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Likely Impact of Capture of Afghanistan by Taliban on India

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

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Jan 3, 2010
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Likely Impact of Capture of Afghanistan by Taliban on India

Dr. Dalvinder Singh Grewal

Taliban has overrun Pakistan and taken over Kabul. President Abdul Ghani is on the run to the USA. Mulla Brother has taken over the reins. There is complete mayhem in Kabul, especially at Kabul airport. Afghans are running off to save themselves from the onslaught of the Taliban. Under these conditions, the Indians do not feel safe. It has vacated 129 but now the airport having been closed for civil flight, around 1000-1200 Indians are stuck in Kabul to be vacated to India. The situation under the new rule in Afghanistan needs to be evaluated.
Effect on Hindu and Sikh minorities
Around 250 Sikhs with families are now stuck up at Gurdwara Karte Parwan in Kabul to be safely evacuated. Taliban came at around midnight and asked the gates to be opened but the Sikh refused to open. SGPC chief secretary Harjinder Singh Dhami had warned that the security, safety, and lives of the Sikh community living in Afghanistan could be in danger and asked the Indian Government to intervene. The Taliban has allegedly removed Nishan Sahib, a Sikh religious flag, from the roof of a gurdwara in the Chamkani area of Paktia province in eastern Afghanistan which, however, has been denied by the Taliban. Gurdwara Thala Sahib holds historic significance as it was visited by Sri Guru Nanak Dev, founder of the Sikh religion. The Taliban has targeted Indians before. By engaging with the Taliban, India is in a better position to try to gain an understanding with the insurgents that they do not attack Indians in Afghanistan.
The last Sikh and Hindu families escaped from Ghazni to Kabul on Wednesday. The three families include two Sikh families (Surbeer Singh, his wife, and two daughters and Argeet Singh, his wife, and daughter) and 2 individuals, a married couple, from the Hindu community.
“We were aware that the Taliban were about to capture the city of Ghazni, therefore we left everything and came to Kabul to save our lives. This nightmare became true when the news of Taliban forces capturing the city of Kabul emerged. The chances of the situation getting worse in Kabul are also certain. After that we don’t know where we will go.” said Surbeer Singh, Ghazni resident to the volunteers of UNITED SIKHS.
Increasing fear of destruction and desecration of the Gurudwaras compelled Sikhs to remove the Saroop of Guru Granth Sahib Ji from Jalalabad and Ghazni to Kabul. Gurvinder Singh, International Director of Humanitarian Aid said, “At this point, we feel powerless to help the people of Afghanistan. We have written to the United States President Biden and Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. We have written to Minister Mendicino, Canada’s Minister of Refugees, Immigration, and Citizenship. We are advocating with MP’s in Australia. We desperately need the world community to step in and help."
Gurnam Singh, President of the Gurudwara Karte Parwan, Kabul spoke to the UNITED SIKHS team and said that the recent attacks in the major cities of Afghanistan have shaken the community. “We are scared for ourselves but we are concerned about the children who are with the families left in Kabul and Jalalabad. What will happen to them?”
He further stated “We request the Canadian Government to please immediately evacuate the remaining members of Hindu and Sikh minorities. We are ready to leave everything behind, anytime.” The situation in Jalalabad is deteriorating even more rapidly. Around 15 days ago, there was a bomb attack on Satpal Singh’s shop in Jalalabad. The attack left Satpal and his friends severely injured. “Today’s circumstances give me a flashback of how my father, Mar Singh, was killed in the attacks by Taliban,” said Jasbeer Singh, resident of Jalalabad. Only 15-16 families from the two religious minorities in Jalalabad remain in Afghanistan. They are desperately looking for a way to escape and seek immediate evacuation.
Effect on Indian Projects
India has played a vital role in rebuilding Afghanistan -- roads, bridges, hospitals, its parliament, etc. India has to preserve its interests. India has invested $3bn in projects in Afghanistan which include a dam, Parliament building, and road network which was inaugurated by PM Modi and the President of Afghanistan in 2016. So long as the current Afghan government remains in power, New Delhi's influence will endure. Even though the Taliban have promised that they will not disturb the work on various developmental projects and also they will not pursue the Kashmir cause, but where is the surety?
Effect on Terrorism in India
No doubt, the Taliban is the brainchild of ISI and fully helped, developed, and made effective into ruling Afghanistan by Pak Army, Pakistan will certainly want to keep its military and political hold on the Taliban even when they ruled Afghanistan. It is also clear that the Taliban are hard-core Muslim fundamentals and will carry on their agenda to make Afghanistan a Sunni hotbed for the future spread of Sunni Islam in the neighboring countries. The security of minorities and women will certainly be in danger and India’s vast developmental projects may be made ineffective, yet India should not expect that everything is over and it is the end of the road in Pakistan. Their action to let escape LeT supremo in Kabul during Bajpei Prime ministership during previous government is indicative of their attitude towards terrorists operating in India. Even if they do not pursue the Kashmir case openly, their sympathies will remain with the terrorists especially when ISI is involved. Also an overthrow of the Afghan government would really embolden regional militant groups in a big way. 'LeT and JeM could be emboldened, and prompted to replicate in Kashmir under the directions of the Pakistan Army as did the Taliban do in Afghanistan. ''Taliban resurgence will boost sleeper cells in India.'
Indian strategic requirement for dealing with India
India has not recognized the Taliban's legitimacy in the past. Ideologically, India and the Taliban are about as different as two entities can get. "All other key regional players had already recognized this earlier on. India was the last to come around to the importance of reaching out to the Taliban." One is that the Taliban flatly refuses New Delhi's outreach. Another, if the Taliban is receptive to engagement, is that Pakistan could fear that New Delhi is trying to drive a wedge between Pakistan and the Taliban. And this could have troubling implications for India-Pakistan relations. Since now Afghans are standing up themselves against the Taliban in considerable number, Afghanistan is set to become more unstable and violent. New Delhi's core interest will be ensuring the security of its interests and nationals in Afghanistan. There are several risks associated with India trying to engage with the Taliban. "The Taliban's strength -- already considerable -- will only increase once the US withdrawal is complete. So, it makes sense for India to try to have relations, even if only modest, with Afghanistan's most powerful non-state actor."
In view of the announcement of a new diplomatic front comprising the United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to enhance regional connectivity and trade India faces the risk of an erosion of influence in Afghanistan. But now they may have to formally reach out to the Taliban, given that the insurgents are no friends of New Delhi. The potential benefits of opening up communication channels with the Taliban however outweigh the potential costs. All other key regional players had already recognized this earlier on. India was the last to come around to the importance of reaching out to the Taliban. The new four-nation diplomatic initiative is significant because it shows that Pakistan's efforts to pursue its vision of a more geoeconomics-focused foreign policy have legs.
India’s role in bringing peace to the region
India took over the presidentship of the UNO Security Council took up the case of Afghanistan for discussion on Friday on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. India attends Afghan meet as the Taliban march continues. It arguably has closer relations with Kabul than does any other country in the region. It's true, though, that India's influence on regional diplomacy on Afghanistan has to this point been marginal -- especially as so much of it has been led by China and especially Pakistan. New Delhi is trying to step up its game on regional diplomacy, but its role in the peace and reconciliation process will necessarily be limited. And this is an irony, given that it has such close ties to the Afghan government.
It's also a rare success by the US in trying to encourage more Afghanistan-Pakistan cooperation -- long a goal of Washington's. But its influence shouldn't be overstated. It's more of an aspirational initiative than a formal agreement -- the idea is to look toward cooperating on peace, stability, and connectivity.
But so long as Afghanistan remains at war, it's hard to imagine much forward movement. Those that call it an 'alternate quad' are wildly overstating its capacities and influence. An enhanced role of China and Pakistan in Afghanistan be detrimental to India's strategic interests.
It doesn't bode well for Indian interests. New Delhi confronts a reality where many of the key regional players are either rivals of India (China and Pakistan) or friends that have lost some momentum in their relations with India (Iran, Russia, Turkey). New Delhi is intended to get around this problem by ramping up its broader regional diplomatic efforts and participating on high levels in discussions on Afghanistan within large multilateral forums.
The good news for India is that it is a member of many of the key Afghanistan-focused forums -- such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process. Additionally, India has a short-lived opportunity to play a leadership role in Afghanistan through its brief presidency of the UN Security Council, which began on August 1.
Russia has been developing closer ties with Pakistan. Russia's growing proximity to Pakistan poses difficulties for India. Growing Russia-Pakistan ties are another indication of India's diplomatic challenges with Afghanistan. Russia-Pakistan interests align in Afghanistan more than do Russia-India interests. Moscow is less concerned than is New Delhi about the specter of a Taliban government; for the Russians, ISIS-Khorasan -- which counts Central Asian militants among its members -- is arguably a greater concern. It's no coincidence that Pakistan-Russia relations have grown closer at the same time that US-India relations have really taken off, and US-Russia relations have continued to get worse. But what's notable in the Afghanistan context is that the US has decoupled its tensions with Russia from broader regional diplomacy efforts in Afghanistan.
It's no small matter that the US has participated in the Afghanistan-focused 'Troika Plus' initiative that also features Pakistan, China, and Russia. Ultimately, this grouping underscores the challenges India faces in becoming a more influential regional player on Afghanistan issues.
The best bet is to do everything possible to push for a political settlement that ends the war. But for now at least, New Delhi has limited ability to do so.
The next best option, which India is likely already pursuing, based on its recent outreach to the Taliban, is to find a way to convince the Taliban not to target Indian interests in Afghanistan.
Afghans in general perhaps have the greatest regard for Indians giving an advantage to India to bring India's attempts at reshaping its Afghan policy.
It's definitely an asset. But I fear it's a misplaced asset, given that it doesn't help India with its prime goal of the moment: Becoming a more influential player in regional diplomatic efforts focused on peace and reconciliation.
The strong support that India enjoys among Afghans can potentially be helpful with New Delhi's initial outreach to the Taliban.
If New Delhi is in a position to convey to the Taliban its desire that Indian interests not be targeted, it can argue that the Taliban risks alienating local communities if it tries to undermine or otherwise imperil Indian activities and interests in Afghanistan.
To be sure, the Taliban isn't exactly beholden to Afghan public opinion. But if it truly cares about legitimacy and wants to demonstrate that it really has the interests of common Afghans in mind, then it should acknowledge the Afghan public's high regard for Indians and refrain from doing anything against India.
The ascent of the Taliban will certainly embolden terror groups operating in PoK and Afghan mercenary jihadi activity across the LoC into India.
The Taliban is an Afghanistan-focused group, and so it won't call on regional militants to pursue the Kashmir cause.
But the Taliban's advances and territorial seizures are inspiring these regional militants, and an overthrow of the government would really embolden these other groups in a big way.
So there's certainly cause for concern. The likes of LeT (Lashkar e Tayiba) and JeM (Jaish e Mohammad) could be emboldened and prompted to replicate in Kashmir what the Taliban did in Afghanistan.
The big question here is Pakistan. Would it try to keep these groups on a tight leash, as it generally has in recent years amid strong pressure from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and other international bodies? Or would it encourage them to act? The answer depends on what Pakistan's status within FATF would be.
Islamabad is less likely to collude with India-focused militants if it's still trying to get itself off the FATF watch list. The answer also depends on the state of India-Pakistan relations. If tensions are deep, Islamabad will have less to lose by sending militants across the border.
 

A_seeker

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Jun 6, 2018
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The development is not good for stability of the region .Americas 20 years involvement in Afghanistan has proven to be inconsequential. For India its a Wait & Watch kind of situation .While several countries are rushing for the evacuation of their citizens ,the commitment of GOI in evacuating members of minority community has been so far:
  • 150+ Afghans Sikhs rescued .
  • Three Guru Granth Sahib rescued .
  • Sikhs who wanted to go to US or Canada now want to come to India as Refugees .
 

Dalvinder Singh Grewal

Writer
Historian
SPNer
Jan 3, 2010
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Taliban have certain rogue elements in them. Also other groups like ISIS, LTTE TTP also have infiltrated Afghanistan and tried to create problems for Indians and their assets in Afghanistan. There is a likely hood that not only these groups but also the Taliban directed by ISI and China may interfere in Kashmir. In view of this India will have to keep a continuous eye on Afghanistan developments.
 

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