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Meltdown!

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 17-Sep-2008, 00:26 AM
Sinister's Avatar Sinister Sinister is offline
 
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Meltdown!

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Financial meltdown is underway

thoughts? anticipations? oppurtunities?
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/business-and-lifestyle/23091-meltdown.html

with;
Bear Sterns
Lehman
Fannie
Freddie
Washington Mutual

all down the drain!


Do you guys think American international Group (AIG) will tank?

the implications of such a large insurance company going under is dier, the scar would loom on the market for a long time and would create an absolute mess.
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091

will government step in to finance their debt? perhaps a foriegn government if not the US?

scary times...hold your breath for to long and you'll die of asphyxiation

cheers


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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 17-Sep-2008, 05:25 AM
pk70's Avatar pk70 pk70 is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

the implications of such a large insurance company going under is dier, the scar would loom on the market for a long time and would create an absolute mess.
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091

will government step in to finance their debt? perhaps a foriegn government if not the US? ( quote Sinister Ji)

Yes, it will be saved, as you are aware of it, AIG has 3 trillion dollars in assets and is a significant Giant of job provider, and its doom could be an unbearable impact on U.S economy and all other related to it. So, you bet, the Govt. will support it. Fed has decided not to cut interest rates (even a quarter) obviously is a hint of another possible fear of inflation too. With a limited knowledge on all this, I feel U.S. will remain in recession for some time to come but will survive as many other players in this game would not like to go in to drain especially China etc. What will happen to India in this context?
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Old 17-Sep-2008, 11:11 AM
Sinister's Avatar Sinister Sinister is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

Quote:
Originally Posted by pk70 View Post
the implications of such a large insurance company going under is dier, the scar would loom on the market for a long time and would create an absolute mess.

will government step in to finance their debt? perhaps a foriegn government if not the US? ( quote Sinister Ji)

Yes, it will be saved, as you are aware of it, AIG has 3 trillion dollars in assets and is a significant Giant of job provider, and its doom could be an unbearable impact on U.S economy and all other related to it. So, you bet, the Govt. will support it. Fed has decided not to cut interest rates (even a quarter) obviously is a hint of another possible fear of inflation too. With a limited knowledge on all this, I feel U.S. will remain in recession for some time to come but will survive as many other players in this game would not like to go in to drain especially China etc. What will happen to India in this context?

well, it got saved...just took $85 billion from tax payers...but its core business is safe. but, i think the shareholders are still going to take a beating...the Fed is getting 80% control of AIG (basically a takeover)...shareholders are going to get burnt in tomorrows trading session ...as of tomorrow they will only hold 20% of the company assets. (still better than 0% however)

to anyone still holding this stock ...two words...DUMP IT!


pk70,
I think its a good decision fed didnt cut rates...I think it would have created a panic sell scenario (would have made the central bank look desparate)

It's simple ...If america slows-down...other countries get hammered as well. Especially emerging markets that cater to north america... India and China (we have already seen china lose huge amounts of value in the SSE index...major corrections)

and its not just America that is in trouble ...All of Western Europe has the hickups as well. The British housing sector is incredibly soft.

one reliable sign of global slowdown is the recent correction in commodities ... we got oil hovering at 92-95$ from the year high at $140 (something i was predicting would happen)... I think we will be seeing significant decreases in demand for almost all resources, oil, food, coal, metals...all indicators point that this is going to be a global event.

how long?
i'd give it another year and a half to settle down, American markets can only pick up once the liquidity situation improves and all this ambiguity/jitters are put to rest.

good time to be shorting oil
or going long on natural gas (which gets interesting day by day).

are you familiar with the anti-gurmat saying: "get rich or die trying"?

Godspeed pk70 Godspeed!
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 17-Sep-2008, 22:02 PM
pk70's Avatar pk70 pk70 is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

I think its a good decision fed didnt cut rates...I think it would have created a panic sell scenario (would have made the central bank look desparate)(quote sinister ji)
You are right Sinister ji, Fed didn’t cut interest rate due to panic reaction, look what has happened on Market after AIG bail out, had Fed did it, it could have been worse.
Go for Gold only! It is possible; it can hit $ 900 level. We are passing through “certainties of uncertainties!” With in 18 months or so, it would bounce back to recovery, how much, it is still uncertain…..
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091
one reliable sign of global slowdown is the recent correction in commodities ... we got oil hovering at 92-95$ from the year high at $140 (something i was predicting would happen[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Gurdeep/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image001.gif[/IMG])... I think we will be seeing significant decreases in demand for almost all resources, oil, food, coal, metals...all indicators point that this is going to be a global event.
I concur. Actually Real Estate was abnormally inflated compared to any commodity (except oil) so it is also playing role in this melt down. I wonder why there is no correction in Indian Real Estate because that inflated by breaking economics rules. It stopped going up but still it is far from getting corrected (may be the black money is at its back); however, the Indian stock market got corrected.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 18-Sep-2008, 00:08 AM
Sinister's Avatar Sinister Sinister is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

Quote:
Originally Posted by pk70 View Post
I think its a good decision fed didnt cut rates...I think it would have created a panic sell scenario (would have made the central bank look desparate)(quote sinister ji)
You are right Sinister ji, Fed didn’t cut interest rate due to panic reaction, look what has happened on Market after AIG bail out, had Fed did it, it could have been worse.
Go for Gold only! It is possible; it can hit $ 900 level. We are passing through “certainties of uncertainties!” With in 18 months or so, it would bounce back to recovery, how much, it is still uncertain…..
one reliable sign of global slowdown is the recent correction in
... did you see what happened to Russia's "emerging market" today?...it got HAMMERED! no market is immune to this!

Good Call...im bullish on gold now Look at what its doing today!...INSANE, it could go well past 900

i am tracking gold with USG...i nibbled in today and was thinking of day trading it and selling before the session closed ...but after this enormous rally I think it would be silly to sell... ill be holding for a little longer...until the certainty of uncertainty subsides :p

hmmm...Indian real-estate?...dont know how its going to hold up with all this but chances are that it will soften as well (i think it has softened since the Akali's took power) (Akali=bad economics, period). Punjab still looks lucrative for NRI's but my confidence in investing is rather weak. Foreign investment confidence is a term you rarely hear in Punjab... buying property is a jittery process for any NRI (my father has had some bad experiences in the past). Lots of Red tape and lots of property crime. Granted the returns are lucrative.

I'm not tough enough... to invest into something like that.

cheers

aside: what do you think of financial ETF's? xlf, uyg? they sure look nice and ripe for picking...not to mention they are safer than investing in a single banking institution during these uncertain times.
xlf ~ $18.50 (10 year low)
uyg~ $16.50 (52 week low)

i think these could easily double your money in 5 years and xlf is giving a nice 3% dividend yield.

saddle up ...this is going to be a crazy slowdown.
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Old 18-Sep-2008, 07:27 AM
pk70's Avatar pk70 pk70 is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

aside: what do you think of financial ETF's? xlf, uyg? they sure look nice and ripe for picking...not to mention they are safer than investing in a single banking institution during these uncertain times.
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091
xlf ~ $18.50 (10 year low)
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091
uyg~ $16.50 (52 week low)( quote Sininster ji)


Not a bad idea but is it the right time? Or should Waite for a little more shaking because time being, financial area is very fragile as all are so correlated to this mess. Some say Google, IBM, Yahoo will rebound, but it appears not. This is the time to watch very carefully. Diversified products are the only a good bet now. I am aware you are doing a lot of research on it. Fidelity is recommending TX, COP. I just cannot believe them either. So be careful
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Old 20-Sep-2008, 05:30 AM
Sinister's Avatar Sinister Sinister is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

Quote:
Originally Posted by pk70 View Post
aside: what do you think of financial ETF's? xlf, uyg? they sure look nice and ripe for picking...not to mention they are safer than investing in a single banking institution during these uncertain times.
xlf ~ $18.50 (10 year low)
uyg~ $16.50 (52 week low)( quote Sininster ji)


Not a bad idea but is it the right time? Or should Waite for a little more shaking because time being, financial area is very fragile as all are so correlated to this mess. Some say Google, IBM, Yahoo will rebound, but it appears not. This is the time to watch very carefully. Diversified products are the only a good bet now. I am aware you are doing a lot of research on it. Fidelity is recommending TX, COP. I just cannot believe them either. So be careful

UYG just went to $22 today... up $5.50 in 2 days!

XLF is at $22 up from 18.00

ughhh....if only i had bought more (i always buy in increments to cut back on the risk)...i was able keep my 'greed factor' under control......and it cost me short term)...oh well, souldnt be complaining about trivial things...rules are rules when it comes to disciplined investing.

im not getting too excited or cocky... i think these are just short term gains...we might see another crunch....perhaps another buying oppurtunity. keep eyes open at all times

Another ETF play i like .... UNG (united states natural gas fund)
with natural gas corrected at 7.85 per 1k cf
this security is trading at $34.48 ... it can easily hit $45+ if old man winter does his thing and natural gas goes to $12+ per 1k cf

im planning/willing to chase this etf all the way down to the 30.00 dollar range....its totally worth it and i dont see much downside right now...cant go wrong (people always need natural gas)

its a toss up between this and PDS (precision drilling)...great company that specializes in drilling (also tied to natural gas) its yielding quite a bit and is at it low end.

so much to buy...so little money

i feel like i only have one foot on the train and the conductor is yelling ALLL ABOARDD!!!!
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 20-Sep-2008, 08:06 AM
pk70's Avatar pk70 pk70 is offline
 
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Re: Meltdown!

Another ETF play i like .... UNG (united states natural gas fund)
with natural gas corrected at 7.85 per 1k cf
this security is trading at $34.48 ... it can easily hit $45+ if old man winter does his thing and natural gas goes to $12+ per 1k cf

im planning/willing to chase this etf all the way down to the 30.00 dollar range....its totally worth it and i dont see much downside right now...cant go wrong (people always need natural gas)
Reference:: Sikh Philosophy Network http://www.sikhphilosophy.net/showthread.php?t=23091

its a toss up between this and PDS (precision drilling)...great company that specializes in drilling (also tied to natural gas) its yielding quite a bit and is at it low end.

so much to buy...so little money

i feel like i only have one foot on the train and the conductor is yelling ALLL ABOARDD!!!!


Another ETF play i like .... UNG (united states natural gas fund)
with natural gas corrected at 7.85 per 1k cf
this security is trading at $34.48 ... it can easily hit $45+ if old man winter does his thing and natural gas goes to $12+ per 1k cf

im planning/willing to chase this etf all the way down to the 30.00 dollar range....its totally worth it and i dont see much downside right now...cant go wrong (people always need natural gas)

its a toss up between this and PDS (precision drilling)...great company that specializes in drilling (also tied to natural gas) its yielding quite a bit and is at it low end.

so much to buy...so little money

i feel like i only have one foot on the train and the conductor is yelling ALLL ABOARDD!!!! (quote Sinister ji)
Some of your ideas were right on the money! Were excellent for grumpy investors !
Some programs of Money market portfolios are backed with guarantee from the Fed with borrowed money most likely from China. That is good one. I am almost out of this game. My preferences are changed. You are definitely on it regardless how much money power is at your command, and you will do good. Wish you the best.
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Old 21-Sep-2008, 09:32 AM
Narayanjot Kaur's Avatar Narayanjot Kaur Narayanjot Kaur is offline
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Re: Meltdown!

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Natural gas is going to become very important -- the oil crisis is not going to get better. T. Boone Pickens is spearheading a project -- you see him on cable all the time with an extensive ad -- promoting alternative sources of energy in the US. And natural gas is on the top of his list as an under utilized resource. There is a lot of it and re-engineering vehicles to make use of it will take the creative imagination and leadership that we are not seeing a lot of right now.

BTW -- I think meltdown is right. Slowdown -- no. We are now facing a complete, drastic, structural, and probably traumatic, transformation of several financial sectors of the economy in the United States. It is going to cause social and economic upheaval not unlike that following the Industrial Revolution.

And think about it -- the government is now more than a friend and major partner, but a part owner of major sectors of the economy: banks and insurance companies. This is called what ???? in political theory?

Stay tuned for major disturbances in retirement funds, ******** markets, the small business sector. No credit -- no college loans, no ********s, no short term loans to small business who need cash flow. The auto industry is also going south right now. We are going to see widespread unemployment and distressed real estate markets. How can you sell property if buyers can't get loans. And loans are going to be in short supply because of what has happened to money market funds -- the once safe investment that was "too conservative."

Note -- I am clueless as to why the word ******** is all asterisks. The word that is being automatically deleted is what you apply for when you want to buy a house.
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