf, including 187 tankers carrying 172 million barrels.
Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG plant, lost 17 per cent of capacity to Iranian strikes, with repairs potentially taking three to five years.
Even if the strait fully reopens, Rystad estimates that oil stays between $90-$100 a barrel through end-2026.
Asian economies, receiving roughly 80 per cent of the crude and 90 per cent of the LNG transiting Hormuz, will wait weeks for any relief.
The Economist's verdict: Do not bet that the relief energy traders are currently feeling will last.
How Pakistan Became a Major Player in Peace Negotiations: The New Yorker (
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Political scientist Aqil Shah's interview is the essential explainer on Asim Munir and how flattery became Pakistani foreign policy.
Munir called Trump a global peacemaker during the India-Pakistan crisis, publicly nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, presented a suitcase of rare earth minerals at the White House, and helped structure a crypto deal between Pakistan's military venture and the Trump family's World Liberty Financial.
'If there is anything Trump likes, it's enriching himself and his buddies,' Shah says, without mincing words.
This is also the clearest account of how Pakistan's long cultivation of the Afghan Taliban has spectacularly backfired, leaving the TTP firmly ensconced in Afghanistan and launching attacks on Pakistani cities.
Who is Asim Munir?South China Morning Post (
external link)
A useful companion to the
New Yorker piece: Shorter, more biographical, and valuable for the China dimension.
Munir visited Beijing between his two White House trips, meeting Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng.
Wang Yi later praised the Pakistani military as 'the ballast of national stability'.
Pakistan borders Iran, is 15 to 20 per cent Shia, has signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia that could theoretically draw it into the conflict, and nearly defaulted on its international debt a few years ago.
Every one of those facts shapes what Munir is trying to achieve in Islamabad this weekend.
IMAGE: An excavator clears debris at the site of an Israeli strike in Al-Mazraa, Beirut, April 9, 2026. Photograph: Raghed Waked/Reuters
Trump's Stone Age Mentality Endures: The New Yorker (
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I miss Ishaan Tharoor's almost daily columns on global affairs during his
Washington Post days -- but on the plus side, he is writing longer, if less frequently, in
The New Yorker. This piece is the perfect closing synthesis of all that has gone before.
Iran's civilisation still stands, Tharoor points out.
The US and Israel have spent billions, burned through critical munitions stockpiles, killed thousands, and damaged UNESCO World Heritage sites in Isfahan.
Iran has emerged, battered but intact, with demonstrated control of the world's most important waterway.
China, without firing a shot, may be the war's principal strategic beneficiary.
"America's friends are not just hoping for an early end to this war of choice," Malcolm Turnbull told the
Wall Street Journal.
'They also hope that America's fever breaks.' They shouldn't hold their breath.
IMAGE: People gather in Rasht marking the 40th night of Ayatollah Khamenei's martyrdom, carrying Iranian and Hezbollah flags. Photograph: Kind courtesy @iribnews_irib/X
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not.
Iran's hardliners are strengthened, not chastened. Netanyahu has every incentive to keep Lebanon burning.
Trump's commitments, as this week demonstrated, have a half-life measured in hours.
What began as military uncertainty is now diplomatic uncertainty, which is harder to read and at least as dangerous.
The clock in Islamabad starts Friday. Nobody seems to be sure what it is counting down to, though.
And, PS, Trump says his military is locked, loaded, currently resting, and
"looking forward to its next conquest". (
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