Well there you have it....Citigroup closes and $4.71 down 26.41%today....its on fire..they need to suspend the shortselling and ramp it up with cash...the only good news is a Saudi Prince increased his stake in the company...and after that good news it fell like a rock.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aad0002 Sinister ji
Just one exception-- You probably won't see Bank of America go under. They were there to the rescue during the Depression as a privately held bank in San Francisco. Today their policies are so stringently conservative that they will probably make it. |
I hope there is more than one exception!

...or else we are going to be in tremendous trouble.
Comparing these banks to their performance 80 years ago during the depression should not be consolation of any sort. Even "honourable" and "conservative" insititutions like AIG, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia and Bear Sterns survived the Great Depression, only to go bankrupt now. These institutions are structured completely different in the 21st century and this crisis is very different from the great depression.
Yes... BAC has been in good shape because of its conservative banking practices. It positioned itself with a low amount of collaterized debt obligations by limiting exposure to the housing sector and it has a tremendous amount of liquidity. But, it has been pounded this last month as well...it has lost 50% of its market cap in just the last month...right now its trading at a dispicable $11.25 (a 20 year low for this company). Maybe the Meryll Lynch (another bank that survived the great depression but not this collapse) takeover was a bad idea?
If citigroup goes under, nothing is "safe" anymore. If you were to take the entire worlds money supply and come up with a number that is how much capital flows into and out of citi in a period of 72hours. The amount transactions going through this bank are phenomenal. The loss of this type of institution will send the market into unchartered waters.
Look at Europe, conservative banks like Deutsche Bank, ING, RBS, Lyods groups, Barclays are in horrendous shape...much of them nationalized already...after shedding an excess of 50% of their market cap each.
the U.S banking sector will never look the same, whatever banks do survive will be shackled by regulators, they will rebound very slowly, and they might get mopped up by emerging eastern banks or the Canadians!
the parties over....lets wait and see who goes under first... the auto sector or citigroup.
slow recovery (provided we find a bottom in this market)
c h e e r s